Exports to the US market 2025: Positive outlook

The United States is currently Vietnam's largest export market. By seizing opportunities and addressing challenges, Vietnam can increase exports to this market.

Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh – The economic expert had an interview with the reporter of Industry and Trade Newspaper about this issue.

- How do you evaluate the US market for Vietnamese goods?

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh: According to the Department of European and American Markets (Ministry of Industry and Trade), Vietnam has become the 8th largest trading partner of the United States and the 4th largest export market of the United States in the ASEAN region. Conversely, the United States is the 2nd largest trading partner and the largest export market of Vietnam.

The United States is currently Vietnam's largest export market. (Illustration photo)

According to the report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2024, the total import-export turnover will set a new record, estimated at 783 billion USD; of which exports are estimated at 403 billion USD; imports are estimated at 380 billion USD), exceeding by more than 100 billion compared to the level of 681 billion USD in 2023. In terms of markets, exports to the United States - Vietnam's largest export market - are estimated at 119.7 billion USD, accounting for 29.5% of total export turnover, an increase of 23.4% compared to 2023 (decreased by 11.3% in 2023).

2025 promises to be a year of strong growth in trade relations between Vietnam and the United States, with total export turnover expected to reach 125-130 billion USD. In particular, Vietnam's key export industries such as textiles, wooden handicrafts, electronic machinery and equipment, and agricultural products will continue to maintain positive growth momentum in 2025.

Specifically, the textile and garment industry is expected to reach 25 billion USD, growing thanks to the increasing demand for high-quality and environmentally friendly products. Fine art wooden furniture, with strong growth potential, is expected to reach 10 billion USD, an increase of more than 20% compared to 2024. For the agricultural and aquatic products industry, including key products such as shrimp, pangasius, and cashew nuts, it is forecast to reach a turnover of over 7 billion USD.

- Is the 2025 import-export target of more than 800 billion USD too high in the context of the volatile world market and the policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump that will impact Vietnam's import-export activities?

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh : Obviously, the milestone of more than 800 billion USD compared to the 2024 plan, this is a relatively large number, but if compared to the actual figure in 2024, there is every reason to believe that we can achieve this figure.

In addition, the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States will have many impacts on the import and export activities of countries, including Vietnam. Donald Trump's policy is towards the United States, America is above all, so it can impose high taxes on imported goods and some countries.

Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh. (Photo: NH)

However, Mr. Donald Trump is a businessman and has very sharp views. We also hope that the policies of the President-elect Donald Trump administration, if not too different from the previous term, will be a good opportunity for Vietnam to boost import and export activities.

Currently, Vietnam's largest export market is the United States. With President Donald Trump and the current US administration, they understand Vietnam better, so they are not too "scrutinizing" Vietnamese goods. Of course, they still have requirements for goods to ensure that goods exported to their country must meet the standards, so we must also strive to meet the standards they set.

But I think these things are not too important. Because talking about tax policy and other issues, the US is above all, when the US economy grows well, the income of the US people increases, their spending will also increase and they will increase the import of goods. On the other hand, when their production grows well, they also have to import raw materials and components. So, these are the conditions for us to be able to export goods better.

The US government imposes taxes on all imported goods into their market. Taxation means that goods are sold at a higher price and are harder to sell, but this applies to the whole world, not just Vietnam. On the other hand, imposing taxes on some large countries like China will benefit Vietnamese goods. Because many Vietnamese goods such as textiles, footwear, and wooden furniture are similar to Chinese goods, and if they are taxed highly, Vietnamese goods will have a better chance of being exported to this market.

The tax on Mexico also benefits Vietnamese goods because Mexico mainly exports agricultural products to the United States, so Vietnam's competitiveness will be better.

Not to mention, the way of managing the exchange rate is to keep the VND stable with the USD. We do not devalue the currency, therefore, we are completely capable of exporting goods to the United States in the near future.

On the other hand, if we keep the VND stable with the USD, it will make investors actively invest in Vietnam, Vietnam's economy will grow higher, we will have more access to new machinery and technology from the world and the export capacity will be better.

Of course, there will be changes, we must closely monitor, be flexible, proactive and actively change ourselves to adapt. However, the general picture is that production, business, import and export activities of Vietnam in general and to the US market in particular will be better.

- To achieve the import-export target of more than 800 billion USD in 2025, what is the solution, sir?

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh: To achieve export goals, in addition to the efforts of enterprises, support from state management agencies, especially the Ministry of Industry and Trade, is needed.

Accordingly, first , the Ministry of Industry and Trade must seek and grasp market information through trade offices, embassies, first of all markets that have signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). In fact, Vietnamese enterprises have taken advantage of opportunities from FTAs ​​but not much.

Second , the Ministry of Industry and Trade must seek new markets, expand import and export markets, thereby diversifying import and export activities, avoiding over-concentration. This helps businesses avoid shocks when the US changes its policies or has problems in the economy. Of course, the US is the world's largest consumer market and this is currently the market where Vietnam exports the most.

Third , we must organize connections between businesses and industry associations with foreign importers. How to get more and smoother orders.

Fourth , promote the connection of domestic enterprises that need to connect with each other, increase the localization rate, meet the requirements of being greener and cleaner, thereby promoting better import and export activities.

Connecting to create a purely Vietnamese production and business chain or a purely Vietnamese value chain is important to enhance the reputation and national brand of products. On that basis, higher value can be created for businesses in the national economy.

Fifth , protecting the interests of Vietnamese enterprises abroad, this has been done but still lacks initiative. It is necessary to enhance the initiative in protecting the interests of Vietnamese enterprises in trade disputes and trade defense. From there, there will be prompt and timely handling so that enterprises can ensure import and export activities more smoothly and safely.

Thank you!

Consumers in the United States are shifting to sustainable products, opening up great opportunities for Vietnamese businesses to promote production innovation and increase supply chain value. Businesses need to regularly update market information to seize export opportunities and limit risks.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-sang-thi-truong-hoa-ky-2025-trien-vong-tich-cuc-367714.html