Cooling down after Middle East ceasefire; domestic likely to turn up

Today's gasoline and oil prices, November 28, are almost flat due to concerns about reduced supply following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Domestically, this afternoon, it is forecasted to turn around and increase with an increase ranging from 300-550 VND/liter (kg).

Today, November 28, domestic gasoline prices are forecast to increase by around 300-550 VND/liter (kg) this afternoon. (Photo: Ngoc Ha)

At the end of the trading session on November 27, oil prices were almost flat, affected by the US petroleum inventory report, concerns about the progress of the US interest rate cut next year, and concerns about reduced supply after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.

Brent crude rose 2 cents to $72.83 a barrel. WTI crude fell 5 cents to $68.72 a barrel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said gasoline inventories rose 3.3 million barrels to 212.2 million barrels in the week ended November 22, compared with analysts' expectations for a 46,000-barrel decline. Crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations for a 605,000-barrel decline.

Earlier, information from the American Petroleum Institute said US oil inventories fell by 5.94 million barrels.

It's surprising to see gasoline inventories build so much when demand hasn't really changed week-to-week, despite the fact that travel demand is expected to hit record levels this Thanksgiving, said analyst Matt Smith at Kpler.

Oil prices were also weighed down by data showing progress in reducing inflation appears to have stalled in recent months, which could narrow the scope for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025.

Traders have bet that the U.S. central bank will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, they expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its January and March meetings. A slower-than-expected rate cut would push borrowing costs higher, which could slow economic activity and reduce demand for oil.

Both oil benchmarks fell in trading on November 26 after Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, effective from November 27, after both sides accepted the deal brokered by the US and France.

The question is how long will the ceasefire actually hold? said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

Crude oil will not be exempt from the 25% tariff that US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose on all products imported into the US from Mexico and Canada, Reuters reported.

Oil industry analysts and traders warn the move could raise oil prices for US refiners, squeezing profit margins and pushing up fuel prices.

Domestic retail prices of gasoline on November 28 are as follows:

E5 RON 92 gasoline is not more than 19,343 VND/liter.

RON 95-III gasoline is not more than 20,528 VND/liter.

Diesel oil not more than 18,509 VND/liter.

Kerosene not more than 18,921 VND/liter.

Fuel oil not exceeding 16,014 VND/kg.

The above domestic retail price of gasoline will be adjusted by the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade at the price management session this afternoon.

Due to the sharp increase in world oil prices last week, domestic oil prices are likely to increase by around VND300-550/liter (kg). If this is the case, domestic oil prices will not be able to record a hat-trick of decreases.

In the most recent price adjustment, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased by 109 VND/liter, RON 95-III gasoline decreased by 79 VND/liter, diesel decreased by 64 VND/liter, kerosene decreased by 67 VND/liter. Only fuel oil increased by 5 VND/kg.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gasoline-price-today-2811-giam-nhet-sau-lenh-ngung-ban-o-trung-dong-trong-nuoc-nhieu-kha-nang-se-quay-dau-tang-295395.html