Meeting at the Shangri-La Dialogue, US and Chinese officials failed to resolve their differences and even saw relations decline further.
The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last weekend was seen as an opportunity for countries, especially the US and China, to discuss each other’s security concerns and find ways to improve relations, as tensions have been rising steadily over the past year. What happened, however, was a series of critical statements between US and Chinese defense leaders, making the confrontation even more tense.
In the run-up to the Shangri-La Dialogue, flashpoints have flared across the region. In late May, a Chinese fighter jet was accused of “unnecessarily aggressive behavior” when it buzzed and intercepted a US reconnaissance aircraft operating over the South China Sea. Over the weekend, as US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called on Beijing to resume defense dialogue with Washington, a Chinese warship crossed the Taiwan Strait, nearly colliding with a US destroyer.
Defense Secretary Austin and his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu did not hold any private meetings on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, beyond a handshake and a brief greeting before dinner on June 2. Tensions between the two countries overshadowed the discussions.
“A friendly handshake at dinner is no substitute for real commitment,” Mr. Austin admitted on June 3.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin shakes hands and briefly talks with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu at the opening ceremony of the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on the evening of June 2. Video: Twitter/Yaroslav Trofimov
In a speech on the evening of June 2, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he was concerned that a "collapse" in the US-China dialogue could trigger a chain reaction that would have "terrible consequences for the world." General Yoshihide Yoshida, chief of staff of Japan's Self-Defense Forces, warned that the international community was at a "turning point" with the specter of war looming over Asia. The next day, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto mentioned the "risk of an impending disaster."
In separate speeches, both Mr Austin and Mr Lee stressed their desire to avoid conflict and promote stability. However, they also sent messages of caution to each other.
“We do not seek conflict or confrontation, but we will not back down in the face of bullying or coercion,” said Lloyd Austin, who is also a senior fellow at the US Department of State. Meanwhile, Lee complained about the “hegemonic” ambitions of a major power he did not name.
The US defence secretary said Washington was not trying to create a new NATO in Asia through deepening partnerships with a handful of regional powers. China's defence minister warned that efforts to establish NATO-like alliances would push Asia into a "spiral of dispute and conflict".
According to Ishaan Tharoor, a foreign affairs commentator for the Washington Post, most delegates attending the Shangri-La Dialogue responded to Mr. Austin's statements, as he seemed to want to cool down tensions at this time.
During the dialogue session on the morning of June 3, Mr. Austin emphasized that the US does not want to change the status quo around Taiwan, an island that Beijing considers part of its territory, and said that the US believes conflict in the region is "not imminent or inevitable".
He also called on Beijing to engage in more substantive dialogue with Washington. “The more we communicate, the more we can avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to crisis and conflict,” he said.
Bec Shrimpton, director of defence and national security strategy at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said the US defence secretary had delivered a “strong speech with direct and indirect messages to China”. Shrimpton said Austin had made it clear that “the US is ready to pick up the phone and talk”, but also reminded Beijing that it had enough influence and power to compete in any area China chose.
Mr. Lee took the stage the next day, offering a blunt rebuttal to Mr. Austin’s message. After Mr. Austin mentioned America’s “protection of the international order,” Mr. Lee said that “the so-called rules-based international order never tells you what the rules are and who created them.”
Observers say that according to Mr. Li, China is the country that protects regional norms and stability, while the US is the one that intervenes.
Referring to Taiwan, China's defense minister criticized the island's government for inciting "separatist activities" and declared that Taiwan would definitely "return to the mainland." Commenting on the near-collision incident in the Taiwan Strait, Mr. Li said that the passage of US and allied naval vessels through the strategic waterway was not "innocent passage" and was an act of causing tension.
"What's the benefit of going there? We Chinese often say 'don't poke your nose into other people's business'," Mr. Li said.
The Chinese defense minister’s harsh tone has drawn backlash. Jay Tristan Tarriela, deputy commander of the Philippine Coast Guard, criticized Li’s message, citing China’s recent actions in the South China Sea.
"Mr Lee talked about mutual respect, restraint and resisting hegemony. It was a lot more mixed than the kaya toast I had for breakfast yesterday," said Collin Koh, a research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, referring to the island nation's popular coconut milk, pandan and custard dish.
"I have attended the Shangri-La Dialogue for more than a decade and have seen successive Chinese defense ministers become increasingly assertive, but Mr. Li's message was the toughest yet. We often hear about China's charm offensive, but this speech was not charming," said Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute in Australia.
Ankit Panda, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the implication of Mr Lee's speech was that China believes "the US is not a fundamental power in Asia and should therefore abandon its presence in the region". He said the Shangri-La standoff "could become the new normal as US-China relations sink to a new low".
“Both countries will use forums like this to talk about competitive issues and share their vision for regional security,” he said.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (left) and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu. Photo: AP
Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense, said that the lack of dialogue between the US and China is a barrier preventing the two sides from establishing a crisis management mechanism.
He cited that when a US drone collided with a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea in March, Mr. Austin spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, shortly afterward. However, when the US shot down a Chinese balloon off the coast of South Carolina in early February, China declined Mr. Austin’s request for a phone call.
"We have long had a channel of communication between the Russian and American leaders at the military and civilian levels. This communication mechanism was established decades ago. But we do not have that with China," he said.
US President Joe Biden recently shared the idea of an “early thaw” in US-China relations. But that scenario is unlikely to happen in the near future because China believes the terms of the dialogue are unfavorable to them, according to Ivy Kwek, a researcher at the Global Crisis Group.
Ms. Kwek added that this is a concern for the region because the vast majority of Asian countries see strategic competition between the US and China as potentially destabilizing.
"No one in Asia wants to live in the shadow of the giants. They all want to enjoy the sunshine," said expert Fullilove.
Thanh Tam (According to Washington Post, Nikkei Asia )
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