From the historical peak of 2,685 USD/ounce set on September 26, the gold price fell to nearly 2,600 USD/ounce on October 9, then increased again in the last session of the week and the beginning of the new week.

At the beginning of the session on October 14, on the New York market (October 14 evening, Vietnam time), the world gold price was at 2,650 USD/ounce (equivalent to about 80.7 million VND/tael).

In the past 2-3 weeks, profit-taking pressure on gold has been quite large. This is considered a factor preventing gold from increasing.

Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars and gold rings fluctuated little according to the rules and transactions were irregular. SJC gold bars were at a high level of 83-85 million VND/tael (buy-sell) in the past week, while the price of gold rings continued to climb.

In the session of October 14, the price of gold rings jumped to a new record high. Each tael of Doji brand gold increased by 350,000 VND to 82.95 million VND/tael (buy) and 83.85 million VND/tael (sell).

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Buying and selling SJC gold bars is difficult. Photo: Nam Khanh

Although the gold price is at a historic high, trading is quiet. Buying and selling SJC gold bars is difficult. The State Bank will continue to implement measures to control the difference between domestic and international gold prices; at the same time, coordinate with relevant ministries and branches to inspect and examine the gold market, the activities of gold trading enterprises, stores, agents distributing and buying and selling gold bars.

Currently, the price difference between SJC gold bars and the world price is only about 4 million VND/tael, compared to the world price of 18-19 million VND/tael higher at the beginning of the year.

USD not weakening as fast as expected

Globally, gold prices have been pressured by the caution of professional investors on Wall Street as well as the decline in optimism of retail investors on Main Street in the US, as gold has increased by nearly 27% since the beginning of the year, according to a Kitco survey.

A surprise 2% rise in the US dollar in the first two weeks of October has curbed gold’s gains. In the medium and long term, the US dollar is seen as still in a downtrend following the US Federal Reserve’s signal of gradually reducing interest rates until 2026. Gold is also considered to be in an uptrend.

Still, a relatively strong US economy, a possible slowdown in US interest rate cuts and a decline in many other major currencies around the world have supported the USD.

Recently, many central banks, including those in Europe, China, India, etc., have accelerated the pace of monetary easing, in many places even faster than the US.

Money flows to the US dollar and cryptocurrencies (including Bitcoin) instead of gold when gold prices are climbing and US stocks are continuously setting records. In addition, money flows are lurking to find opportunities in strong recoveries of the Chinese stock market.

Many other major economies, including China, are struggling. Beijing’s stimulus package to shore up its economy has also helped push up the dollar, which has helped to counter gold’s rise despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

However, it seems that there is currently no truly attractive investment channel. Money can move back and forth between popular investment channels, including gold, US stocks, Chinese stocks, USD, Bitcoin...

Investors are awaiting the Fed’s decision at its November meeting as well as the race for the White House between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris on November 5. The new owner of the White House is expected to increase the money injection to support economic growth.

If Mr Trump wins, the dollar could fall faster because the former US president favors both a weak dollar and political control over the Fed.

However, the possibility of a sharp decline in the USD (thereby causing a sharp increase in gold prices) is considered low, not only because of the strength of the US economy but also because of Washington's goal of maintaining soft power. Mr. Trump previously said that he would impose a 100% tax on goods from countries that abandon the USD if he were elected US president.

Gold prices plummet, a turning point is inevitable? World gold prices have plummeted and may mark a turning point in the context of many changes in the world. The US dollar has just started a downward trend but other factors supporting gold are no longer much.