Slight increase of nearly 1%, high inventory output

Opening the morning trading session on April 10, 2024, today's gas price in the world market increased by 0.85% to 1.88 USD/mmBTU for natural gas contracts for delivery in May 2024.

Gas pipelines

U.S. natural gas futures rose about 1% on forecasts that demand will be higher than previously expected this week and output will continue to fall as producers cut drilling activity after gas prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

Analysts expect gas inventories to be about 37% higher than normal for this time of year.

Gas prices fell to a 3-1/2-year low earlier this year, prompting drillers to cut the number of gas rigs operating in gas-producing basins like the Haynesville shale in Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas. Haynesville, for example, cut two rigs last week, leaving 34 rigs operating, the fewest since August 2020.

The region has weathered a second winter without Russian gas and gas reserves remain at 59%, thanks to pipeline imports from Norway and by sea from the United States, according to the European Gas Infrastructure Industry Agency.

According to ICIS, gas storage will be 95% full by early September this year – far exceeding the EU target of 90% by November. This abundance of gas means market prices will continue to fall.

Initial forecasts suggest that the European benchmark gas price could fall to an average of €28.32/MWh during the summer months – down more than 17% from last summer’s average. That would still be more than double the average of €11.58/MWh in summer 2019.

“Industrial gas demand this year will remain 20% below pre-pandemic levels,” said Marzec-Manser, head of gas analysis at data provider ICIS. “Despite gas being more affordable, demand for the product has been depressed by the cost of living crisis, which means industrial gas demand has not yet recovered.”

In the domestic market, retail gas prices in April have "turned around" and decreased slightly since April 1. Accordingly, gas companies will reduce prices for 12kg gas cylinders by 4,500 - 5,000 VND/cylinder.

Specifically, the retail price of Petrolimex gas cylinders (including VAT) in April 2024 in the Hanoi market is 456,100 VND/12 kg household cylinder; 1,824,300 VND/48 kg industrial cylinder, respectively decreasing by 4,640 VND/12 kg cylinder and 18,460 VND/48 kg cylinder (including VAT).

Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City Petroleum Company Limited (Saigon Petro) said that from April 1, Saigon Petro gas price will decrease by 4,500 VND/12kg cylinder, the maximum retail price to consumers will not exceed 438,500 VND/12kg cylinder.

The reason for this price reduction is that the average world gas price contract in April 2024 was at 617.5 USD/ton, down 17.5 USD/ton compared to March 2024, so domestic adjustments were made according to the corresponding reduction.

Thus, since the beginning of the year, domestic gas prices have increased 3 times (January, February, March) and decreased once (April).

Information is for reference only!

Source