Experts also have specific comments on the "health" of popular investment channels in 2024.
Gold is quite risky
The price of SJC gold bars started 2023 at VND66.6 - 67.6 million/tael (buy - sell) and ended the year at VND70 - 74 million/tael (buy - sell). Thus, after one year, the gold price continued to mark an upward cycle, bringing a profit of VND2.4 million/tael to investors, equivalent to a profit of about 3.55%.
However, this is only the profit calculated at the beginning and end of the year. In fact, the gold price has had periods of soaring, bringing "huge" profits to investors.
The "hottest" was in the last 2 weeks of 2023, the price of SJC gold bars continuously increased sharply, up to millions of VND/session. At its peak on December 26, 2023, the price of SJC gold was adjusted by businesses up to 10 times following the upward trend and peaked at 80.3 million VND/tael.
Compared to the beginning of the year, precious metals increased by nearly 13 million VND/tael, equivalent to an increase of 19%, a very good profit in the context of other investment channels facing difficulties.
Gold prices fluctuate strongly in 2023. (Illustration photo)
In 2024, many experts predict that gold prices may record new increases. Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh, Vice President of the Vietnam Gold Trading Association (VGTA), said that world gold prices may continue to increase to test high levels such as 2,100 USD or 2,150 USD/ounce. However, by the end of the first quarter of 2024, gold prices may record a sharp correction or earlier in February or March.
Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, an economic expert, also emphasized that although the main trend of gold prices is still increasing, the cash flow into gold will not be too large because gold fluctuates very erratically and has many potential risks.
According to Mr. Ngo Thanh Huan, CEO of FIDT Investment Consulting and Asset Management Joint Stock Company, gold is only a defensive investment channel. Gold prices will be supported when interest rates in the US decrease. Due to the impact of political factors, gold prices will stay at the high level as at the peak in 2023. However, gold prices are unlikely to increase by more than 20% in 2024, but will only increase to a maximum of VND85 million/tael.
If the economic picture in 2024 is stable, gold prices may remain flat or decrease. Compared to the growth performance of stocks, this is an unattractive increase, not even much expectation. In case Decree 24 is amended to control gold prices, domestic gold prices will be closer to world gold prices. Thus, the rate of increase of gold will not be sudden.
Mr. Huan recommends that this year, investors should buy gold at a sharp decline of 5-10%. If they do not choose to follow this formula, investors will easily fall into a "peak chasing" situation.
In the 2024 investment portfolio, gold should be kept at around 10%. Because looking back at the past 10-year cycle, from 2011-2019, the gold price still fluctuated at 40 million VND, unchanged. The appropriate time to sell gold is 2025.
Stocks have many challenges and opportunities
Mr. Truong Quang Binh, Deputy Director of Institutional Client Analysis, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, said that the economy in 2024 will still face many challenges, but this is also the year that opens up many opportunities for stock investors.
Stocks face many challenges but there are still opportunities for investors. (Illustration photo).
Therefore, the choice of which sector to allocate funds to will depend on each person's risk appetite: " No matter which investment channel is chosen, investors need to come up with effective solutions to protect assets as well as increase assets ," said Mr. Binh.
At the same time, this expert shared his perspective on the cheap valuation of the stock market: “ The market valuation in 2024 is quite cheap with the current stock market yield of about 10%. This is quite attractive compared to the current savings investment channel which is below 5% and may be lower .”
The outlook for the stock investment channel in 2024 is very bright, but Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, recommends that investors do not pursue speculation but consider this a long-term investment channel. Currently, more than 95% of stock investors in the market are speculating with the desire to get rich quickly, but this is difficult to happen in reality, sooner or later there will be risks.
Instead, investors should focus on value stocks and not expect too much high returns. At the same time, they must always pay attention to portfolio risk management and avoid investing based on rumors.
Save safely but not dramatically
Savings are still a safe investment channel. (Illustration photo).
Regarding the savings investment channel, according to experts, 2024 is considered to continue to be a safe place for investors to store money, but profit margins are unlikely to change dramatically.
Because savings interest rates are forecast to remain flat, continuing into 2023, a period of continuous "rock bottoming out".
According to the forecast of KB Securities Vietnam Joint Stock Company (KBSV), savings interest rates will hardly have room to decrease further and will continue to be maintained at the current level.
Because banks' deposit interest rates have returned to the bottom level before the COVID-19 pandemic, there is little room for further reduction. Not to mention, maintaining a low base interest rate creates the premise for lending interest rates to continue to decrease to support the economy.
Dr. Dinh The Hien, an economic expert, also said that people who deposit money in banks need to "get used to" low short-term interest rates. This is a reasonable adjustment that banks have made. However, despite the low interest rates, this is still a safe investment channel.
Real estate has a change
Real estate is expected to have a turning point. (Illustration photo)
As for the real estate investment channel, experts believe that 2024 will be the year for the market to make a turning point for a new development recovery cycle thanks to policies and solutions to remove difficulties, especially in terms of law and market promotion solutions that have had certain effectiveness. Many obstacles and difficulties have been gradually resolved, and the market situation has changed in a positive direction.
Arcadia Consulting Vietnam predicts that housing prices will increase again in mid-2024. At that time, the market will have overcome the difficult period and officially entered a new cycle. And this is just the beginning of positive prospects, which will be an opportunity for investors and a safe channel for capital retention, but there will not be a "galloping" phenomenon like in previous years...
Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, said that if investors have a high risk appetite, they can take advantage of "catching the bottom" of the real estate or stock market at this time, if they see a good investment opportunity.
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economic expert, expects that from mid-2024, this investment channel will begin to recover.
Dr. Dinh The Hien said that real estate prices are only going to a reasonable level, and the possibility of increasing again is very difficult. Therefore, investors also need to consider and choose to find real estate products with good liquidity in the context that this investment channel still faces many challenges.
Regarding which channel investors should choose to invest their money in, Mr. Huan said that if their risk appetite is low, saving money in the bank will still be the top priority. In addition, investors can also divide a small proportion of their money into other channels. However, the immutable principle is "not to put all your eggs in one basket" to diversify the risk.
Chau Anh
Source
Comment (0)