'I dare not predict when the real estate market will recover'

Real estate market to recover well in 2024?

On September 28, Vietnam Real Estate Electronic Magazine (reatimes.vn) organized the first Autumn Real Estate Forum with the theme: Forecasting the recovery time of the real estate market and investment recommendations. Many real estate, legal, financial experts and representatives of ministries, sectors and enterprises attended.

Many experts, representatives of enterprises, ministries and sectors attended the real estate forum with the topic of forecasting the time when the market will recover.

Discussing at the forum, many experts said that the real estate market has shown better signs. Especially in the second quarter and the first months of the third quarter, it was much more positive than the first quarter.

Experts believe that in the coming time, the financial and monetary markets and the real estate market will prepare to receive good news and gradually recover. Some experts believe that in the early second quarter to the third quarter of 2024, the real estate market will have many positive signals. A few cautious opinions state that at the end of 2024, the real estate market will really have positive recoveries.

Experts discuss the challenges, drivers and timing of real estate recovery

Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), said that the real estate market has recently suffered from a lack of supply, reduced demand, lack of interest from local authorities, and a lack of capital. Therefore, the health of real estate businesses is weakening, requiring them to reduce project scale, scope of operations, cut costs, and personnel.

However, according to VARS statistics, in the second quarter and early third quarter, the number of successful real estate transactions changed more positively than in the first quarter, although the level was not much. As liquidity increased, the market will release secondary goods and unsold goods. This shows that the Government's management policies are starting to show results, but it is necessary to speed up the completion of laws and policies affecting the real estate market.

"I predict that the recovery will begin around the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. From the third quarter of 2024, the recovery will be stronger and clearer when policies to remove difficulties for real estate have a better impact," said Mr. Dinh.

Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh predicts that by the end of 2023, the real estate market will begin to recover.

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV Bank, said that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, but the strong push will start from the first quarter of 2024 because bank interest rates have been decreasing. In addition, the penetration of the Government's support policies in the past will be better by that time. Especially in October, the National Assembly will pass 4 laws directly related to real estate: Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law and Bidding Law to help clear legal problems. Not to mention, at that time, the macroeconomic recovery situation of the world and Vietnam will be clearer.

Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, lecturer at the Academy of Finance, predicts that around the second quarter of 2024, the real estate market will begin to recover more clearly. According to Mr. Thinh, recently, ministries, branches, and the Government have all taken action to remove difficulties for real estate, from legal to financial problems. In addition, real estate businesses are restructuring their strategies and investment plans to quickly bring cash flow back. In addition, from around mid-2024, a number of affordable real estates will be introduced to the market, creating liquidity and promoting recovery.

Dr. Le Xuan Nghia believes that the key point for real estate recovery is how to bring a large amount of affordable housing to the market.

Hard to predict when real estate will recover

Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said that in order for the real estate market to recover, it is necessary to focus on solving the affordable housing shortage crisis. To do so, a large supply of affordable housing is needed to meet people's needs, create liquidity to warm up the market as well as create a low price level, balancing the current high prices. To have a supply of affordable housing on the market, it will be available in the third quarter of 2024 at the earliest. Therefore, Mr. Nghia predicts that there will be signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2024.

Professor Dang Hung Vo, former Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, said that for the real estate market to recover, it requires the decisive and intelligent participation of the entire political system. According to Professor Vo, it is very difficult to predict when the real estate market will recover because this process depends on many factors: legal reform, land use planning, financial and monetary situation, macroeconomics, etc. If we rush and force recovery, it will only last for a short time and may soon fall into crisis.

Professor Dang Hung Vo said that it is very difficult to predict when real estate will recover because this process depends on many factors.

"I don't dare predict when real estate will recover, because this is a market with a lot of inertia and a large amount of capital. If the market rises, it is difficult to restrain it, but when it is stagnant, it is not easy to push it. Moreover, the real estate market is affected by many domestic and foreign factors, so it is very difficult to predict recovery," said Professor Vo.

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