The prestigious British broker Marex Spectron forecasts global coffee production in the current coffee year to reach 170.7 million bags, while consumption is estimated at 170.5 million bags. Production will increase to 172 million bags in 2025-26, mainly due to an expected recovery in Vietnam.
Coffee price today 3/19/2025
World coffee prices adjusted slightly on both the London and New York exchanges, closing the trading session unchanged from the previous session. The Real rose to a four-and-a-half month high against the USD and rising robusta inventories were the main factors affecting the market.
Domestic coffee prices today, March 19, are trading in the range of 132,900 - 134,400 VND/kg. Vietnam's harvest is coming to an end, and it is expected that the 2024/25 coffee output will decrease by 5% compared to the previous crop to 27 million bags (equivalent to about 1.6 million tons), due to the impact of climate change and the shrinking planting area. Of which, the export volume is estimated at about 1.4 million tons and the rest is used for domestic consumption.
Traders said the main focus of the market remains on the outlook for this year’s crop in Brazil and that rains in some areas could improve conditions. In addition, the Brazilian real rose to a 4-1/2-month high against the dollar on March 18, reducing export sales for Brazilian coffee producers.
Robusta coffee prices gave up early gains and fell, as supplies increased after ICE-monitored robusta inventories rose to a one-week high of 4,320 lots on March 17.
According to experts, price volatility is a common feature of the coffee market, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand. The imbalance is exacerbated by the inherent economics and structure of the coffee market.
In a new report on global coffee trends, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said that in December 2024, the price of Arabica coffee - a high-quality coffee preferred for the production of roasted and ground coffee - increased by 58% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the price of Robusta coffee, mainly used for instant and blended coffee, increased by 70% in real terms.
“High coffee prices will create incentives for greater investment in technology, research and development in the coffee sector, which relies heavily on smallholder farmers, to increase its resilience to climate change,” FAO said.
He added that climate change remains a long-term challenge for global coffee production and reaffirmed FAO's commitment to working with producing countries to help farmers adopt climate-resilient techniques.
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on March 18, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 slightly adjusted down 5 USD, trading at 5,469 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 increased 1 USD, trading at 5,452 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased slightly, with the May 2025 delivery period up 0.4 cents, trading at 383.8 cents/lb. The July 2025 delivery period increased 0.6 cents, trading at 377.35 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.
Domestic coffee prices on March 18 increased by 1,000 - 1,700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
In the FAO report, it warned that global coffee prices could continue to rise further in 2025 if production continues to decline significantly in major coffee growing regions around the world.
Global coffee prices have surged by 38.8% in 2024, hitting multi-year highs, largely due to adverse weather conditions affecting major coffee-producing countries.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) of Vietnam has set out many orientations to develop sustainable coffee exports and increase product value.
One of the important strategies is to build a standard raw material area. Specifically, the Ministry is implementing a project to build a coffee raw material area in the Central Highlands with an area of 19,700 hectares, including the provinces of Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Kon Tum and Dak Nong. The goal is to form a high-quality coffee production area, applying advanced technology and sustainable linkages between cooperatives and processing and exporting enterprises.
In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has proposed a conditional coffee export regulation, aiming to select large enterprises that invest deeply in processing. This encourages the coffee industry to focus on added value, instead of just exporting raw coffee. However, there are also concerns that this regulation may affect small enterprises and that appropriate support is needed.
In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is coordinating with relevant ministries and sectors to develop Vietnamese coffee culture. One of the most notable ideas is the establishment of a "coffee ceremony" similar to tea ceremony or wine ceremony, in order to build a brand and enhance the value of Vietnamese coffee in the international arena.
The above orientations demonstrate the efforts of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in innovating and enhancing the export value of Vietnamese coffee, towards sustainable development and international integration.
Vietnam is the world's second largest coffee exporter, after Brazil, and the world's largest exporter of robusta coffee, but most of it is exported in raw form, with low added value. In addition, developing a high-quality coffee industry in a sustainable manner is also a common problem for businesses and managers.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1932025-gia-ca-phe-toan-cau-con-tang-hon-nua-cung-cau-mat-can-bang-dinh-huong-phat-trien-cay-ca-phe-cua-viet-nam-308072.html
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