For three consecutive years, the fertility rate in Vietnam has continuously decreased rapidly: from 2.11 children/woman (2021), to 2.01 (2022), 1.96 (2023), and 1.91 (2024).
2024 is considered by many to be a “good year” for giving birth according to folk beliefs, but it has not been enough to increase the birth rate in Vietnam, even reaching a record low of 1.91 children/woman – the lowest level in history.
Alarming situation
According to Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong announced at the conference summarizing population work in 2024 held on December 27, in three consecutive years, the birth rate in Vietnam has continuously decreased rapidly: from 2.11 children/woman (2021), to 2.01 (2022), 1.96 (2023), and 1.91 (2024). In particular, women in developed urban areas only give birth to an average of 1.67 children - much lower than the replacement rate of 2.1.
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| 2024 is considered by many to be a "good year" for giving birth according to folk beliefs, but it has not been enough to increase the birth rate in Vietnam. - Illustration photo: Chinhphu.vn |
This trend is not only a statistical issue but also reflects the risk of population growth slowing down after 2054, leading to many socio-economic consequences. In particular, in the period 2064-2069, Vietnam's population is forecast to decrease by an average of 200,000 people per year. This is a major challenge in maintaining human resources and national development.
Declining fertility is a phenomenon not only in Vietnam but also in many developed and developing countries, but the factors affecting Vietnam are specific. The increasing cost of living, especially in large cities, puts significant financial pressure on families. Raising children in modern society requires large expenses, accounting for up to 40% of household income. Meanwhile, health and education services in many areas still do not meet the demand, typically the lack of public kindergartens near the place of residence makes it difficult for parents to take care of young children. At the same time, housing prices in large cities continue to escalate. Although the Government has proposed a plan to build one million social housing units by 2030, implementation still faces many challenges.
In addition, changes in social awareness and the trend towards individualization are also important factors. The high divorce rate, especially in Ho Chi Minh City – where one in every 2.7 married couples gets divorced – creates a sense of insecurity about marriage and makes many people reluctant to get married or have children. Young people today often prioritize their careers and personal freedom, believing that if they cannot ensure a good life for their children, they should not have children. This concept is becoming more and more popular as Vietnam integrates deeply with the West, where individual values are highly valued.
What is the solution?
To overcome this situation, comprehensive solutions are needed from the Government, businesses and society. The Government needs to develop policies to support families raising children, including strengthening the public preschool system, reducing tuition and medical costs for children, and implementing financial support packages for families with young children. Housing policies also need to be adjusted to increase long-term social housing rentals instead of sales, to create conditions for young families to stabilize their lives.
In addition, changing social awareness is an urgent task. Media campaigns need to emphasize the value of family and social responsibility in maintaining the national population, thereby changing negative views on marriage and childbearing. Enterprises should also support female workers through policies that help them balance work and family, such as reducing working hours, increasing maternity leave, and building kindergartens at the workplace.
On the positive side, despite the current difficulties, the declining birth rate is also an opportunity for Vietnam to transform. With the current young population, if the Government has timely support policies, Vietnam can stabilize the birth rate and take advantage of its labor resources during the transition period. More importantly, it is necessary to build a social environment where couples feel supported and accompanied in their journey to parenthood.
Above all, it is important to emphasize that life is not just a number in reports, but also the story of each family and individual. Population policies need to build a society where traditional values are preserved, while creating conditions for modern young people to confidently step into the role of parents.
According to Deputy Minister of Health Lien Huong, in order to overcome difficulties and meet population and development needs in the coming time, the Draft Population Law drafted by the Ministry of Health proposes contents to ensure replacement fertility, related to regulations on the number of children per family or handling violations of population policy... In addition, the draft law also mentions the issue of supporting workers who give birth and have young children, so that families, especially in low birth rate areas, "are not afraid of giving birth". According to the direction of the Ministry of Health, the Department of Population (Ministry of Health) is required to complete the draft law to submit to the Government in December, and then submit it to the National Assembly at the 10th session (2025). According to the Population Department, in order to firmly ensure the country's replacement fertility level, one of the tasks and solutions proposed is to amend the regulations on disciplinary action, not handling cases of giving birth to 3 children or more, in parallel with promoting and having policies to encourage couples and individuals to have 2 children. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/muc-sinh-giam-sau-he-luy-va-loi-giai-tu-chinh-sach-367190.html
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