In a recent analysis in Foreign Affairs, Mr. Celeste Wallander, a former senior official of the Pentagon (USA), assessed Ukraine's defense capabilities with or without support from the US. TG&VN translated the analysis.
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| Members of the Ukrainian armed forces in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 2025. (Source: Reuters) |
No need to be agitated
The US's sudden, albeit temporary, suspension of all security aid to Ukraine in early March raised concerns about the country's ability to defend itself.
Suppose aid were to be stopped permanently, the conflict situation would certainly change.
But even if the US were to cut off support entirely, it would not reverse the progress Ukraine has made over the past three years. With its existing stockpiles and domestic weapons production capacity, Ukraine could still maintain its defenses for months.
Although US aid has resumed for now, Ukraine need not be swayed if Washington continues to delay or suspend assistance.
The takeaway here is that the suspension of US aid is an important wake-up call: How effectively and sustainably Ukraine can defend itself in the coming months will depend on how willing European powers are to take the place of the US.
No European country can replace the United States financially and in terms of defense industry alone, but together they can provide significant support to Ukraine.
With or without Washington, European nations need to step up their most urgently needed military funding for Ukraine, including ammunition and air defense interceptors. Denmark, Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and many others have already begun doing so.
Over the past three years, Europe has provided Ukraine with a variety of weapons that the United States has not supported, such as anti-ship weapons, modern battle tanks, short- and medium-range air defense systems, cybersecurity systems, and industrial components.
At the same time, Ukraine has expanded domestic production of UAVs and ammunition, now meeting at least 40% of daily needs.
Recently, Ukraine has also demonstrated its ability to conduct asymmetric warfare, exploiting Russia's weaknesses, and using UAVs to search for and destroy Russian military equipment.
As Russia's tactics changed, Ukraine quickly adapted by building more lethal UAVs within weeks or even days, rendering Russian countermeasures obsolete.
Even with limited US aid, Ukraine could still make significant gains with European support, helping Kiev strengthen its position and undermining the Kremlin’s plan to prolong the conflict and force Ukraine to accept President Putin’s terms.
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| With its current stockpile, Ukraine can maintain its defenses until mid-2025. (Source: Reuters) |
Enough defense until mid-2025
The US security assistance to Ukraine over the past three years has not only met its weekly on-the-ground needs but also helped Kiev strengthen its military over the long term. The aid has been distributed through three different programs, all approved and funded by the US Congress.
The most important program is Presidential Withdrawal Authority (PDA), which allows the US Department of Defense to withdraw weapons systems from military stockpiles and quickly transfer them to partners within weeks or months. Ukraine is the largest recipient of PDA aid, with a total of $33.3 billion from 2022 to 2024.
Thanks to this program, Ukraine received a wide range of weapons such as Javelin and Stinger missiles, armored vehicles, radars, UAVs, artillery, air defense systems and ammunition.
These aid, along with contributions from Europe, not only help Ukraine defend itself but also help it build a modern army according to NATO standards.
In addition, the US Congress also established the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) with a budget of 33.3 billion USD from 2022 to 2024 to deal with long-term threats from Russia.
Unlike the PDA, USAI does not draw from the US military stockpile but funds the purchase of military equipment that the US does not have available for large-scale aid.
The program has helped Ukraine acquire hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition, air defense systems, UAVs, and key industrial components.
Europe is also involved in these efforts, supporting Ukraine through individual defense procurement contracts and through the European Union.
Finally, the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program to enhance Ukraine's medium- and long-term security was approved by the US Congress from 2022 with $6.7 billion.
The money was used to sign contracts with US defense companies to purchase air defense systems, armored vehicles, anti-tank systems and radars.
These programs have helped Ukraine strengthen its defenses to the point that even if US aid were temporarily interrupted, the Ukrainian military could still fight.
US officials estimate that with existing stockpiles, aid packages through 2024, European contributions and especially domestic production, Ukraine could sustain its defenses until mid-2025.
Kiev is not alone
US aid remains crucial to Ukraine's overall capabilities, but Kiev and its European partners should not underestimate their ability to defend themselves.
Europe has the determination to meet Ukraine's defense needs and is fully capable of taking on this task.
It is expected that by 2025, Ukraine will need billions of euros to maintain its defense, a figure within Europe's capabilities.
The European Union has announced plans for new defense funding mechanisms, with a potential budget of up to $840 billion. Several countries, including Norway and the UK, have pledged new aid packages, and others are preparing to announce more support.
Ukraine and the US will have a more favorable negotiating position as Washington remains committed to diplomatic and financial support for Kiev.
But whatever happens, Ukraine is not out of the woods.
Having spent the past three years building a modern military and maintaining its defenses, Ukraine is unlikely to give up easily. And with growing support from Europe, Kiev is not alone.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/old-man-of-the-year-old-officer-goc-phan-tich-chi-tiet-phao-sinh-ton-cua-ukraine-307959.html
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