VPI forecasts gasoline prices to continue to decrease in the operating period on November 21

The Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that, in the operating period on November 21, gasoline prices will continue to decrease by 0.3 - 1.6% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 255 VND (1.3%) to 19,195 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by 201 VND (1%) to 20,399 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that this period, diesel prices may decrease by 1.6% to VND18,277/liter, kerosene prices are forecast to decrease by 0.9% to VND18,804/liter, and fuel oil may only decrease slightly by 0.3% to VND15,948/kg. VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

In the world market, in the early afternoon of November 19 (Vietnam time), the price of North Sea Brent crude oil for January 2025 delivery decreased by 2 US cents to 73.28 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, the price of US light sweet crude oil (WTI) for December 2024 delivery decreased by 3 US cents to 69.13 USD/barrel. However, both types of oil increased by more than 2 USD/barrel in the previous session, after Norwegian company Equinor said it had stopped production at the Johan Sverdrup oil field, the largest oil field in Western Europe, due to an onshore power outage. The Norwegian Ministry of Energy said the repairs were expected to be completed by Saturday (November 23).

In addition, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, Tengiz, operated by Chevron, has cut production by about 30% for repairs, reducing global supplies. In addition, at least three refineries in Russia have had to suspend operations or reduce capacity due to losses, a source said.

Notably, China's oil refining output fell 4.6% year-on-year in October, while the country's industrial output growth slowed last month.

According to the latest forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply will exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels/day in 2025, even if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producers (OPEC+ group) maintain their production cut plan.

In addition, instability in global financial markets is also a factor affecting oil prices, as investors are concerned about the speed and extent of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

According to VNA

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dau-tiep-tuc-giam-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-21-11/20241120084904175