US Presidential Election: 3 weeks of Ms. Harris's dramatic turnaround
Báo Dân trí•16/08/2024
(Dan Tri) - Although she joined the race for the White House late, US Vice President Kamala Harris is helping the Democratic Party turn the tables against Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In less than a month, the 2024 US presidential election is showing the most unexpected developments, even completely changing the election landscape. Incumbent President Joe Biden, the candidate who won the primaries, suddenly announced on July 21 that he would stop running due to pressure from within the party after a "disadvantaged" debate compared to Republican candidate Donald Trump. He supports passing the "torch" to Vice President Kamala Harris. This helps the Democratic Party restart the election campaign that had not had much prospect before, and at the same time closes one of the most chaotic months in recent US political history. 3 weeks Ms. Harris and the Democratic Party changed the situation Vice President Kamala Harris, who officially received enough delegates to become the Democratic candidate for president. Harris is the first woman of color to be nominated by a major party for president, marking a turning point in an election that has long been divided along racial and gender lines. While her campaign largely inherited Biden’s, her deployment has given new hope to Democrats who have grown increasingly less hopeful about their chances of defeating Trump. Despite entering the race late, Harris is showing signs of turning the tide. According to a New York Times poll released on Aug. 10, Harris leads Trump in key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In May, even before the debate, polls showed Biden tied or trailing Trump in battleground states.
US Vice President Kamala Harris (Photo: New York Times).
Harris has hired a number of senior campaign advisers since joining the race, replacing Biden loyalists with other veteran Democrats. Harris’s most talked-about choice of running mate has been Tim Walz, her vice presidential running mate. Together, Harris and Walz bring fresh faces to the race this year — another “plus” for the Democratic Party. Previously, the race for the White House offered voters two options, both of whom were familiar faces from the previous election: Biden and Trump. Walz is expected to campaign in traditionally Democratic states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris hopes he will appeal to white and non-college voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate in those battleground states. The Harris-Walz duo is also working to win back loyal and progressive voters. Polls show that Latinos are most concerned about housing and the economy, which could be key themes in Harris’s campaign in those states. Black voters still largely plan to vote Democratic, but Biden’s poor performance has shifted some support toward Trump, especially among young black men. Harris, whose father is Jamaican-American, could use her ethnicity to appeal to those voters. But strategists say she will need to focus on African-American policy concerns if she wants to win back their support. That includes a strong economic message and tough-on-crime policies. Ms. Harris has tried to mobilize women of color - an important group of Democratic voters who helped Mr. Biden win the Democratic nomination in 2020. In addition to the advantage of being new and supporting voters of color, Ms. Harris also has the advantage of age, being nearly 20 years younger than Mr. Trump. Age has gone from being a strength to a weakness for Mr. Trump. Mr. Biden's campaign previously suffered from losing support from young people who usually vote Democratic but have drifted away from the party because of opposition to his support for Israel and concerns about his age. Young voters are important to the Democratic Party because they often act as volunteers during the campaign. With a different message than President Biden, Ms. Harris also seems to have breathed new life into the campaign. Recently, Ms. Harris's first campaign video was released, accompanied by the song "Freedom" by Beyoncé. The messages are different, but the core themes are similar to what Biden said in his re-election campaign launch video. Specifically, President Biden wants his campaign to focus on "democracy" and the Capitol riots, while Ms. Harris wants to focus on "freedom" and "the future," referring to issues such as poverty, gun violence and abortion rights. Israel also plays a big role in voters' votes. When Mr. Biden was running, many Arab-American voters said they would not vote in November in protest of Mr. Biden's support for Israel in the Gaza war. Within days, Ms. Harris took a much tougher stance. She affirmed her support for the US's "unshakable" alliance with Israel, but also criticized Israel's military campaign in Gaza. That approach could help Democrats hold a state like Michigan, which is highly valued in the US electoral college system. The new energy is making Harris’s campaign a magnet for donors. Harris’s campaign announced it raised $310 million in July, its biggest haul so far in the 2024 cycle and double what Trump raised last month. More than $200 million of that came just a week after Biden announced he was dropping out. Officials supporting Harris’s campaign also reported that they had raised $1 billion overall, the fastest fundraising pace ever for a presidential campaign. Harris’s struggles While things may look bright for Democrats now that Harris is the nominee, challenges lie ahead. Harris’s experience as a California prosecutor could help her in her arguments against Trump, but it is also seen as one of her biggest weaknesses. Harris’s background as a prosecutor is why she has struggled at times to articulate her vision for the country. Compared to politicians who are governors or members of Congress, prosecutors often have less