Prolonged shortage of apartment supply and high apartment prices make it difficult for the majority of people to buy a house – Photo: NAM TRAN
Long-term shortage, lack of affordable housing
According to Tuoi Tre Online , in the second quarter of this year in Hanoi, only a few commercial housing projects were launched, such as Lumi Hanoi, The Sola Park, QMS Top Tower To Huu, The Canopy Residences, Capital Elite, Masteri West Heights... The selling price of apartments in these projects are all at the level of 50-80 million VND/ m2 .
Data from the Ministry of Construction also shows that in the first quarter of 2024, only 10 commercial housing projects were completed nationwide, with a construction scale of about 4,700 apartments. The number of completed commercial housing projects was only about 34.5% of the fourth quarter of 2023 and 71.4% of the same period last year.
In addition, the number of newly licensed projects nationwide is 19 (down 3 projects), the number of projects eligible to sell future housing is 38 (down 9 projects compared to the same period in 2023). The selling price of apartment projects in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in the first quarter of this year fluctuates between 50 - 70 million VND/ m2 .
According to the Ministry of Construction, the supply of social housing in the first quarter was also very low, with only 5 completed projects, with a scale of about 2,000 apartments, mostly concentrated in the provinces of Bac Giang, Thai Binh, Khanh Hoa... In large markets like Hanoi, there were no projects, and Ho Chi Minh City had 1 rental housing project, with a scale of only 242 apartments.
Notably, the number of commercial apartment projects being implemented in the first quarter of 2024 reached 984 projects (an increase of 130 projects) compared to the same period last year. This number includes hundreds of projects that have been "shelved" for many years and are waiting for solutions.
Many experts expect that from August 1, when the Land, Housing, and Real Estate Business laws come into effect and legal guidance documents are issued, many projects will be unstuck, opening up the housing supply for the market.
Apartment prices increased sharply in a short time
Regarding real estate prices, Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan - sales director of Batdongsan.com.vn - said there has been a remarkable increase in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in the first 6 months of this year.
Compared to the first quarter of 2023, the selling prices of all types of real estate in Hanoi at the end of the second quarter of 2024 increased sharply, of which apartments increased by 31%, brothels increased by 10%, villas increased by 18%, private houses increased by 32%, land increased by 19%, townhouses increased by 10%. Meanwhile, in Ho Chi Minh City, only the selling prices of apartments increased by 6%, other types remained the same.
The apartment segment is considered the driving force for the recovery of the Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City markets in the first months of the year. The main reason for the increase in apartment prices in Hanoi is due to limited supply in the center and high opening prices.
A survey by Batdongsan.com.vn with 537 sales brokers showed that the cause of the "fever" of apartments in the first months of 2024 gave the following results: 32% of opinions said that the price increase was due to a shortage of supply and few choices; 23% of opinions said that the demand for buying houses increased strongly again; 15% said that the new supply was too expensive; 15% said that the demand for investment and speculation pushed up prices; and 11% said that real estate brokers pushed up prices and had an impact.
In addition, the level of interest in apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City also increased sharply. Compared to October 2023, the level of interest in apartments in May 2024 in Hanoi increased by 29%, in Ho Chi Minh City increased by 32%.
Batdongsan.com.vn's report also shows that compared to the period 2013 - 2016, the selling price of apartments in the period 2023 - 2026 has doubled. Specifically, the average price in 2013 was about 23 million VND/ m2 , and the average price in the first 6 months of 2024 was about 45 million VND/ m2 .
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn - commented that the real estate market in the first 6 months of this year is at a turning point, in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2024, the market will enter a period of exploration and small-scale liquidity.
By the first quarter of 2025, the market will enter a period of consolidating financial resources and completing legal procedures. From the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, the real estate market will flourish and enter a stable development trajectory in 2026.
With this trend, some experts say apartment prices may continue to increase in the next period.
The problem with current apartment buildings lies in the input land cost which is expected to increase when the new land price determination regulation is applied from August 1. In addition, construction costs also tend to increase, the real demand for housing is very large, while the market supply is not easy to increase again in a short time.
On the other hand, when project input costs increase, real estate investment businesses tend to invest only in the high-end apartment segment to maximize profits, while the supply of social housing cannot increase rapidly if the policy is not really attractive to private investors.
Apartment supply in Hanoi is concentrated in two urban areas.
Data from the OneHousing Center for Market Research and Customer Insights also shows that in the first quarter of 2024, up to 80% of home sales in Hanoi will be concentrated in the two urban areas of Vinhomes Ocean Park and Vinhomes Smart City.
In the first 5 months of 2024, the number of apartments sold at Vinhomes Ocean Park reached about 2,500 units, at Vinhomes Smart City about 5,600 units.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/gia-can-ho-chung-cu-tang-manh-trong-thoi-gian-ngan-20240628094201846.htm
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