Coffee prices continue to fall sharply?

Coffee prices on June 12, 2024 in the domestic market are forecast to continue to decline sharply. Coffee prices are under pressure due to the faster progress of Brazil's coffee harvest, which promises to improve the coffee supply that has been under tension for a long time, especially for Robusta.

The weakness of the Brazilian real during the session was another negative impact on coffee prices as the real on Monday fell to a 17-month low against the dollar, trading around 5.36 reals to $1.

The intraday swing in Arabica coffee prices was seen as supported by news of a lack of rain in Brazil. The meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s Minas Gerais region had no rain over the past week.

Domestic coffee prices today have slowed down their increase to between 123,000 - 124,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 124,100 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 124,200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 124,000 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 123,900 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 124,000 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 124,200 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 123,000 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today (June 11) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 124,000 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 123,900 VND/kg.

Along with the decline in domestic coffee prices, today's online coffee prices of three exchanges in London, New York and Brazil increased and decreased in opposite directions.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at 4,275 USD/ton, down 150 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 4,128 USD/ton, down 166 USD; the delivery term for November 2024 was 3,978 USD/ton, down 159 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,820 USD/ton, down 155 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 11, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 219.75-221.10 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 221.10 cents/lb; down 0.30 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The September 2024 delivery period is 221.95 cents/lb, down 0.05 cents/lb; the December 2024 delivery period is 220.75 cents/lb, down 0.15 cents/lb and the March 2025 delivery period is 219.75 cents/lb, down 0 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee at 20:30 on June 11, 2024 decreased in all terms, ranging from 266.55 - 277.35 USD/ton.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 277.35 USD, down 4.50 USD. The September 2024 delivery period is 271.90 USD/ton, up 0.75 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session; the December 2024 delivery period is 268.75 USD/ton, up 0.70 USD and the March 2025 delivery period is 266.55 USD/ton, down 3.50 USD.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

According to market consultancy Safras & Mercado (Brazil), as of June 4, the progress of Brazil's 2024/2025 coffee harvest has reached 29%, higher than the 26% of the same period last year and compared to the average of 27% over the past 5 years.

In particular, the harvest progress for Conillon/Robusta coffee has reached 42% of the expected output; for Arabica coffee, it has reached 23% of the expected output, both higher than the average of the past 5 years.

Notably, preliminary reports indicate lower than expected yields and quality of Robusta in Rondônia state, which could force Brazil to revise down its estimate for this year’s Robusta crop. Rondônia state is Brazil’s fifth-largest coffee-growing region and second-largest Robusta producer.

This information has somewhat supported Robusta coffee prices on the world market.

According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil's coffee output this crop could reach 69.9 million bags (60 kg/bag); of which, Arabica coffee output is expected to increase by 7.35% and Robusta coffee output is estimated to increase by 1.4%. These figures are currently slightly higher than forecasts from market research firms.

In addition to supply and demand factors, world coffee prices are also under downward pressure from the continued rise of the USD. Early this morning, June 11, the US Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against other major currencies in the world, continued to increase to over 105 points.

The rise in the value of the US dollar makes commodities priced in this currency, such as coffee, more expensive for investors around the world. Speculators become more “sensitive” when increasing their investments in high-risk financial markets such as the futures market, including the coffee market.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-1262024-gia-ca-phe-tiep-da-giam-manh-325623.html