Trump could lose more than half of voters in seven battleground states if convicted

Ông Trump có thể mất hơn nửa cử tri ở 7 bang chiến trường nếu bị kết án - 1 — Former US President Donald Trump (Photo: Getty/Bloomberg).

A new poll finds that 53% of voters in seven battleground states would be less likely to vote for Mr Trump in the presidential election if he were convicted. That number would rise to 55% if he were imprisoned.

So far, the four criminal indictments have helped solidify Mr. Trump’s position in the Republican primary race and have provided a fundraising boost. But polling on Jan. 31 showed that the legal battles will only help Mr. Trump politically so far.

The reluctance of voters to back Trump if he is convicted is one of the few negatives for the former president in the poll, which overall shows him gaining an increasing advantage over Biden if the two face off in November.

The poll shows Mr Trump leading Mr Biden by an average of 6 percentage points in seven battleground states that could decide the 2024 presidential election.

But while Republicans are backing Trump after four indictments, the poll suggests that a conviction and prison sentence could change voters’ attitudes. Specifically, 23% of Republicans in battleground states say they are less likely to support Trump if he is convicted.

A conviction could also upset the balance among voters who dislike both Biden and Trump. Seventy-nine percent of those voters said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if that happened.

The latest poll was conducted Jan. 16-22, after the Iowa caucuses and before the New Hampshire primary. It was also conducted before a judgment requiring Mr. Trump to pay $83.3 million in civil damages to author E. Jean Carroll.

The survey was conducted with voters in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada.

This year, Mr. Trump faces four separate criminal trials.

Two cases — one involving an attempt to overturn the 2020 election results and another involving alleged hush money payments to a porn star — are scheduled to go to trial in March.

The courts hearing the two cases could rule before the November presidential election. But if there is a delay, voters could go to the polls before a decision is made in either case.

It is unclear when the results will be available in the remaining two cases, which deal with Trump's mishandling of classified documents and allegations of interference in the 2020 Georgia election results.

Mr Trump is awaiting an appeals court ruling on whether he is immune from criminal prosecution for actions taken during his presidency.

If the answer is yes, the court would dismiss two cases stemming from his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Two other cases would not be affected because they involve actions he took before and after he became president.

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