Optimistic about Vietnam's prospects in 2024

Vietnam is very lucky to be located in an area identified as the new geopolitical and geo-economic center of the world.

Kinh tế Việt Nam đang sở hữu nền tảng vững chắc và động lực chiến lược để tiếp tục tăng trưởng trong năm 2024. Ảnh minh họa. (Nguồn: Vietnam Insisder)

Vietnam's economy has a solid foundation and strategic momentum to continue growing in 2024. Illustrative photo. (Source: Vietnam Insider)

Known to the world as the Indo-Pacific, this region has become the center of the world because it has the largest population, occupies nearly half of the surface area of the continents, has the three largest economies; has the four largest democracies; has five nuclear powers; accounts for 60% of global GDP; has the seven strongest armies; accounts for 80% of global reserves of lithium and nickel, which are important strategic minerals for new economic sectors; has the nine largest seaports in the world, and has 10 of the 14 smallest countries in the world.

Because of its importance, more than 20 countries, including major powers, “middle powers” and important international organizations (including the EU and ASEAN), have issued their own strategies to prioritize promoting relations with this region. In the coming year, many new countries will join the trend of “pivoting” to the region.

Located at the junction of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, Southeast Asia and ASEAN are a priority pillar that no country wants to ignore. Many countries are issuing their own strategies to promote relations with ASEAN, such as India, Australia, and South Korea.

The attraction of ASEAN is not only because ASEAN is the seventh largest economy in the world located in a very central geographical position but also because of the appropriate policies that this organization pursues. ASEAN advocates creating a dynamic economic development center, an open, balanced regional structure, relations with all parties, not targeting anyone, not excluding anyone, promoting multilateralism. This policy is suitable for all countries near and far.

ASEAN's rising "central role" in the new world situation is an important part of helping to strengthen Vietnam's prestige and position in the international arena in the coming year.

Bright spot in ASEAN bright spot

In the central region of Southeast Asia, Vietnam is a bright spot because it is recognized by the world as a stable country with high economic growth. In 2023, Vietnam is the second fastest growing country in ASEAN (after the Philippines), although it faces more difficulties than in 2022. At 5.1%, Vietnam's GDP growth is higher than the average in Asia (about 4.7%) and much higher than the average growth in the world (2.7-2.9%).

With the largest number of signed free trade agreements in Southeast Asia, creating smooth connections with all major and important economic and political centers, Vietnam is a natural partner chosen by many countries when looking to this region. According to the General Statistics Office, total FDI capital in Vietnam in 2023 reached more than 36.6 billion USD, an increase of 32.1% compared to 2022. In the trend of diversifying supply chains and spreading risks of many countries and large corporations, Vietnam continues to be a highly interested address.

More importantly, the world sees Vietnam as a potential country that is strongly transforming in the right direction. The world today knows Vietnam as a country with a rapidly developing network of international standard highways; a country leading the region in developing renewable energy; a society that promotes innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship, with the second highest number of smartphones per capita in Southeast Asia (after Thailand).

The world also knows Vietnam as the country with the second largest rare earth reserves in the world, Vietnam's nickel has few impurities and is close to a "clean" power source, a potential source of high-quality raw materials because it is suitable for the most demanding electric vehicle markets such as the US and Europe. When population becomes an important resource, high-quality, dynamic, creative labor is a strategic asset, Vietnam becomes a highly competitive location for emerging fields such as semiconductors, high-tech industry, artificial intelligence, etc.

Optimistic signals about Vietnam's prospects come from many prestigious forecasting organizations in the world. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Vietnam's growth will increase to 5.8% in 2024. Standard Chartered Bank and the Asian Development Bank are more optimistic when forecasting Vietnam's growth in 2024 at 6%. Optimism about Vietnam's development prospects is reflected in new business registrations in 2023. According to the General Statistics Office, the number of newly registered businesses in 2023 hit a record high for the first time, nearly 160,000 businesses, up 7.2% compared to 2022.

Hotspots will be controlled with efforts.

All the above-mentioned development potentials and strengths will become meaningless if we do not have a peaceful and stable environment and cannot realize those great potentials.

In the context of the world entering a turning point to a new situation, suspicion, competition and confrontation are increasing in many regions, people cannot help but worry whether the Asian region can maintain peace, stability and avoid unwanted conflicts?

Such concerns are not unfounded, as in previous years, the region has witnessed many hot spots likened to “powder kegs” in the region such as the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, border tensions between India and China, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. According to a report by the US Department of Defense, in 2022-2023, the US and China had 300 dangerous encounters at sea and in the air. What a shocking number!

Just entering 2024, inter-Korean relations have had extremely worrying developments when North Korea announced its abandonment of the goal of unification with South Korea, considering South Korea a hostile country, continuously firing rockets into the border buffer zone and testing missiles with hypersonic warheads. This year, important elections will take place in the US, India, South Korea, Indonesia; the generational leadership transition in Singapore will add many unexpected and unpredictable factors to the region.

However, there is still reason to be optimistic, believing that the regional situation will be controlled, peace and stability will remain the main trend. The warming of US-China relations after the two leaders met on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in late 2023 proves that both the US and China want to control competition and not create more crises.

Neither country wants to see another flashpoint erupt into conflict in the region, especially when both major powers need to focus their minds and energies on internal affairs. Tensions across the Taiwan Strait did not flare up after the Democratic Progressive Party candidate became the new leader of the island. Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are expected to cool down after a bilateral meeting between the two foreign ministries in Shanghai on January 18.

Open foreign affairs give wings to the country

In 2023, Vietnam was recognized by some world observers as an "active power" in the international arena, because it did not passively respond to the situation but proactively contributed to shaping the situation in accordance with the legitimate interests of the nation.

In a world where the common keywords are rift, fracture, suspicion, and separation, Vietnam has proactively strengthened trust with major and strategic partners; fostered solidarity and friendship with neighboring countries; renewed, deepened, and supplemented connections with important and traditional partners; and continuously sought opportunities and explored new and potential markets.

Vietnam actively contributes its voice at multilateral forums; joins hands with the international community to find solutions to global issues, from urgent issues such as earthquakes and natural disasters to long-term issues such as climate change and global food security.

Many commentators have commented that Vietnam is a typical example of intelligent, skillful and appropriate behavior in today's world context, a living proof of the effectiveness of the diplomatic school imbued with the identity of "Vietnamese bamboo".

With an open foreign policy, with the soul, character and spirit of the Vietnamese people, we can completely believe that Vietnam will continue to courageously overcome all difficulties and fluctuations in the world, with courage and confidence to bring many new great successes in 2024!

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