The optimistic plans for post-war Gaza that had just been put on the negotiating table by many parties were overshadowed when the situation in the Middle East became more tense than ever after two airstrikes occurred just hours apart, leading to the deaths of two senior officials of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip and the Hezbollah force in Lebanon.
Lack of factual basis
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, this is not the first time that high-ranking officials of countries and entities hostile to Israel have been killed in attacks. The deaths of two senior figures from Hezbollah and Hamas came shortly after the Houthi movement in Yemen attacked the city of Tel Aviv, coupled with Iran's announcement of retaliation. It can be said that Israel is "faced with enemies on all sides".
According to a statement issued on August 2 by Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin “ordered an adjustment to the US military posture to improve the ability to protect US forces, enhance support for Israel’s defense, and ensure the US is ready to respond to a variety of contingencies.”
However, analysts say there are signs that neither side wants to “trigger” a full-scale confrontation (as Israel risks getting bogged down in the Gaza Strip, and Iran and Hezbollah both have internal problems to deal with). However, optimistic plans for Gaza lack a realistic basis, as aid, security and reconstruction are more difficult than people think. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) currently control 26% of Gaza. No one else can control the remaining 74%. Without security, aid distribution cannot be effective, while Gazans cannot survive without aid.
Seeds of extremist forces
The Israeli military controls two corridors in Gaza, one in the center and one along the border with Egypt. The rest of the territory is largely ungoverned, with criminals stealing humanitarian aid, stealing cash from cash machines, and looting stores. Meanwhile, the police, who policed Gaza before the war, are now severely understaffed. According to Stratfor Worldview, the Israeli government is facing domestic and international pressure to come up with a plan to gradually end its military operations and return civilian and political duties to local authorities in Gaza.
To balance this pressure, Israel is likely to turn to Palestinian partners to create an Israeli-Palestinian government that would give Palestinians civil power and Israel security. The scenario experts have outlined is that Israel could first seek to create a new civil government run by Palestinian officials in Gaza or the West Bank who have no ties to Hamas or the Palestinian National Authority (PA), to restore basic services and reduce extremism in the Gaza Strip. Israel has struggled to find candidates with enough experience to run the country, so over time it could turn to Palestinians with ties to established groups.
The PA has also said it is ready to return to control the Gaza Strip, but only as part of a process leading to a Palestinian state. However, Israel’s international allies and many regional powers are pushing for other solutions. While Egypt has called for a complete IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has asked the United States to join a post-war peacekeeping force. At the same time, the Arab League has proposed deploying a UN peacekeeping force to Gaza to internationalize the management solution.
In the short term, Israel’s policy in Gaza resembles a militarized version of its occupation of the West Bank. Israel will likely continue its raids and withdrawals in Gaza for at least several months as it continues to pursue Hamas militants and leaders. However, this could create a weak and unpopular civilian government, leading to the return of militants to Gaza, challenging Israel’s ability to maintain a presence in the strip over the long term.
In the absence of coherent policies, weakened civil authority, and security gaps, new extremist factions could emerge, including those influenced by the Islamic State (IS), new Palestinian factions such as the Lions' Den militant group, or existing factions such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
Synthesized HAPPY CHI
Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/ke-hoach-quan-ly-nao-cho-gaza-post752594.html
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