(TN&MT) - On the morning of February 12, at the opening session of the 9th extraordinary session, the National Assembly heard a report on the Supplementary Project on socio-economic development in 2025 with a growth target of 8% or more.
Fast but sustainable growth
Authorized by the Prime Minister, presenting the Report on the Supplementary Project on Socio-Economic Development in 2025 with a growth target of 8% or more, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that the context and situation in 2025 are forecasted to continue to closely follow the major trends discussed and agreed upon by the Central Committee and the National Assembly. Opportunities, advantages, difficulties and challenges are intertwined, but difficulties and challenges are more numerous, and can have a significant impact on our country's economy. In the midst of difficulties and challenges, new opportunities may also appear, we need to proactively grasp and make the most of all opportunities and resources for growth and development.
The year 2025 is of special importance, being the final year of implementing the 5-year Socio-Economic Development Plan 2021-2025, the year of acceleration, breakthrough, and reaching the finish line, and at the same time the year of focusing on organizing Party Congresses at all levels towards the 14th National Party Congress and consolidating and preparing well the fundamental factors to successfully implement the 10-year Strategy 2021-2030, marking the time when the country enters a new era of development. Any 2021-2025 target that has not been achieved must be determined to be completed; any target that has been achieved must be improved in quality and efficiency.
Therefore, the country's GDP growth in 2025 needs to reach 8% or more, contributing to creating a solid foundation for achieving double-digit growth rates over a long enough period (starting from 2026). Growth must be rapid but sustainable, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances; harmonious development between the economy and society and environmental protection, ensuring national defense and security.
With a growth scenario of 8% or more in 2025, the growth of the industrial and construction sector will be about 9.5% or more (of which the processing and manufacturing industry will increase by 9.7% or more); services will increase by 8.1% or more; agriculture, forestry and fishery will increase by 3.9% or more). Economic sectors will grow about 0.7-1.3% higher than in 2024; industry and construction, especially the processing and manufacturing industry, will continue to be the driving force for growth.
GDP scale in 2025 is about over 500 billion USD, GDP per capita is about over 5,000 USD.
Growth drivers include: Total social investment capital of about 174 billion USD or more, approximately 33.5% of GDP (higher than 3 billion USD); of which public investment is about 36 billion USD (equivalent to 875 trillion VND, about 84.3 trillion VND higher than the assigned plan for 2025 of 790.7 trillion VND), private investment is about 96 billion USD, FDI is about 28 billion USD, other investment is about 14 billion USD. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (current prices) in 2025 will increase by about 12% or more. Total import-export turnover in 2025 will increase by 12% or more; trade surplus is about 30 billion USD.
The average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is about 4.5-5%.
Need new thinking, new ways of doing things, breakthroughs in institutions and solutions
According to Minister Nguyen Chi Dung, the conditions for implementing the growth scenario of 8% or more require new thinking, new ways of doing things, breakthroughs in institutions and solutions; thorough decentralization and delegation of power. Completing the work of streamlining the organizational apparatus to be efficient and effective, without affecting the people and production and business activities of enterprises in the short term.
Promote the leading role of growth of dynamic regions, economic corridors and growth poles. In particular, the GRDP growth of localities in 2025 must be at least 8-10%, especially Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, potential localities, large cities that are locomotives and growth poles must strive for a growth rate higher than the national average; have appropriate incentive mechanisms for localities with high growth, with regulation to the Central Government.
Promote and renew traditional growth drivers of investment, consumption and export; strongly develop science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and high-quality human resources to become increasingly important driving forces and factors promoting growth.
If necessary, the state budget deficit can be adjusted to about 4-4.5% of GDP to mobilize resources for development investment; public debt, government debt, and foreign debt can reach or exceed the warning threshold of about 5% of GDP.
Based on the above grounds and arguments, the Government submits to the National Assembly for consideration and comments on adjusting a number of key indicators as follows: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate reaches 8% or more. Average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate is about 4.5-5%. If necessary, allow the State budget deficit to be adjusted to about 4-4.5% of GDP to mobilize resources for development investment; public debt, government debt, and foreign debt may reach or exceed the warning threshold of about 5% of GDP.
Basically agree with the Government 's economic growth goals, requirements and scenarios
Chairman of the Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh said that in 2024, our country's socio-economic situation will continue to recover and develop positively, achieving many important and comprehensive results in all areas, achieving and exceeding all 15/15 main targets. In particular, GDP in 2024 is estimated to increase by 7.09%, among the leading groups in the world and the region.
The Economic Committee basically agrees with the targets, requirements, and economic growth scenarios for 2025 in the Government's Submission and Report. Submitting to the National Assembly the adjustment to increase the economic growth target for 2025 demonstrates the Government's determination and efforts in successfully implementing the socio-economic development goals for the 2021-2025 period, contributing to consolidating and creating a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth for a long enough period, bringing our country into an era of prosperous development.
Regarding the target of an average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate of about 4.5 - 5%, the Economic Committee believes that adjusting the CPI target is necessary to create space in operating fiscal and monetary policies, supporting economic growth. However, inflation is an important indicator, directly affecting macroeconomic stability as well as people's lives and business costs. Therefore, it is recommended that the Government have solutions to control inflation in line with the growth and macroeconomic stability goals.
Regarding the proposal to adjust the targets on deficit spending and public debt, the Economic Committee recommends that the Government use resources effectively, strictly implement the provisions of the law on state budget and the law on public debt management; resolutely manage to ensure deficit spending and public debt within the scope decided by the National Assembly in Resolution No. 23/2021/QH15 and Resolution No. 159/2024/QH15, and only adjust when all solutions have been implemented and public debt safety and debt repayment capacity are ensured, especially the target of the Government's debt repayment obligations compared to total budget revenue.
To successfully achieve the GDP growth target of 8% or more in 2025, it is necessary to continue to focus on implementing Conclusion No. 97-KL/TW dated October 5, 2024 of the Party Central Committee on socio-economic development in 2024 - 2025, which has been specifically institutionalized in Resolution No. 158/2024/QH15 of the National Assembly. In particular, it is necessary to resolutely and effectively implement Conclusion No. 123-KL/TW of the Central Committee and have appropriate management solutions depending on the actual situation.
At the same time, closely follow the growth target and Conclusion No. 123-KL/TW of the Central Committee to specifically determine the roadmap and responsibility for developing and submitting to the National Assembly laws and resolutions of the National Assembly, ensuring the legal corridor for achieving the growth target in 2025 and the following years. Closely monitor developments in the world economic and political situation, correctly assess the situation, and promptly respond to policies. Continue to strengthen endogenous capacity, determined to achieve growth targets but maintain the foundation for sustainable and long-term development, especially stabilizing the macro economy, major balances of the economy, ensuring social security, national defense and security. Have specific and effective solutions to ensure social security and national financial security in case of loosening fiscal policy, monetary policy and adjusting CPI, deficit, and public debt.
Implement the Party's policies correctly, ensure the effectiveness of streamlining and rearranging the organization and apparatus; do not interrupt work or affect people, production and business activities of enterprises and pay attention to the issue of increasing labor productivity and social security policies. Have substantive and effective mechanisms and policies to protect, encourage and reward cadres who dare to innovate, dare to think, dare to do, dare to take responsibility for the common good, not for personal gain.
Source: https://baotainguyenmoitruong.vn/tao-nen-tang-vung-chac-de-dat-muc-tieu-tang-truong-dat-8-trong-nam-2025-386542.html
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