Chinese Foreign Minister's 'paving the way' visit to the US

Visiting the US, Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to pave the way for a summit between the two countries' leaders, helping to thaw bilateral relations.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Washington from October 26 to 28, becoming the highest-ranking Chinese official to visit the US capital in nearly five years. It is also a long-awaited return visit after several top US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, visited Beijing over the summer.

Observers believe that Foreign Minister Wang's trip will pave the way for a possible meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping in November, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco, USA.

This is a highly anticipated meeting, as it could contribute to promoting US-China political trust at the highest level, in the context of tense bilateral relations due to strategic competition between the two superpowers, as well as a series of regional and global issues.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a press conference in Beijing in September. Photo: Reuters

Relations between the world's two largest economies have only recently begun to show signs of improvement, with the establishment of the US-China Economic Working Group in September to promote communication on economic and financial issues, following talks between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Beijing in July.

The working group held its first online meeting on October 24, ahead of Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to the US. The discussion was described by China's Ministry of Finance as "in-depth, candid and constructive".

Analysts say the increased exchanges and meetings between the two powers could be a sign that they are preparing for a summit between the US President and the Chinese President.

Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said recent communications suggested Mr. Xi was likely to travel to San Francisco for the APEC meeting.

According to Wu, Foreign Minister Wang's visit to Washington and media reports that Vice Premier He Lifeng might also visit the US are evidence that the Chinese side "is trying to discuss with their US counterparts about a potential meeting" between the two leaders.

He predicted the topic would be at the top of the Chinese foreign minister's agenda when he meets his US counterpart and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

Chong Ja Ian, associate professor at the National University of Singapore, said tensions between the US and China have eased somewhat but "it is unclear whether bilateral relations have truly thawed."

Earlier this month, Xi met in Beijing with a US delegation led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the first group of US lawmakers to visit China in four years.

President Xi's last visit to the US was in April 2017, when he visited President Donald Trump in Florida. Mr Biden has not been to China since taking office.

Since the Trump era, China and the US have clashed over a range of issues, from trade and technology to security and human rights disputes. Tensions appeared to ease when Mr Xi and Mr Biden met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, last November, but relations deteriorated again when the US shot down a Chinese blimp in its airspace in February.

The US has invited the Chinese leader to attend APEC, but there are no firm plans for a summit between Xi and Biden, according to several people familiar with the matter. But that could happen if Wang and Biden reach an agreement at their meeting this week.

Beijing has yet to confirm whether Mr Xi will attend the APEC summit in San Francisco, saying only that it will release information “at the appropriate time”.

This “nothing is certain” strategy gives Beijing more flexibility in case it needs to retreat, analysts say.

"If Beijing wanted to send a stronger message, they could have publicly said that the summit between the two leaders would not take place because of some actions from the other side that made them uncomfortable," commented expert Chong from the National University of Singapore.

According to a Chinese expert on US-China relations, Beijing's approach is aimed at lowering public expectations and managing risks in relations with Washington.

Experts say that if the Biden-Xi summit takes place after Mr. Wang’s inaugural visit, it will help stabilize the relationship between the two powers. However, they do not expect the meeting to bring about a breakthrough due to the current geopolitical context.

“As the US enters the presidential campaign, Biden will want to be seen as a leader who can negotiate with external stakeholders and maintain open lines of communication,” Wu said. “But at the same time, he cannot be seen as weak when it comes to relations with China.”

If he is seen as “giving in” to China, Mr. Biden will likely face a wave of attacks from his Republican opponents. The Republican Party has recently expressed an increasingly hardline stance toward Beijing, especially Mr. Trump, the party’s leading candidate.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) meets with US President Joe Biden in Bali, Indonesia, November 2022. Photo: Reuters

An unnamed Chinese scholar said there had been signs of easing tensions in recent exchanges between the two sides and that Mr. Wang's visit to the US would be a "warm-up" step to create the right atmosphere for the summit between the two leaders.

The US also wants China to use its influence with Iran and other countries in the Middle East to help prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from spreading. Foreign Minister Wang’s upcoming visit to Washington is an opportunity for US officials to persuade China to do so.

Although China has expressed concerns about the US approach to the conflict, both sides share an interest in preventing the war from escalating out of control, analysts say.

Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, assessed that China, as a major oil consumer, certainly has an interest in preventing conflict from spreading in the Middle East, because it would cause oil prices to rise.

Still, China doesn’t have much practical leverage on the Israel-Hamas issue, given its limited diplomatic and security resources in the Middle East. “I think they want to have a role in resolving the issue but don’t feel the need to get involved or have the ability to accelerate the resolution,” he said.

But the exchanges between Mr. Wang Yi and senior US officials during his visit this week still play a very important role in bilateral relations, because it will open a long-term, stable channel of interaction for the two countries.

“High-level contacts between China and the US have resumed at a faster pace since May, which has clearly helped stabilize relations,” said Diao Daming, an expert at Renmin University of China in Beijing. “That has prevented China-US relations from deteriorating.”

Vu Hoang (According to SCMP, Reuters, AFP, Global Times )

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