According to experts, in 2025, the steel industry will face a series of difficulties and potential risks. Accordingly, ensuring and expanding the market is increasingly urgent.
Finished steel exports in 2024 will reach 8.042 million tons
Giving an overview of the steel industry's production and business situation in 2024 at the recent Trade Promotion Conference with the Vietnam Trade Office System, Mr. Dinh Quoc Thai - General Secretary and Vice President of the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) said that the world steel market continues to face many difficulties due to geopolitical conflicts, strategic competition in the world and trade tensions, disruptions in the global market supply chain and many other reasons. In 2024, negative growth will continue to reach only 1.839 billion tons of crude steel (down 0.9% compared to 2023 and 2023 down 0.8% compared to 2022).
"Although directly affected by the global steel market, thanks to the drastic and effective direction of the Government and ministries in removing difficulties for the real estate and construction markets, promoting public investment projects, policies to support reconstruction and recovery after natural disasters, especially typhoon Yagi... in 2024, the Vietnamese steel market has gradually recovered and grown, and achieved positive results" - Mr. Thai said.
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| In 2024, the Vietnamese steel market gradually recovered and achieved positive results. Photo: TN |
Crude steel production reached more than 21.98 million tons, up 14% over the same period in 2023; Domestic crude steel consumption and sales reached 21.41 million tons, up 14% over the same period in 2023. Of which, mainly flat billet (slab) exports reached 2.783 million tons, up 55% over the same period in 2023.
Production of finished steel products of all kinds reached 29.443 million tons, up 6.1%. Of which, production of metal-coated and color-coated steel reached the highest growth rate of 23.1%, construction steel increased by 10.1%, steel pipes increased by 3.5% and HRC was 1.5%; Only cold-rolled steel coil production recorded a negative growth rate of 19.4%.
Finished steel sales reached 29.09 million tons, up 10.4% year-on-year. Of which, finished steel exports in 2024 reached 8.042 million tons, down slightly by 0.6% year-on-year; All items recorded growth except hot-rolled coil, down 33.8%.
The General Secretary and Vice President of the Vietnam Steel Association emphasized: "Achieving the above results, in addition to the efforts of enterprises and workers in the Vietnamese steel industry, is thanks to the drastic participation of the Government and state management agencies in removing difficulties and promoting production and business. In addition, it is necessary to acknowledge the efforts, especially of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in promoting trade, improving the effectiveness of market management, supporting enterprises with advanced technical solutions, improving productivity, using energy efficiently and flexibly, and effectively using trade defense tools".
Specifically, there are decisions to initiate anti-dumping investigations on galvanized and color-coated steel, hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel sheets, and there is currently a decision to impose temporary taxes on some hot-rolled steel products originating from India and China (460/QD-BCT dated February 21, 2025), review anti-dumping on profile steel imported into Vietnam..., and effectively respond to many trade defense lawsuits in export markets.
Potential risks for steel producers
Despite the positive results, however, according to experts, the recovery of the steel industry is still quite slow and has not achieved the results of 2021. Specifically, crude steel production is 95% (23 million tons), finished steel production is 89% (33 million tons), sales including exports of finished steel are equivalent (29 million tons). In addition, the recovery of the industry is still uncertain.
According to industry experts, in addition to inheriting the recovery of 2024, in 2025 the steel industry will continue to face difficulties and challenges such as: China continues to increase exports, when the domestic market is weak. Vietnamese steel manufacturers are facing the risk of losing the domestic market, greatly affecting the efficiency and jobs of workers.
The oversupply of many domestically produced steel products, along with the strong increase in imported steel, will cause competitive pressure on finished steel prices and competition in the domestic market will become more fierce.
In particular, the increasing instability of the world market, supply chain disruptions, international freight rates, etc. pose many risks to steel manufacturers. In addition, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc. will certainly increase the cost of steel production significantly.
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| Increasing instability in the world market, supply chain disruptions, international freight rates, etc. pose many risks to steel manufacturers. Photo: Moit |
"Changes in trade policies of major countries, especially countries that have increased technical barriers, strengthened trade defense measures, abused policies related to climate change and green growth... as tools and barriers to prevent imported steel to protect steel production in the country and territory. This will be a significant obstacle to Vietnam's steel exports in the coming time," said Mr. Thai.
Trade promotion boosts steel exports to new markets
Accordingly, to effectively respond to changes in trade policies of major countries in the current international context, in addition to diplomatic policies, VSA proposes the following recommendations:
Firstly, state management agencies, especially the Vietnam Trade Office abroad, continue to grasp, update information, and provide early warnings to businesses and associations, helping Vietnamese steel manufacturing enterprises proactively have a remote and early response plan to find opportunities and limit risks to changes in trade policies of major countries. Specifically:
The next decisions of the US Government are related to the subjects and duration of tax imposition, and the period of tax deferral for each subject according to Article 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
Negotiate and update the content of the EU imposing carbon tax on each steel product under the CBAM mechanism and monitor the EC procedure to put Vietnam on the list of countries allowed to import scrap from the EU, giving early warning to the parties to supplement the procedure (if necessary).
Second, promote and improve the capacity to protect domestic production, in the direction of tightening input and opening up output for domestically produced products.
In particular, closely study the input, including: improving the capacity to build and apply technical barriers, import procedures to ensure the requirements of technical barriers according to the provisions of law and international practices; Improving the capacity of trade defense for enterprises, in the short term to resolve the current situation of Chinese steel competing unfairly in the Vietnamese market, in the medium and long term to prevent steel from major economies from competing unfairly in the Vietnamese market.
In particular, according to VSA, it is necessary to ensure clear output from the stage of market research, introducing steel products manufactured in Vietnam; Promoting trade to boost steel exports to new markets; Continuing to simplify export procedures; Providing early warning and improving the capacity to respond to trade defense cases initiated by foreign investigations (negotiating, exchanging, presenting arguments and viewpoints of Vietnam on the conclusions of the investigation agency, supporting consultations in public consultation sessions in the country of the lawsuit...) to create competitive advantages for Vietnamese steel in traditional markets, opening up the flow of Vietnamese steel to the global market. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/doanh-nghiep-thep-voi-loat-kho-khan-tu-thi-truong-xuat-khau-378481.html
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