Vietnam’s coffee output in the current crop year is expected to be lower than last year due to adverse weather, exacerbating a supply shortage and sending global coffee prices soaring, according to Bloomberg.
Coffee price today 3/17/2025
World coffee prices fell sharply at the end of last week, but at the end of last week, the price of robusta coffee futures for delivery in May 2025 increased by 44 USD/ton; arabica decreased by 7.2 cents/lb.
Domestic coffee prices fell sharply at the end of last week, but increased by an average of VND1,000 - 2,000/kg for the whole week. It is very difficult to buy coffee in Vietnam at the moment because farmers are not selling. Meanwhile, alternative supplies from Brazil are very limited.
Global coffee prices are expected to decline on favorable weather ahead of Brazil’s upcoming robusta harvest. Rain forecasts for Brazil next week have pushed arabica prices to a two-week low. Forecasts from Somar Meteorologia forecast widespread showers next week in Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, easing concerns about drought.
The upcoming crop in top producer Brazil remains in focus, with the country’s stockpiles at record lows after a drought last year. Certified arabica stocks held on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 8,652 bags last week to 802,277.
Technically, according to analysts, Robusta coffee prices are also currently in a downward cycle, but chart analysis shows that it is difficult for this market to fall below the level of 5,280 USD/ton based on the May delivery price, although this level is only about 100 USD away from the current price. Many fluctuations are expected to occur in the current price range next week.
Key factors currently impacting the coffee market include drought in Vietnam (down 20%), excessive rain in Indonesia (down 16.5%) and adverse weather in Brazil, the largest supplier of Arabica, which has led to a downward revision of crop forecasts. Higher transportation costs have also contributed to the price spike.
Not only in Vietnam, global coffee supplies are also being squeezed by harvest problems. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned of further price increases this year if supply problems persist and stressed the need to invest in climate-smart farming, with the majority of smallholder farmers who produce 80% of the world’s coffee being hit hard. Brazil and Vietnam account for nearly 50% of the world’s coffee production.
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| Domestic coffee prices at the end of last week (March 15) decreased by VND1,500/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: doanhnhan.biz) |
According to the World & Vietnam , at the end of last week's trading session (March 14), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 fell sharply by 131 USD, trading at 5,397 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 fell by 129 USD, trading at 5,377 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell sharply, with the May 2025 delivery term down 8.5 cents, trading at 377.20 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery term down 7.8 cents, trading at 370.85 cents/lb. Average trading volume.
Domestic coffee prices at the end of last week (March 15) decreased by VND1,500/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
World coffee prices as well as domestic coffee prices in Vietnam have continuously increased since the beginning of the year and set new records due to concerns about tightening global supplies.
Accordingly, as of March 12, coffee prices in the Central Highlands region fluctuated at 132,500 - 133,500 VND/kg, an increase of 11% (12,280 - 13,200 VND/kg) compared to the end of last year. Previously, the transaction price reached a historical high of 135,000 VND/kg on March 5, surpassing the peak of 134,200 VND/kg reached in April last year.
Vietnam’s coffee output in the current crop year is expected to be lower than last year due to adverse weather, exacerbating a supply shortage and sending global coffee prices soaring, according to Bloomberg .
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the output of the world's largest robusta coffee producer is forecast to reach only 26.5 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop year. This figure is lower than Vicofa's previous estimate and compared to 27 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year. It is only in the 2025-2026 crop year that it is expected to improve, due to initial positive weather signals. Currently, many growing areas are in the flowering stage and the weather is favorable.
Drought has affected crops, while robusta supplies are also falling after some farmers switched to other crops with higher economic value.
Attending the 9th Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Festival in 2025 (March 9-13) with the theme “Buon Ma Thuot – Destination of the world’s coffee”, Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) Vanúsia Nogueira said that the market is facing a coffee shortage this year due to unfavorable weather in the world’s main coffee growing regions. “We are very short of reserves,” said Vanúsia Nogueira.
According to Vietnam Customs data, in the first 5 months of the 2024-2025 crop year (October 2024 to February 2025), Vietnam's coffee exports to the world market reached only 539,923 tons, down 21.5% (147,510 tons) compared to the same period last crop year.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1732924-gia-ca-phe-robusta-vao-chu-ky-sut-giam-van-nong-tinh-trang-nguon-cung-du-bao-tuan-nay-the-nao-307823.html
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