ASEAN's Challenges in Managing Disputes in the East Sea

In an article published in the Hindustan Times, Indian scholar Rahul Mishra* argued that ASEAN seems to be moving into a phase where the bloc will do more than just "defend" against China.

According to the author, the South China Sea has long been the focus of global attention due to escalating tensions between superpowers, territorial disputes, and China’s moves in the region, including the publication of the so-called “2023 standard map” that includes additional territories in the South China Sea. This map also illegally claims some territories disputed with India - something that has been strongly opposed by Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India.

Thách thức của ASEAN về quản lý tranh chấp tại Biển Đông

Leaders attending the 20th ASEAN-India Summit within the framework of the 43rd ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Jakarta, Indonesia. (Photo: Anh Son)

China is known for its dual strategies in the South China Sea. On the one hand, it is engaged in a protracted dialogue with ASEAN countries on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (CoC), while on the other hand, it is relentlessly pursuing a “salami-slicing” strategy, reclaiming islands and intensifying grey zone activities in the South China Sea. This poses a challenge to regional stability, directly affecting ASEAN, especially in a context that requires the ability to resolve issues peacefully.

The article notes that China’s gray zone tactics in the South China Sea have been intensified under the leadership of General Secretary Xi Jinping. Since 2013, Beijing has significantly deployed land reclamation activities and militarized these islands. China has increased the use of maritime militia to threaten ASEAN countries with claims in the South China Sea. The latest incident was the Philippine Coast Guard being sprayed with water cannons by Chinese ships in these areas of the sea.

The international community has condemned China's use of water cannons against the Philippines. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs criticized China's actions, calling them an act that undermines efforts to build trust between Manila and Beijing. The author said that China escalated tensions by releasing a controversial map claiming sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, Taiwan and areas surrounding a vast territory including parts of India.

Historically, most ASEAN member states have used “defensive measures” as a strategy in dealing with China, while at the same time ASEAN has prioritized both “conflict avoidance” and “conflict management” as parallel tools to manage disputes in the South China Sea. According to Indian experts, both strategies have achieved suboptimal results in controlling China’s behavior, especially its unilateral actions in the South China Sea.

While China has become the most important trading partner for ASEAN countries, the United States remains a key security partner for many coastal states, while key European Union (EU) countries, Japan, Australia and India also play important roles in maintaining regional security stability. Rapid geopolitical changes have led to changing perceptions of China, which was clearly reflected in Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s statement at the Future of Asia Conference on October 5, 2023.

“The United States has been dominant in this region, and it has given countries the space to grow and develop and compete with each other peacefully and without being coerced or imposed upon. And that is why they are still welcome after all these years. And if China can achieve something similar, I think the region can prosper,” he said.

This statement, according to scholar Rahul Mishra, summarizes the views of ASEAN and most member states on both China and the US.

China’s growing assertiveness is increasingly seen as an immediate security concern, while doubts about the United States’ status as a reliable partner have also resurfaced. President Joe Biden’s absence from the East Asia Summit in Jakarta was a telling sign. ASEAN remains reluctant to publicly show solidarity with the United States, even as economic dependence and concerns about provoking tensions with China continue to hamper its efforts.

Moreover, the bloc has struggled to articulate a unified position to defend its common interests. After China announced its “standard map 2023,” ASEAN did not issue a joint statement. Instead, many member states issued separate statements. The Philippines under President Bongbong Marcos adopted a more assertive foreign policy toward China and reconsidered its alliance with the United States.

It is understandable that Southeast Asian countries are caught in a dilemma when dealing with China while remaining cautious in expressing their views on the South China Sea. The recent statement by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on the issue is a case in point. Malaysia criticized China after it published the map, but the Malaysian leader later softened his stance on China’s explanation.

Member of the Politburo and Minister of National Defense of Vietnam, General Phan Van Giang (second from right) leads the high-ranking Vietnamese military delegation to attend the 9th ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus in Cambodia, December 3-5, 2023. (Source: VNA)

According to researcher Rahul Mishra, this hesitation stems from China’s actions in both asserting its territorial claims and demonstrating a sincere commitment to resolving disagreements and differences. This is one of the reasons why any statements or attempts to assuage the concerns of Southeast Asian countries are often accepted without significant resistance.

However, Mr. Rahul Mishra said that ASEAN seems to be moving into a phase where it will do more than just “defend” against China. Strengthening bilateral and multilateral defense and security ties with the US, Japan, the EU, Australia and India, and trying to build a unified ASEAN stance, have demonstrated this strategy. The ASEAN Solidarity Exercise – the first ASEAN joint military exercise and the establishment of the ASEAN Maritime Outlook demonstrate ASEAN’s determination to pay more attention to the challenges facing the bloc in the South China Sea as well as the wider Indo-Pacific region.

Chinese leader Yang Jiechi’s 2010 statement about the power imbalance between China and Southeast Asian countries remains relevant today. In his speech at the 17th ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi, Vietnam, as Chinese Foreign Minister, he asserted: “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, that is just a fact.” Challenges from China are causing many countries in the region to reconsider their stance towards China.

While ASEAN acknowledges the challenges posed by China, finding a satisfactory approach to resolving the South China Sea dispute remains elusive, says Rahul Mishra. Member states are increasingly relying on external partnerships and formulating individual responses. However, the ultimate solution to the South China Sea issue and China’s dilemma must come from within ASEAN itself.

* Principal Research Fellow , Indo -Pacific Research and Outreach Programme , Coordinator, European Studies Programme, University of Malaya, Malaysia.

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