(Dan Tri) - Polls show a close race in the final days of the race to the White House between US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump.
US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump (Photo: Getty).
On November 5 (US time), millions of American voters will go to the polls to choose the next president between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. Polls a few days before the election show different predictions about which candidate will win, but these polls all reflect a very close race for the White House this year. According to surveys by the Guardian and the Economist , Ms. Harris has a higher chance of winning than Mr. Trump. Specifically, according to the Guardian, Ms. Harris's approval rating is 48%, 1 point higher than Mr. Trump's. Meanwhile, according to a survey by the Economist magazine, Ms. Harris's chance of winning is 52%, while Mr. Trump's is 48%. The Economist 's model predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win 270 electoral votes, the minimum number to win the presidency, while Mr. Trump only has 268 votes. On the contrary, some survey units believe that Mr. Trump will be re-elected. According to the prediction model of 538, an American website focusing on polling, politics, and economics, Mr. Trump's chance of winning is 50%, while Ms. Harris's is 49%. The gap between the two candidates has narrowed significantly because just last week, this model showed Mr. Trump's chance was up to 55%, while Ms. Harris's was only 45%. In terms of electoral votes, the current model predicts Mr. Trump will win 270 votes and Ms. Harris 268 votes. The model shows that North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona lean Republican, while Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada are still wavering. The election model of famous pollster Nate Silver predicts Mr. Trump's chance of winning is 51.1%, while Ms. Harris's is at 48.5%. According to a survey by RealClearPolling, Mr. Trump is likely to return to the White House. As of November 2, the model predicts Trump will win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, while Harris will win Michigan and Wisconsin. According to the model, Trump will have 287 electoral votes, while Harris will have 251. National aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, but individual states and their Electoral College votes ultimately determine the outcome of elections, which do not always match the popular vote. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but Trump ultimately won the election because he had more electoral votes. With a close election like 2024, polling becomes even more difficult. "The truth is that polling and the models that rely heavily on polling to predict the outcome cannot confidently predict what will happen on November 5," Brian Klaas, associate professor of global politics at University College London (UCL), wrote on the Atlantic news site. According to Newsweek/Dantri.com.vn
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