Will the downtrend continue?

Pepper prices are forecasted to fall sharply on July 4, 2024. The reason for the increase and decrease in pepper prices is believed to be because the pepper price is too high, causing a number of businesses exporting this product to temporarily stop buying. This is a move to rebalance the pepper market that is being "speculated".

In the short term, pepper prices may have some downward adjustments, but they will not be too deep, and it is unlikely that they will return to the low prices as before. Currently, due to limited forecast reserves and difficulties in businesses, the amount of pepper supplied to the market is not much. Transportation costs continue to increase rapidly and are forecast to remain high until 2025.

Pepper price forecast for July 4, 2024: Will the downward trend continue?

Rising raw material prices, coupled with longer than usual shipping times, have affected the cash flows of most manufacturers and exporters. Liquidity in the domestic market has been very low at times.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association has just announced that recently, the price information on the IPC website about Vietnamese pepper prices is significantly different from the information provided by the Association, and at times there are errors.

To avoid economic losses, the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association recommends that farmers, agents, export companies, and foreign customers consult other sources to ensure objectivity and reliability when making buying/selling decisions.

Regarding the harvest situation in Brazil, according to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, by the end of May, the country had exported 31,846 tons, down 8% compared to the same period. It is expected to continue harvesting in August in the Espirito Santos region and November in the Para region. It is estimated that the whole country will harvest about 60 thousand more tons.

According to some farmers in the Espirito Santos region, the harvest in 2024 may be 25-30% lower due to the hot weather causing most of the first batch of cotton to fall off and the fruit set ratio of the second and third batches of cotton to be quite low, so it is expected to only reach about 70% compared to last year. Overall, Brazil in 2024 may decrease by 20-25% compared to 2023.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association quoted experts as saying that signs of supply shortage compared to demand will continue to be recorded in the coming time until the crop season.

There are still about 2 months left before Brazil's 2024 pepper crop hits the market. Until then, supply will still depend on Vietnamese businesses. This continues to be an advantage for Vietnamese pepper.

Meanwhile, in the domestic market, pepper prices today, July 3, 2024, in the Southeast region decreased from 2,000 - 5,000 VND/kg in some localities, trading around 154,000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the provinces of Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Binh Phuoc is 155,000 VND/kg.

Dak Lak pepper price is purchased at 154,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 3,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday's price. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) is currently at 154,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 2,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Dak Nong pepper price today is recorded at 152,000 VND/kg, a decrease of 5,000 VND/kg.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today decreased by VND 2,000/kg. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it decreased by VND 2,000 to VND 155,000/kg; in Binh Phuoc, it decreased by VND 2,000/kg, pepper prices were at VND 155,000/kg.

In the world market, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) at 7,110 USD/ton, down 0.18%; the price of Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 at 7,300 USD/ton; the price of Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA at 7,500 USD/ton.

Muntok white pepper price is 9,053 USD/ton, down 0.17%; Malaysian ASTA white pepper price is at 8,800 USD/ton.

Vietnamese black pepper price is traded at 6,400 USD/ton for 500 g/l, down 1.53%; 550 g/l is at 6,900 USD/ton, down 1.42%; white pepper price is at 9,500 USD/ton.

Domestic pepper price on July 3 , 2024

Province, city	Unit	Trader purchase price	Increase/decrease compared to yesterday
Chu Se (Gia Lai)	VND/kg	154,000	-2,000
­­ Dak Lak	VND/kg	154,000	-3,000
Dak Nong	VND/kg	152,000	-5,000
Binh Phuoc	VND/kg	155,000	-2,000
Ba Ria - Vung Tau	VND/kg	155,000	-2,000

According to estimates from the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, in the first 5 months of this year, Vietnam exported more than 114,400 tons of pepper of all kinds, and it is estimated that the export output in June 2024 will be no less than 25,000 tons. Thus, there are still 7-8 months left until the new harvest (expected after Tet from February 2025) while supply from people and agents is low.

PTEXIM Corp believes that the situation of "dripping" goods entering the market will continue to support pepper prices in the coming time. Currently, the price of black pepper at warehouses for immediate delivery has established a new floor price compared to before.

Many pepper farmers across the country have only sold about 50% - 70% of their current output and have no intention of continuing to sell more due to expectations that domestic pepper prices will continue to increase.

According to PTEXIM Corp, many pepper importers and processors previously expected that raw material supplies would be supplemented from Brazil and Indonesia, but in reality, Brazil and Indonesia are currently offering almost no supplies due to crop failures and slow harvests due to harsh weather. In particular, Espirito Santom state - Brazil's main pepper producing region - is experiencing widespread crop failures. This has left many businesses without raw materials for production activities.

* Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on time and location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-472024-lieu-da-giam-con-dien-ra-329867.html