Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once again emerged as the brightest star at the annual gathering of world leaders in Munich this past week, receiving standing ovations, handshakes and vows of unwavering support.
But the harsh reality is that Ukraine has just lost an important stronghold to the Russian Army after 10 years of stalemate. What Mr. Zelensky needs are weapons, not admiration from allies.
Despite having a combined economic power about 25 times that of Russia, Western partners are failing to translate their financial advantage into overwhelming firepower for the Ukrainian army on the front line.
The end of the 10 year battle
The Russian Defense Ministry has just declared “full control” over the city of Avdiivka (called Avdeevka by the Russians) on the Dobass frontline. The Russian statement was made on the same day as Ukraine announced its withdrawal from this “hot spot” after months of tension.
In a short statement posted on Facebook, Ukraine's new commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said his troops were moving to "more favorable lines".
“Our soldiers performed their military duty honorably, doing everything possible to destroy the best Russian military units, inflicting significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment. We are taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions,” the statement said.
Russia declared “full control” over the city of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, February 17, 2024. Photo: Sputnik
The battle for the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region actually began 10 years ago. The situation escalated over the past two weeks as Russian forces moved into the northeastern and southern edges of the city and launched a series of attacks.
The Russian Defense Ministry said on February 17 that its forces had advanced 5.3 miles (8.5 km) since Ukraine announced its withdrawal. Specifically, the Russian military had taken control of 31.75 square kilometers (13.3 square miles) of territory from Ukrainian forces, and Ukraine had lost more than 1,500 servicemen in the battles for Avdiivka in the past 24 hours, the ministry said.
According to the Russian side, some Ukrainian units are still present in the city, mainly at the Avdiivka coke and chemical plant, which has become the last defensive stronghold.
“Measures are being taken to completely clear the town of militants and blockade Ukrainian units that have left the town and entrenched themselves at the Avdiivka chemical and coke plant,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.
Videos posted on social media on February 17 showed soldiers raising a Russian flag on one of the factory buildings. Russian President Vladimir Putin personally sent a message of congratulations to his troops in the city, the state-run TASS news agency reported.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the capture of Avdiivka as an “important victory”.
Ukrainian soldiers fire howitzers at Russian positions in the direction of Avdiivka, early February 2024. On February 17, 2024, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from this frontline city. Photo: NY Times
The town of Avdiivka, once home to 32,000 people, has been completely razed after months of fighting. Ukrainian officials say not a single building in the town remains intact, and fewer than 1,000 people remain there.
This is Russia's biggest achievement since capturing the city of Bakhmut last May. It is also seen as another step towards securing Russian control over the regional center of Donetsk, about 22 km east of Avdiivka, which has been held by Russian and pro-Russian forces since 2014.
However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that capturing Avdiivka was only a symbolic victory for Russia and would not bring significant changes to the 930-mile (1,500 km) long front line.
“Russia’s capture of Avdiivka would not be operationally significant and would likely only provide the Kremlin with immediate political and informational victories,” the Washington DC-based think tank said in an assessment on February 15.
Harsh reality
In a nearly two-year war with fierce counterattacks, Ukraine is now back on the defensive against the Russian Army due to a shortage of ammunition and manpower.
Speaking at the 60th Munich Security Conference in Germany on February 17, President Zelensky warned his country's allies that an "artificial shortage" of weapons for Ukraine could give Russia breathing space and allow "Mr. Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war."
“Our actions are limited only by… our strength,” Mr. Zelensky said, pointing to the situation in Avdiivka after the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces said he was withdrawing troops from the city to prevent a siege scenario and save the lives of soldiers.
Two years ago, at the same conference, the Ukrainian President warned of a full-scale Russian military attack on his country. The West tried to dissuade Putin from taking action with warnings of dire consequences, but in the end, as of February 24, 2022, the European security landscape has changed fundamentally and forever.
Britain, the United States and other partners rushed to Ukraine with anti-tank missiles and later tanks and long-range ammunition. This support initially helped Ukraine “turn the tide” and retake some territory. However, a counteroffensive last summer failed when Ukraine’s limited military capabilities could not penetrate the dense Russian defenses.
Now, back in Munich again on the eve of the two-year mark of the war, Mr Zelensky faces a stark reality.
Speaking hours after receiving news of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the city of Avdiivka, Mr Zelensky said: “Please do not ask Ukraine when the war will end. Ask yourself: Why is Putin still able to continue the war?”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at the 60th Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany, February 17, 2024. Photo: NY Times
The Ukrainian leader also reiterated his call for faster deliveries of artillery shells and long-range missiles. But internal turmoil is limiting the West’s ability to support Kiev. This is especially true of the United States, Ukraine’s most important backer.
Washington is distracted by the upcoming presidential election, with Donald Trump returning to the White House. A change in leadership in the world's number one power would have a significant impact on Ukraine's war effort and once again revive friction within the NATO alliance.
Growing tensions between Republican and Democratic lawmakers in recent months have delayed passage of a crucial additional aid package for Ukraine.
In a phone call on February 17 with his Ukrainian counterpart, US President Joe Biden said that the fall of Avdiivka was the fault of Republican lawmakers who supported Mr. Trump because they continued to block a multi-billion dollar military aid package for Ukraine.
“The Ukrainian military was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka after Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition as supplies dwindled due to congressional inaction, resulting in Russia’s first significant gains in months,” the White House said in a statement after the call.
The US Senate has passed a $95.3 billion foreign aid package, nearly two-thirds of which is for Ukraine, but US House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he will not “rush” to approve the bill.
As the “leader” of the US House of Representatives, Mr. Johnson blocked a vote on the bill despite overwhelming support from most Democrats and nearly half of Republicans.
Mr Trump, who is almost certain to represent the Republican Party in the US presidential election later this year, has called for the bill to be blocked.
In stark contrast to the West's wavering, Russia has put its economy on a war footing, with money being pumped into producing more weapons, ammunition and boosting its defense industrial capacity... .
Minh Duc (According to Sky News, The Independent, AP)
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