The stock market experienced a negative trading week when selling pressure increased, causing the VN-Index to lose more than 100 points. The plunge at the end of the first session of the week alone took away 60 points - the sharpest decline in nearly 2 years, since May 12, 2022. This decline also caused the Vietnamese stock market to have the sharpest decline in Asia in the session on April 15.
Only on the third session, the market lost less than 1 point thanks to the "carrying" of the banking and chemical groups. However, the widespread selling pressure caused the VN-Index to officially "break" the 1,200 point mark.
At the end of the week, VN-Index decreased by 101.75 points, equivalent to 7.97% to 1,174.85 points, HNX decreased by 20.54 points, equivalent to 8.51% to 220.8 points. Total market capitalization also "evaporated" 480,000 billion VND in one week to about 6.28 million billion VND.
In terms of contribution, BID, MSB and QCG were the stocks with the most positive impact on the market, contributing nearly 0.5 points to the index. On the contrary, VIC, CTG and FPT were the three stocks with the most negative impact, with VIC alone taking away more than 2.1 points from the market.
VN-Index performance last week (Source: TradingView).
Assessing the market trading performance last week, Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa - Head of Analysis Department of Agriseco Securities Company said that the adjustment phase is necessary in the process of the index's upward movement, especially when the VN-Index has increased by nearly 15% since the beginning of the year without any significant discount.
In the short term, the market is also affected by some information related to international geopolitical tensions, forecasts that the Fed will postpone the interest rate cut schedule as well as domestic exchange rate pressure. In case the exchange rate has not cooled down, interest rates may have to be increased to control the exchange rate, which will affect the cash flow in the market and the cash flow into the stock channel.
In the immediate future, the support zone of 1,120 - 1,130 points will be the support point for the index.
According to data from securities companies, margin debt is estimated to have reached nearly VND 200,000 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2024, an increase of VND 23,000 billion compared to the end of 2023. Notably, this is a record high to date, exceeding the margin debt in the early period of 2022 when the VN-Index was at the peak of 1,500 points.
According to Mr. Khoa, if the market continues to decline, the "margin call" situation at securities companies will occur widely and there will be a decline to reduce the margin debt at the present time.
With many stocks having reached more attractive prices after the market's deep correction, Mr. Khoa recommends that investors can soon disburse to increase the proportion of VN30 stocks, large capitalization in the upcoming sessions when selling pressure is balanced. On the contrary, gradually reduce the proportion as well as limit new disbursements for speculative stocks during the recovery and comply with the discipline of cutting losses.
Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company forecasts that the short-term market trend will remain at a downward level. Therefore, this securities company recommends that short-term investors limit selling at this stage and observe market developments. At the same time, if investors accept high risks and have a high cash ratio, they should consider disbursing with a low ratio to explore the short-term trend.
The market is currently showing signs of entering a medium-term accumulation phase, so it may experience narrow fluctuations in the coming trading weeks. In addition, the general medium-term trend of the market has been lowered to neutral. Therefore, Yuanta recommends that medium-term investors can temporarily stop buying in the coming trading weeks.
Sharing the same view, Saigon - Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS) is concerned that the VN-Index will continue to decline and the risk of the index falling to deeper levels is increasing. Short-term investors should take advantage of the recovery to reduce the proportion of their portfolio to a safe level.
The market is currently moving back to a wide accumulation channel of 1,150 points - 1,250 points, and this process may take a long time. Therefore, medium-term investors should not disburse in the current context, but should patiently wait for a more reliable accumulation phase.
According to SHS, in the macro parameters, the notable point is weak credit growth, showing the low capital absorption capacity of the economy. Exchange rates remain high, difficulties with the real estate market, especially corporate bonds, have not had a fundamental change. The mixed macroeconomic situation, good and bad, and increasing world instability are part of the reasons why stocks are under pressure to adjust .
Source
Comment (0)