On May 25, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev declared that the conflict in Ukraine will continue for a very long time, even decades, or recur after a ceasefire agreement can be reached.
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| Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev outlined three scenarios for the conflict in Ukraine. (Source: TASS) |
“This is a new reality, new living conditions. As long as such power exists in Kiev, there will be, let's say, three years of ceasefire, two years of conflict, and then everything will happen as before,” Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.
According to the former Russian President, Kiev will have no future if it continues its current state and the collapse of the Ukrainian state "is inevitable", and outlined three scenarios that could lead to this collapse.
In the first scenario , part of western Ukraine would fall under the control of and eventually be annexed by neighboring European Union (EU) countries.
The remaining “empty land” will become “a new Ukraine”, still trying to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and posing a threat to Moscow.
In that case, armed conflict would soon flare up again, potentially becoming permanent with the risk of rapidly escalating into a full-scale world war.
In the second scenario , Ukraine has a government in exile that de facto ceases to exist, with control of the entire territory divided between the EU and Russia.
In this case, the risk of a world war is not so high, but “terrorist activity” in the territories annexed by neighboring EU countries will persist.
However, Mr. Medvedev is more inclined towards the third scenario . Accordingly, the western territories of Ukraine voluntarily join the neighboring EU countries, while the territories in the east and some central regions exercise the “right to self-determination stipulated in Article 1 of the United Nations Charter”.
Ukraine has not yet commented on the above statements.
Meanwhile, on the same day, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland announced that Washington has been supporting the planning of Ukraine's counter-offensive campaign for the past 4-5 months and has now begun discussions with Kiev about the long-term future of the Eastern European country.
According to the US diplomatic official, the counter-offensive campaign will “likely begin and occur simultaneously” with events such as the NATO Summit in Lithuania, scheduled to be held on July 11.
In addition, the US is planning to strengthen Ukraine's future army, while "painting a rosy picture" of the future in which Kiev is "the engine of Europe's revival" and "sets an example of democracy... for the whole world."
Regarding military aid to Kiev, on the same day, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin revealed that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), including 31 NATO members and a number of "non-aligned" countries, has pledged to provide nearly 65 billion USD to support the Eastern European country.
Mr. Austin declared that Washington was “committed to standing with Ukraine for the long term,” and affirmed that Ukraine’s supporters were “more united than ever.”
Regarding fighter jets, according to the head of the Pentagon, Washington hopes that training of Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 aircraft will begin in the next few weeks.
In addition to plans to provide modern fighter jets to Kiev, the US is now focusing on transferring to Ukraine “additional air defense systems and ammunition.”
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