Prof. Dr. To Trung Thanh: Promoting internal strength for high economic growth in 2025

What is your assessment of Vietnam's economic growth prospects in the current context?

It can be seen that in 2024, although Vietnam's economy has a good growth rate and has returned to the growth trajectory before the Covid pandemic in 2019, the growth model is still based on extensive foundations, the quality of growth has not improved much. New growth drivers such as innovation and digital economy contribute to growth but are still limited.

Besides, the economy is being hurt by economic instability from the world, the problem related to environmental unsustainability is still present.

Given the characteristics of the economy, if Vietnam wants to grow rapidly in the near future, it needs to be very careful about macroeconomic instability. If it wants to grow sustainably in the long term with the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, economic institutional reform is a key factor, which can be said to be the driving force of new growth drivers.

As you mentioned, institutional reform is an important driver of economic growth. Could you elaborate on this driver?

Currently, although Vietnam's economic institutions have been improved in the direction of a socialist-oriented market economy and have created a very good environment for economic production and business, there are still certain limitations and especially the institutions are still hesitant to respect market principles, and there are still traditional intervention solutions. In my opinion, these are very important areas for institutional reform in both the economy and the state management apparatus. This will be the pillar for economic growth in the next period.

My recommendation is to build a legal system for the economy in a way that still ensures the management role of the state but more importantly supports the development of the private economic sector, abandoning the mindset of "if it can't be done, then ban it".

Second, it is necessary to increase policy implementation capacity.

Third is to reduce administrative management, creating a transparent and equal environment for all economic sectors to develop.

One of the issues that many people are concerned about now is the imposition of US tariffs on Vietnamese goods and we are still in the process of negotiating . From an economic expert's perspective, what recommendations do you have in case we do not reach a number that is beneficial to the economy?

The US imposition of a 46% reciprocal tax on Vietnamese goods (currently postponed for 90 days) can be said to be a huge shock if we do not have good negotiation results, because it affects both exports and the FDI sector. These are also important resources for economic growth in recent years. Therefore, it is clear that economic growth will be greatly affected, not only in terms of employment and income but also in terms of macroeconomic instability, exchange rates, inflation and interest rates. Policy management will also be more difficult to ensure good growth in the coming time.

In the context of the world economy with many unpredictable fluctuations, this is also an opportunity for Vietnam to promote internal driving forces such as the private economy and domestic consumption.

Therefore, in the context of the world with many uncertainties and fluctuations, this is an opportunity for us to focus on the domestic economic sector. The private economy must be considered the most important economic sector to increase internal capacity, creating flexibility to cope with the macroeconomic instability in the world.

At the same time, we need to diversify our export markets. Currently, Vietnam has many free trade agreements (FTAs) and this is an opportunity to take advantage of these agreements. Focusing on a single market will clearly make the economy vulnerable when instability occurs.

In addition, Vietnam also needs to restructure the production chain and increase domestic production. Domestic consumption also needs to be focused on and promoted, making it an important driving force for economic growth.

Current policies show that there is still room to improve domestic consumption through increased public spending or selective tax cuts. This is a very important point to increase private consumption, improve the internal momentum of the economy, and support growth in the coming time.

Thank you!

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/gsts-to-trung-thanh-phat-huy-noi-luc-de-tang-truong-kinh-te-cao-trong-nam-2025-162680.html