experience crafting a policy message. This was evident early in her campaign when she was sometimes unable to describe her own policies, especially Medicare. Her poll numbers were so weak that she dropped out before the Iowa caucuses. As vice president, she has repeatedly made meandering statements. Another reason she has struggled to articulate her message may be that Harris has rarely had to engage with the swing voters who decide presidential elections. She hails from California, where Democrats dominate. She has struggled to make arguments on pocketbooks, global trade, and border security. Another major challenge for Harris is the problems of the current administration, of which she is now vice president. Polls have shown that Biden’s campaign has been struggling for months. His immigration and economic policies are not supported. The current administration’s negative reputation will certainly have a big impact on her image in the eyes of voters. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Biden’s continued support for Israel in the war in Gaza has reduced his support among young voters. Although Harris is making significant efforts to convince voters, the fact is that even within the Democratic Party, she is not completely trusted. Only about 6 in 10 Democrats trust her more than Trump to do a better job handling the war in Gaza, which is the lowest percentage in her party on the issues asked. Finally, there is the issue of gender bias among American voters. Kamala Harris’s ascension to the Democratic nomination raises a key question for American voters: Is the country ready for its first female president? Especially since Americans have never elected a woman to the White House. Polls have found a large gender gap in whether Harris and Trump are considered strong leaders. Detailed results from Marquette University show that while white women are only slightly more likely to describe Trump as strong than Harris, the former president’s advantage over her exceeds 25 points when it comes to white men. A July New York Times/Siena poll found that about one in six white men without a college degree said they saw Harris as a strong leader. Those ratings could make it difficult for Harris to maintain the minimum level of male support she needs to win. In other words, despite the party’s rising morale, Ms. Harris begins the presidential race from a weak position. To win, she will need a “both offensive and defensive” strategy to effectively deal with Republican candidate Donald Trump. Mr. Trump’s campaign strategy in disarray
Mr. Trump claimed that Ms. Harris was easier to deal with, but in reality, his path back to the White House could be bumpier when Ms. Harris joins the race (Photo: AFP).
Despite facing many challenges, Ms. Harris's campaign will certainly force Mr. Trump to adjust his campaign strategy. Less than a month ago, Mr. Trump's team was still completely confident of his resounding victory in the November election. Now, everything is different. "The race has changed," Corey Lewandowski, a longtime adviser to Mr. Trump, told Reuters. The adviser admitted that they would rather run against Mr. Biden because Mr. Trump's chances of winning were higher. His opponent now is not the candidate his team has been working hard to understand. His opponent is the first female black vice president of the United States. Mr. Trump's aides said they want to defeat Vice President Harris by promoting her as a San Francisco liberal who is responsible for illegal border crossings and inflation. But in the past few days, Mr. Trump has repeatedly abandoned that message and turned to a more familiar approach: personal attacks. Mr. Trump’s style of attack has proven effective in the past, forcing his opponents to spend time on defense rather than addressing issues. That’s especially true for female candidates and even more difficult for Ms. Harris, who has faced attacks based on her race and gender. People close to Mr. Trump are skeptical about the effectiveness of personal attacks on Ms. Harris. Instead, they want Mr. Trump to take a stand on food prices, gas prices, illegal border crossings and praise his foreign policy legacy, while avoiding any mention of his opponent’s race or gender. Mr. Trump’s team has also sought to tie Ms. Harris to controversial policies of President Joe Biden’s administration. Concerns about the economic and social situation under President Biden have helped Republicans prevail for much of the election so far. Harris, as vice president, will be more or less tied to the entire footprint of the current administration. That’s why Republicans have tried to pin immigration controversies on Harris. Trump’s team has also targeted Harris’s background as a prosecutor. Harris was a former district attorney and California attorney general who took on “all kinds of criminals.” Trump’s campaign has criticized her for being too tough, especially on black men who have committed drug crimes. The attack is aimed at undermining Harris’s support among some voters. They also cite instances where Harris has chosen not to prosecute or granted pardons to individuals who have committed new crimes. However, some Republicans worry that the former president’s attack strategy is driving the campaign in a divisive direction that will hurt the Republican Party itself. David Kochel, a longtime Republican strategist, said the attacks, especially on race, were unnecessary and dangerous. Trump’s attack strategy could even backfire while the Harris-Walz duo focused on policy issues such as refugees and immigration, fighting inflation, women’s rights to abortion, social justice, respect for democracy and the rule of law. According to analysts, with less than three months to go until the election, Trump needs to find a new message to attract voters’ support, when facing a younger and more dynamic candidate.
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