Stock market perspective in the first week of June: Should wait for the signal to surpass the peak
Agriseco Research recommends that with new disbursements, priority should be given to waiting for signals to surpass the market's peak or disbursements with the VN30 group, leading stocks in the industry, with the expectation of catching the leading group when the market surpasses the mid-term peak.
After a week of trading under adjustment pressure at the strong resistance zone around 1,285 points, VN-Index this week continued to trade within a narrow range, recovered well at the 1,250 point zone and was under adjustment pressure at the resistance zone of 1,285 points.
The week ended at 1,261.72 points, down slightly by 0.02% from the previous week. Thus, the market recovered in May and increased by 4.32% after being under strong correction pressure in April 2024.
During the week, liquidity on HoSE reached VND109,520 billion, down sharply by 20.8% compared to the previous week. Many codes/code groups continued to recover, demand increased well at the support zone of 1,250 points, and improved well in the group of mid-cap and small-cap codes.
Foreign investors continued the strong net selling trend with a rather unusual value this week of up to VND 6,085.48 billion on HOSE, focusing on large-cap stocks in VN30, and net buying on HNX with a value of VND 33.36 billion.
During the week, there were outstanding stock groups such as retail, PET (+8.44%), MCH (+6.00%), FRT (+5.90%), MWG (+5.12%)... technology recovered well with CTR (+3.95%), FPT (+2.05%), CMG (+2.01%)...
The brightest spot was textile stocks, which all competed to increase sharply in the last session of the week, ending the week very positively with GIL (+7.15%), M10 (+6.40%), TNG (+5.14%), VGT (+3.90%)...
Recent data from the textile and garment industry has shown signs of recovery, which has supported the growth momentum of businesses in the industry. In the first five months of 2024, the industry's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year to $15.7 billion, while production also increased by 5.4%. In April and May 2024, the industry's employment index turned positive for the first time after 16 consecutive months of decline.
In general, VN-Index is still moving sideways and the fluctuation range continues to be in the range of 1250 - 1300 points. Accordingly, positions that have not violated the short-term trend can still be maintained. As for buying positions, priority will still be given to watching for fluctuations and adjusting to optimize stock accumulation positions, especially paying attention to stocks with good growth momentum and much room left.
Agriseco Research experts assessed that on the technical chart, VN-Index closed right at the 20-day average after struggling around the mid-term peak. The RSI indicator showed a sideways movement in the neutral zone. In addition, the Bollinger Bands are also gradually narrowing the amplitude, signaling that the market will soon return with stronger and more decisive fluctuations to determine the short-term trend.
Similar to last week, there is a chance for VN-Index to soon rebound and confirm a successful re-accumulation pattern, especially when bottom-fishing demand always participates at the key moment to help the index maintain the trend.
However, the support demand at short-term averages is often quite limited. Agriseco Research believes that VN-Index needs to soon return to the 1,280 (+-5) point zone to open a medium-term uptrend.
On the contrary, in a negative scenario when VN-Index fails to maintain MA20 corresponding to the 1,260 point mark since the beginning of the week, it is likely that the market will continuously break the previously considered reliable support zones due to the appearance of a double-top distribution pattern.
Agriseco Research recommends that investors manage risks by reducing the proportion of short-term trading positions in stocks that have not yet surpassed the peak at the beginning of the year. Regarding new disbursements, priority should be given to waiting for a signal to surpass the peak from the market or disbursing with the VN30 group, leading stocks in the industry with the expectation of catching the leading group when the market surpasses the mid-term peak.
Recommended portfolio for June 2024 includes 6 stocks: DRI, GDA, HPG, MBB, PVT and VHM.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-dau-thang-6-nen-cho-doi-tin-hieu-vuot-dinh-d216654.html
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