ANTD.VN - Experts say that many signals show that some real estate segments have reached the "bottom", the market is starting to change, preparing for a recovery period around the beginning of next year.
Transaction volume doubled at the beginning of the year
According to research data from the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), liquidity in the real estate market is gradually improving, especially compared to the difficult period at the end of last year and the first months of this year. Especially in localities with developed economies, attention and focus on promoting investment in infrastructure and transportation, with many sources of supply suitable to demand such as Hanoi, Hai Phong, Lao Cai, Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City... According to Ms. Pham Thi Mien - Deputy Head of Market Research and Real Estate Investment Promotion Consulting (VARS), the above results are thanks to the efforts, connections and close coordination between State management agencies and enterprises. Especially thanks to the drastic actions of the Government and agencies, ministries and branches to remove difficulties and obstacles, develop a safe, healthy and sustainable real estate market.
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Experts expect the real estate market to recover around early next year. |
The results of a recent survey by VARS with members who are active real estate brokers show that up to 60% of respondents said that their customers, who are investors who have participated in the real estate market before, will invest in real estate if interest rates continue to decrease. However, to ensure safety in the context of difficult production and business, and the economy's poor capital absorption capacity, they will be more cautious in choosing and calculating, exploiting financial loan packages for "deposited" assets as well as will not go all-in on these investment channels. In addition, most of the brokers interviewed also highly appreciated the efforts of the State management agency and forecasted a positive recovery of the real estate market.
Specifically, nearly 20 relevant sub-law documents and actions have been issued by the Government continuously and intensively, with content increasingly closer to the actual needs of the market and businesses in the spirit of absorbing comments, amending and supplementing in a direction consistent with the national housing strategy.
Information about hundreds of projects being dismantled and restarted has contributed to creating more confidence and strength for the market as well as the participants. Thereby, helping the market to be better next month than last month, and better next quarter than last quarter. VARS representative said that although the market is not strong enough to "overcome the slope", it has somewhat escaped the risk of "losing the brakes".
Accordingly, the number of transactions has increased over time with more products suitable to people's needs being introduced to the market. In the second quarter of 2023, the market recorded 3,700 transactions, an increase of 37% compared to 2,700 in the first quarter. By the third quarter, the market had recorded nearly 6,000 transactions, 1.5 times higher than the second quarter and more than twice that of the first quarter.
However, in the first 9 months of the year, the transaction volume was only about 50% compared to the same period last year and about 20% compared to the land fever period. The reason is that the market still lacks supply of social housing and affordable housing segments due to the continuous increase in housing prices and no sign of stopping. Of which, nearly 90% of the total transaction volume is apartments from projects developed by reputable investors, large cities such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Hai Phong, Da Nang. This is a product that always leads in demand, meeting both real housing needs and investment needs in the context of increasingly scarce supply of this segment.
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The real estate market is lacking in supply segments that meet real needs. |
Many segments and regions have surpassed the "bottom"
Forecasting the real estate market in the coming time, experts have made many different comments, but the common point is that the comments all believe that some segments in many localities have shown signs of "bottoming out". Signs to recognize include: No more deep discounts, price reductions stop or prices start to increase, investor sentiment recovers positively...
“According to my observation, the real estate market in big cities has shown signs of breaking the “bottom”, focusing on the apartment segment, housing priced under 10 billion VND in the central core area. The land segment has not shown any positive signs but has shown signs of breaking the “bottom” in the auctioned land type, in the area around Hanoi, the price is around 2 billion VND, with an absorption rate of 70 - 80% with the auction price about 5% higher than the starting price, and can be transferred immediately with a difference of 30 - 50 million VND/plot. Meanwhile, the resort real estate segment is still gloomy”, said Mr. Le Dinh Chung - General Director of SGO Homes.
However, to ensure the growth cycle of the above segments meets expectations as well as promote the recovery process in other segments and regions, according to experts, there need to be mechanisms and policies to improve supply to the market.
Mr. Nguyen Dinh Cuong - Head of Market Research and Consulting (VARS) said that currently the supply is still stuck, only about 10% of projects have been cleared. Although there have been more large enterprises participating in implementing social housing and commercial housing projects, Mr. Cuong commented that the real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2023 will hardly record a sudden change in the short term because the supply has not yet been able to make a breakthrough. The reason is that the projects need a relatively long time to be able to implement and meet the conditions for opening for sale. The number of social housing projects that will be opened for sale in the near future is still very small compared to the demand.
Mr. Tran Van Binh - General Secretary and Vice Chairman of VARS said that, along with legal and capital bottlenecks, the trust of customers and investors is the "last barrier" that needs to be resolved for the real estate market to truly return to "normal". "The real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be a stepping stone for the transformation in 2024. The overall picture of the market will certainly have many new bright spots. Especially in areas with a lot of room for development, with synchronous and modern planning, infrastructure that is interested and focused on investment, and prices that are not high" - Mr. Binh commented.
Similarly, Mr. Nguyen Van Khoi - Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) also said that from the third quarter of the past year to the first two quarters of 2024, there will be more positive highlights. In particular, the social housing and industrial real estate segments will have the most positive signs. Accordingly, from the second and third quarters of next year, the real estate market will officially enter the recovery cycle, projects will be implemented more strongly, creating a large supply for the market. In particular, the social housing and industrial real estate segments still dominate. With new commercial housing projects, it is hoped that the completion of the law in the near future will make it easier for projects to develop.
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