In 2024, natural disasters continue to develop abnormally.

Due to the impact of climate change, natural disasters occurring nationwide in 2023 are extreme, abnormal and irregular. Typically, the global average temperature is the hottest year in the past 174 years, about 1.45°C higher than the average temperature of many years in the pre-industrial period. Notably, no storms will make landfall in our country in the 2023 storm season.

The Vanh Dai irrigation canal in Tan My and Tan Khanh Trung communes, Lap Vo district, Dong Thap province has some sections with exposed bottom.

According to Deputy Director General of Meteorology and Hydrology Hoang Duc Cuong, in 2023, due to the influence of El Nino phenomenon, meteorological and hydrological developments are quite complicated. There are abnormal natural disasters, such as extremely heavy rain in the area from Quang Tri province to Binh Dinh province.

In particular, in Thua Thien Hue province, some places had more than 1,000 mm of rain, causing widespread flooding; flash floods and landslides occurred in many mountainous areas, especially in Ha Giang, Lao Cai, Yen Bai, Lam Dong provinces; many storms and whirlwinds accompanied by large waves sank ships, leaving many fishermen missing; high tides accompanied by large waves caused coastal erosion, causing considerable difficulties in forecasting.

Commenting on the natural disaster situation in 2024, Deputy Director General Hoang Duc Cuong added that from the beginning of the year, natural disasters have occurred in a complex and abnormal manner, such as a widespread cold spell lasting from February to March, with low temperatures in the Northern Delta below 15 ^degrees Celsius and in mountainous areas below 13 ^degrees Celsius, long-term heat waves in the Southern region, and increased salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, greatly affecting people's lives and agricultural production.

Since the beginning of the year, natural disasters have occurred in a complex and unusual manner, such as a widespread cold spell lasting from February to March, with low temperatures in the Northern Delta below 15 ^degrees Celsius and in mountainous areas below 13 ^degrees Celsius, prolonged heat waves in the Southern region, and increased salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, greatly affecting people's lives and agricultural production.

Deputy General Director Hoang Duc Cuong

According to the assessment of Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Hoang Phuc Lam, El Nino will weaken and move to a neutral phase, then quickly transition to La Nina in the summer of 2024, with about 80-85% of El Nino ending in April to June 2024; about 60-65% of La Nina will start around July to August 2024.

The possibility of storms and tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea is similar to the average of many years, around the second half of June 2024. The number of tropical depressions in the East Sea and affecting our country is likely to be less than or equal to the average of many years, but will be concentrated in the second half of the rainy and stormy season.

From now until June, in the north, total rainfall will be approximately equal to or lower than the average of many years, in the south it will generally be lower than the average of many years; in the last 6 months of the year, rainfall will be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years, especially in the Central region and the southern provinces. In the dry season of 2024, there is a possibility of local drought in the Central and South Central provinces and the Central Highlands region...

To proactively prevent natural disasters that tend to be increasingly unusual and extreme, forecasting and early warning of weather and climate information needs special attention, thereby helping leaders of the Party, State, agencies, organizations and social communities proactively direct and deploy preventive activities early and from a distance, ready to join hands to respond to and overcome natural disasters, bringing practical results, contributing to stabilizing people's lives and livelihoods and sustainable socio-economic development of the country.

In fact, forecasting and warning information in recent years has made significant progress, providing timely information with longer forecasting periods for disaster prevention agencies and the public. In particular, the work of forecasting storms and tropical depressions has become more reliable, gradually approaching the forecasting level of advanced countries in the region and the world, helping to minimize damage, with almost no deaths or missing people at sea during storms and tropical depressions.

Accurate forecasting of natural disasters, especially those at sea, has helped coordinate search and rescue activities at sea to be highly effective. This information is the input factor to calculate the drift of people and vehicles in distress; mobilization plans and rescue vehicles. The more accurate the calculation results, the higher the ability to rescue and support people and vehicles in distress, while saving on the budget for mobilizing vehicles.

A major issue that is also being raised to minimize human and property damage is the forecasting of flash floods and landslides. Discussing this issue, Chairman of the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Association, Professor, Dr. Tran Thuc, said that forecasting units have increased investment in science and technology for flash flood and landslide warning.

However, for this type of natural disaster, the world does not have much expectation about forecasting, the current forecasting status for this type of natural disaster is at a poor to low level and it is expected that by 2040, science can raise it to a poor to medium level. Therefore, according to Professor, Dr. Tran Thuc, along with strengthening monitoring and supervision, continuously monitoring information through online forecasting systems as well as coordination between local authorities, people and communities in reviewing the risks of flash floods and landslides in the locality is very important to be able to proactively prevent and respond before natural disasters occur.

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