Stocks are waiting for a boost again

At the end of the trading session on September 11, VN-Index closed down to around 1,250 points, down slightly from the previous session and the third consecutive session of decline. Liquidity remained low as the transaction value on the HoSE floor was less than VND13,000 billion. Many investors were discouraged and did not want to look at the board because of the sluggish and quiet trading.

"Lifeless" market

Before the September 2 holiday, the market had nearly 2 weeks of explosive trading, after the VN-Index fell below 1,200 points and rebounded strongly to over 1,280 points. Many investors and analysts had high expectations that the market could create surprises after the holiday, because there was a lot of positive information about the domestic and foreign economies.

Contrary to expectations, the VN-Index continued to fluctuate and then fell sharply after the holiday. In the session on September 11, the index dropped sharply to 1,244 points before narrowing the decline to 1.96 points and closing at 1,253 points. Notably, transactions on the HoSE, HNX, and UpCoM exchanges only reached over VND13,900 billion, of which the HoSE alone accounted for VND12,843 billion, a very low level in the past month.

Even positive information related to the cooling of the USD/VND exchange rate or the US Federal Reserve (FED) about to lower interest rates, removing difficulties for foreign investors to be able to buy securities without pre-funding... could not help the market to be excited.

What makes the stock market still disappointing? Mr. Truong Hien Phuong, Senior Director, KIS Vietnam Securities Company, commented that it may be because the market does not have enough positive information to break out.

"In addition to the factor of foreign investors continuously selling net; the market fluctuates in the accumulation zone, making it impossible for investors to surf, and there is also a lack of large cash flows entering the market. On the contrary, many investment teams and groups are shouting negative information related to the business activities of some large corporations and enterprises, which has a significant impact on investor sentiment," Mr. Phuong analyzed.

According to the reporter of Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper, in the past few days, many securities associations, groups, and investors have rarely exchanged, asked for information, or commented on the increase or decrease of stocks as before. The price of many stocks has decreased by 8%-10% in the past 2 weeks, but many investors are almost unwilling to buy.

The stock market is continuously in red, disappointing investors. Photo: HOANG TRIEU

What factors make the big push?

In its September strategy report, SSI Securities Corporation (SSI Research) said that the notable point in the coming time is the circular related to foreign institutional investors being able to buy securities without having enough money immediately will be issued. SSI Research expects this circular to be issued in September and implemented in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This is the basis for FTSE Russell to positively assess the Vietnamese stock market in this September's rating period and decide to upgrade Vietnam in the September 2025 review period. This solution can help foreign investment funds consider disbursing back to the Vietnamese market, in addition to shifting investment cash flow to emerging markets in the context of the cooling USD.

"According to historical data, September could be a good buying opportunity with expectations of market growth in the last quarter of the year. Factors that are favorable to the market are gradually becoming more evident than in the previous period, including economic recovery momentum, the Government continuing to maintain supportive monetary and fiscal policies, and better growth in listed companies' profits in the second half of the year, along with expectations of a gradual return of foreign capital flows," added Ms. Hoang Viet Phuong, Director of SSI Research.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Truong Hien Phuong also said that more stimulus is needed such as a more positive Q3/2024 business results report of listed companies, the Vietnamese stock market confirming that it will be upgraded, the FED officially reducing interest rates... to be able to create attraction for investors' cash flow.

Ms. Tran Khanh Hien, Director of Analysis - MB Securities Company (MBS), commented that the impact from the world stock market adjusting at the peak on the domestic market will subside when there is more supportive information this September. Some markets in the Southeast Asian region have gone against the world stock market trend when the USD has decreased to the level at the beginning of this year.

The recently released August 2024 macroeconomic data series will provide investors with more clues to assess the economic outlook and the picture of business results of enterprises in the third quarter of 2024. "Bright spots from the series of macroeconomic data such as inflation, manufacturing sector index, positive foreign investment disbursement, and continued strong export growth thanks to the recovery of consumer demand in the world, especially when approaching the year-end holiday season. The USD/VND exchange rate has cooled down, which will be factors that help monetary policy have room to support the economy in the coming time. The VN-Index still has a positive outlook in September" - Ms. Hien emphasized.

Interest rates, bonds compete with stocks?

Some comments say that the cash flow into stocks is being competed by other investment channels such as deposit interest rates, bonds, real estate, etc. KIS Vietnam experts say this comment is not necessarily true. Because recent figures show that the issuance of bonds by many enterprises has not really recovered. Many investors are still like "birds afraid of curved branches" with the bond investment channel.

"Deposit interest rates have increased, but the highest is around 6.5%-7%, which is not an attractive interest rate compared to stock investment. Even the time when deposit interest rates were 8%-9% in late 2022 and early 2023 was not attractive for investors to switch to this channel.

While real estate is only active in the apartment segment, other segments are still mainly watching and waiting. In fact, investors' money is still in the stock market, it's just that there is a lack of confidence that the VN-Index will break out, so they are not interested in disbursing" - Mr. Truong Hien Phuong said.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/chung-khoan-lai-cho-cu-hich-196240911205205568.htm