Welcoming many positive signs

Export growth in both markets and products

According to the General Department of Customs, by the end of August 2024, the total export turnover of goods nationwide reached 265.44 billion USD, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year. Notably, there were 10 groups of goods that increased by over 1 billion USD compared to the same period last year, bringing the export turnover to increase by 29.72 billion USD compared to the same period last year, accounting for 81.5% of the increase in the country's export turnover.

Goods exports grew evenly in all three key commodity groups (Photo: Duc Duy)

Regarding export markets, updated at the end of August, the 10 largest markets all grew strongly. Of which, 6 markets increased by 1 billion USD or more, including: the United States reached 78.2 billion USD, an increase of 16.08 billion USD; the EU reached 34.08 billion USD, an increase of 5.08 billion USD; China reached 38.1 billion USD, an increase of 1.7 billion USD; ASEAN reached 24.45 billion USD, an increase of 2.84 billion USD; South Korea reached 16.83 billion USD, an increase of 1.3 billion USD; Hong Kong (China) reached 8.1 billion USD, an increase of 2.27 billion USD.

Textiles and garments are one of the products with an export turnover of over 10 billion USD. Mr. Le Tien Truong - Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vietnam Textile and Garment Group - said that after 8 months of 2024, the textile and garment industry's export turnover reached 28.6 billion USD, an increase of nearly 7.2% over the same period.

Notably, the export turnover in August reached 4.66 billion USD, up 14.6% over the same period. This is also the month with the highest export turnover ever. With signed orders in the third quarter and orders under discussion in the fourth quarter, there is much hope for the possibility of reaching the target of 44 billion USD in export turnover this year, achieving the high target set at the beginning of the year by the whole industry.

Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan - Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association - informed that in the first 8 months of 2024, leather and footwear exports grew by more than 10%, many markets are recovering. With the current recovery rate, it is expected that leather and footwear exports will reach about 27 billion USD this year.

On the side of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department said that import-export activities achieved good growth due to the more positive developments in the international and domestic context. Specifically, the world economic situation is more positive when the US Federal Reserve (FED) has proposed a roadmap to cut interest rates after a long time.

In addition, the problem of high inventories in markets is gradually being overcome, especially in key export markets that have faced difficulties in 2023 such as the EU and the United States. For the United States, recovering consumer indicators have become an important supporting factor for economic growth.

In addition, Vietnam has also recently upgraded its relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States, promising sustainable development for trade relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, domestically, the Government has taken strong action with many comprehensive support solutions for the economy.

Regarding the US market, the US Federal Reserve (FED) recently decided to cut interest rates and announced that it will continue to reduce interest rates until 2026. Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council - commented that the FED's reversal of monetary policy is a good opportunity for Vietnam's exports and investment. "When the FED reduces interest rates, it will promote investment and consumption, increase demand for Vietnamese goods and services, thereby opening up more export opportunities," said Dr. Can Van Luc.

Analyzing this further, Dr. Can Van Luc said that the FED's interest rate reduction will contribute to the downward trend of global interest rates as many central banks around the world have been following the FED's lead in continuing to reduce interest rates, thereby stimulating consumption, investment, and production of businesses and people. This will help boost Vietnam's export demand in the context of the high openness of the Vietnamese economy and the US and Europe being Vietnam's leading export markets.

There are still many difficulties

However, according to Dr. Can Van Luc, the exchange rate has a significant impact on import and export activities. Currently, the exchange rate has decreased, not increased as sharply as before, which usually means the domestic currency is stronger and the value of foreign currency is reduced. But this is not always favorable for Vietnam's exports.

Because the value of foreign currencies abroad remains high, it will affect the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods. Moreover, Vietnam's exports depend heavily on FDI enterprises, so the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade needs to be carefully considered.

In the footwear industry, a recovery trend is gradually emerging. However, according to Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, the supply of raw materials is still not really strong, causing production costs to increase. Input and labor costs have both increased, while labor costs account for about 25% of product costs. If costs continue to increase, businesses will have difficulty making a profit.

To compete, businesses must innovate technology. However, not all businesses have the resources to invest in new technology, so they must restructure and optimize costs to continue receiving orders.

According to economist Dinh Trong Thinh, export activities are a major driving force for economic growth. With the estimated import-export growth rate in the past 8 months reaching 413 billion USD, the target of 6% growth for the whole year is almost certain to be achieved.

To promote production and business activities as well as promote export activities to achieve the goals set at the beginning of the year, Mr. Dinh Trong Thinh suggested that the Industry and Trade sector must focus on implementing and effectively exploiting opportunities from trade agreements (FTAs); prioritize updating and grasping information about foreign markets; conditions, requirements, and changes in export markets for imported goods... From there, combine with industry associations and export production enterprises to get orders not only in the first quarter of 2025 but for the whole year.

Domestic manufacturing and exporting enterprises must stand on their own two feet. They must produce quality products with Vietnamese brands to conquer international markets, but still dominate the domestic market and promote domestic consumption.

From the perspective of a management agency, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai said that, as the agency in charge of managing and operating import-export activities, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has promptly identified difficulties and risks from export markets to advise and propose solutions to develop export markets. Vietnam's policy of international economic integration and diversification of export and import markets through negotiating and signing new-generation free trade agreements has opened up new market areas, reducing the risk of heavy dependence on a few markets.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-hang-hoa-don-nhieu-dau-hieu-kha-quan-348164.html