Good Time to Start Accumulating Stocks for 2024

The market is finding equilibrium

After a 10.9% decline in October, the analysis team from VNDIRECT Securities Company assessed that the market is looking for a balance zone. Short-term investors should limit bottom fishing and wait for more positive macro and market signals. VNDIRECT expects the 1,000 point (+/- 20 points) zone to be the support zone for the general market.

According to VNDIRECT, short-term investors can trade actively again when the market satisfies the following factors. First, the market has a leading stock flow and attracts cash flow (forming a bottom before VN-Index). Second, the bottoming sessions have trading liquidity at least 1.2 times larger than the 20-session average and a good increase. The following trading sessions will have continued to improve liquidity. Third, cautious investors can trade when VN-Index escapes the downtrend channels and moves above the MA lines.

EVS Securities Company has proposed two scenarios based on current analysis and conditions. For the positive scenario (50% probability), after establishing a bottom, VN-Index will move sideways to accumulate and tighten supply. There will be reasonable recovery periods with the discount rate in the past two months.

In the second, more cautious scenario (50% chance), when VN-Index shows signs of recovery, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity of the selling side to make investment decisions or reduce the proportion of stocks because the pressure of supply from the 1,200 point area is very large.

US government bond yields peak, stocks will recover

The group of experts from VNDIRECT assessed that the biggest current market risk comes from the rising US government bond yield. When the US government bond yield peaks, the stock market will have a good chance of recovering.

The risk of a US recession was mentioned when the US bond yield curve inverted. However, experts said that current macroeconomic data did not clearly show that, so it was not a cause for concern and continued to be monitored.

"Although the short-term risks of the market still exist, with the valuation discount almost equivalent to the mid-term bottom in November 2022 and the COVID-19 bottom. This is a good time for medium and long-term investors to start accumulating stocks for 2024" - VNDIRECT said.

In that context, investors should note to limit the use of margin leverage to disburse stocks in the medium and long term. Do not invest in a single stock or industry group. Avoid investing a large amount of money at one time. Investors can divide long-term investments into many parts and disburse slowly or apply the method of disbursing assets.

Potential stocks include stocks that benefit from the export recovery story and public investment stocks. In addition, there are some real estate stocks with healthy financial status that will break out in the coming period when the group of bills (amended) related to the real estate industry is officially approved by the National Assembly and takes effect.

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