What are the chances for Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump in the 7 battleground states?

(Dan Tri) - Analysts comment on the scenarios of Ms. Kamala Harris and her opponent Donald Trump if they want to win the presidential election on November 5.

Former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (Photo: ABC).

Harris's Strategy In the 2020 US presidential election , seven states recorded election results that were less than 3 percentage points apart: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina . These are called "battleground states" because they do not lean strongly towards the Democratic or Republican parties. President Joe Biden won the first six states and thereby won the election. However, polls from earlier this year showed that Biden was behind Trump in all seven of the above battleground states, according to the Silver Bulletin average. When Biden had not yet withdrawn from the race, analysts assessed that Biden had very little chance of winning in North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and even Nevada. Therefore, Biden's best strategy at that time seemed to be to hold on to the "Rust Belt" states (ie the region that has experienced industrial decline, including the steel industry since the 1980s) - Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These three battleground states — along with traditionally Democratic states and Nebraska’s one electoral vote — could help Biden secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win, Vox analyzed. However, Ms. Harris’s strategy will be different. From one perspective, many experts say Ms. Harris may be less appealing to working -class white voters in “Rust Belt” states. That would make her more challenging in states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. On the positive side, Ms. Harris is expected to gain more votes from voters of color, thereby challenging Mr. Trump in southern states like Georgia and North Carolina (where there are many people of color) or Arizona and Nevada (where there are many Latinos). In 2020, Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by 4.5 percentage points when considering the total number of votes cast by American voters. However, the race for a majority of electoral votes is much closer. Biden won 19 "safe" Democratic states, Washington DC and one vote in Nebraska (which does not have a "winner-take-all" system like most other states). However, in all six "battlefield" states he won, the difference between him and former President Donald Trump was relatively small. In particular, there were three states where the difference was less than 1%: Wisconsin (0.6%), Arizona (0.3%) and Georgia (0.2%). Now, Ms. Harris seems to have more paths to victory than Mr. Biden. "Kamala Harris is performing significantly better than Joe Biden among black and Latino voters," CNN analyst Harry Enten wrote on social network X. "If Mr. Biden has only one path to victory, Harris has many. Specifically, she can win in the 'Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada)." According to a CNN/SSRS poll, Harris leads Trump among black, Latino, and young voters. Biden has been trailing among Latinos and young voters. The clearest evidence is in Georgia, where 33% of voters are black. Polls show Harris closing in on Trump by 1-2 percentage points, instead of trailing Biden by 4 points. North Carolina is a safer state for Trump (the former president won here twice in a row). However, the gap between the two candidates in 2020 is not too high, giving Harris a chance to turn the tables. In Nevada and Arizona, Latinos — who make up more than 20% of the population in each state — will have a big impact. Democrats have won Nevada in the last four presidential elections, even though the state is trending more to the right. Meanwhile, Arizona is traditionally a Republican stronghold but has seen a surprising Democratic surge in recent years. What does Trump need?

Former President Donald Trump (Photo: Reuters).

Meanwhile, for Mr. Trump, if he wins the three Eastern states - Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia - he will return to the White House. This is considered the most feasible option for Mr. Trump in this election. Mr. Trump's television ads clearly show a trend aimed at the three states mentioned above. Pennsylvania is where the Republicans "pump" the most money. Georgia is in second place, while they have just pumped an additional $ 17 million into North Carolina - a place that has not been invested much. "With the large reserves pouring into North Carolina, I would be surprised if there is not another large amount of money coming from one of Mr. Trump's political action committees," said Mr. Kurt Pickhardt, a Republican media consultant. "He is trying to prevent Ms. Harris from winning thanks to the southern states." Of the three states, Pennsylvania is the most important. This state has up to 19 electoral votes - enough to turn the situation for the next candidate. In 2020, Mr. Biden also won by about 80,000 votes. That doesn't mean the four remaining battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — aren't important. If Ms. Harris loses Pennsylvania, she'll need to carry one of the two western states (Nevada and Arizona) — provided she wins Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia. "Of the seven battleground states, you need to win four to win," Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, told Politico . "Once you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, it's a lot easier."

According to Vox, Politico/ Dantri.com.vn

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/co-hoi-nao-cho-ba-harris-ong-trump-tai-7-bang-chien-truong-20240922192928396.htm