France's shift in geopolitical approach to NATO and EU enlargement could reshape the future of Europe.
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| French President Emmanuel Macron speaks at the GlobSec Forum in Bratislava, Slovakia on May 31. (Source: AFP/Getty Images) |
In February 2022, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a “Zeitenwende,” or “historic turning point,” which established a 100 billion euro fund to strengthen defense capabilities. Compared to Berlin’s previous caution, the 180-degree change in its defense stance has shocked Europe.
At the same time, another “historic turning point” occurred in Paris that received less attention. But its impact was no less important. So what was it?
Two big adjustments
That change lies in two fundamental areas now with the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). First, it concerns Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Second, it concerns the expansion of the EU’s borders to the east and south. France, once skeptical of welcoming new members to either group, has quietly supported both.
“We need a roadmap to membership for Ukraine,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in Bratislava, Slovakia, on May 31. “The question for us is not ‘Should we expand?’, but ‘How should we do it?’”
Two months later, on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the French leader, alongside Britain, Poland and the Baltic states, argued for a speedy push to admit Ukraine once the conflict ended.
Paris’s change has surprised many allies. Even the United States was taken aback. Former US diplomat Daniel Fried said that “the Biden administration was caught off guard” by the rapid change.
In 2008, it was France and Germany that blocked Ukraine from joining NATO. Just four years ago, Mr. Macron himself told The Economist (UK) that NATO was “brain dead.” Even in early 2022, this leader only occasionally worries about the security of Europe in general and Ukraine in particular.
But now the EU's eastern flank has unexpectedly found a new pillar.
France’s second change on EU enlargement is a bit more subtle. The parties will only discuss it in early October and a decision on the membership negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova will be made in December.
But for now, the negotiations are going well, even if they will require complex changes to the EU’s organizational rules. A Franco-German working group is examining the implications of such an adjustment. The European Commission will report back on the enlargement in October.
In the past, France has been wary of EU enlargement, seeing it as a threat to its policy of “deepening” the union and building a political project. On the contrary, while still in the bloc, London often called for enlargement and was skeptical that Paris wanted to turn Europe into a region for economic cooperation only. This is understandable, given that in 2019, France itself vetoed the opening of EU membership negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia.
However, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have prompted Emmanuel Macron to reconsider this approach. Last year, Parisian diplomats worked tirelessly to ensure that the EU would grant Kiev candidacy status. France also overturned its veto, allowing Albania and North Macedonia to begin negotiations with the EU on their membership of the regional union.
| “The question for us is not ‘Should we expand or not?’, but ‘How should we do it?’” (French President Emmanuel Macron speaking at the Globsec Forum in Bratislava, Slovakia on May 31) |
Doubt to move forward
However, there are still skeptics about the change. “It’s just a free lunch for Macron to support Ukraine’s NATO membership,” argued one European diplomat. France knows that the US will “put a brake” on the process if things go too far. Therefore, Paris is willing to show support for Kiev’s NATO membership to strengthen its role amid rising anti-Moscow sentiment.
Macron’s strategic interests in Central and Eastern Europe are also clear: The politician wants to improve his image in the two regions after unsuccessful dialogue with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin early in the conflict.
France's stance on NATO also has implications: A strong message to Moscow would strengthen Kiev's position in future negotiations.
But there are reasons to think that France’s twin shifts reflect a geopolitical reassessment. Mr Macron, one of Europe’s most ardent supporters, has long been particularly concerned with “European sovereignty”: the continent’s ability to shape its own future amid fierce great-power competition.
This concern is further highlighted by the impact from Russia, as well as a US led by Donald Trump if this politician wins enough votes in the US presidential election next year.
In that context, one official said, according to France, Europe “can no longer accept the ‘gray zone’ between the EU and Russia.” Countries on the edge of the continent need to become part of the EU or NATO to avoid being vulnerable.
But will this French vision become a reality?
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