Why Ukraine is unlikely to be happy with the announcement of shooting down the Kinzhal

Claiming to have shot down a Kinzhal missile with a Patriot system does not mean that Ukraine has found a way to counter this weapon and can celebrate.

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oeshchuk said on May 5 that his country's air defense system had shot down a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile over Kiev the day before. Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder confirmed on May 9 that "Ukraine shot down a Russian missile using the Patriot defense system" when asked to comment on the information.

However, Ukrainian officials remained cautious after the announcement. "Ukraine has very few weapons capable of intercepting the Kh-47 Kinzhal missile and not enough equipment to protect large cities. The Patriot complex has never dealt with such a target. Therefore, it is too early to celebrate," said Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat.

Western experts also said that even if Ukraine intercepted the Kinzhal missile, this could be an isolated case and Kiev could not be assured of the capacity of its air defense network.

Russian MiG-31K fighter launches Kinzhal missile during testing in 2018. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense

"The Patriot PAC-3 system may have shot down the Kinzhal missile, but statistically speaking, a successful interception does not mean anything. It also does not mean that Ukraine's air defense network is capable of dealing with massive attacks by Russian cruise and ballistic missiles," commented expert Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute for Strategic Studies in the US.

Meanwhile, TASS , Russia's state news agency, on May 11 quoted an unnamed official in the country's Defense Ministry expressing skepticism about Ukraine's claim that it intercepted the Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

"The Kinzhal's maneuverability in the terminal phase and near-vertical flight path as it approaches its target make it capable of penetrating current missile defense systems," the official said.

According to Russian officials, the announcements of missile shootdowns made by the Ukrainian military are "attempts to justify" the high rate of consumption of anti-aircraft ammunition and promote the effectiveness of the systems in service.

An anonymous former Indian air force officer with knowledge of Patriot said that the US air defense system is not an impenetrable shield.

"It is very difficult to determine the direction and location of the enemy firing an aircraft-launched missile like the Kinzhal, which will make interception efforts difficult. Kinzhal missiles can only be shot down during their flight to their destination, when they are very close to the target and can cause collateral damage on the ground," the person said.

Retired General Mark Hertling, former commander of the US Army in Europe, warned that the Ukrainian military would have to use the Patriot system sparingly, as the number of Patriot systems in service is too small and there are not many spare rounds. That also leads to the risk of Ukraine's air defense network being penetrated when Russia launches a large number of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) towards the target.

"This system can intercept many types of targets, but it would be a waste to use a $3-5 million missile to intercept UAVs and missiles that cost tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The best thing is that it relieves pressure on short- and medium-range systems, allowing them to deal with enemy UAVs and missiles," General Hertling commented.

Hypersonic missiles are weapons that travel at least five times faster than the speed of sound, equivalent to more than 6,200 km/h. Thanks to their complex flight trajectory and very high speed, hypersonic weapons have higher lethality and are almost impossible to intercept with current defense shields.

The Kinzhal hypersonic missile is one of six super weapons announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018.

Russia first used the Kinzhal missile in March 2022, when it attacked a large weapons depot in the Ivano-Frankivsk region of western Ukraine. US President Joe Biden later said the Kinzhal was "a high-impact weapon that doesn't make much difference, except that it's virtually impossible to intercept."

Sergey Chemezov, CEO of Russian defense corporation Rostec, said on May 7 that the number of Kinzhal missiles being produced is increasing significantly. "The production line has been completed for a long time, but initially it did not require the number of missiles required now. We are increasing the production rate," he said.

Vu Anh (According to Eurasia Times )

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