Weekly Stock Market Perspective: More attractive buying opportunities when retesting support levels
New buy positions are being reactivated and as the market retests support levels in the coming sessions, there will be more attractive buying opportunities, increasing the probability of winning.
Responding to the positive recovery momentum of the inter-market, the Vietnamese stock market also recorded a strong increase in the last trading session of the week. Accordingly, the VNindex recorded an increase of more than 28 points and closed at 1,252.23 points, recording the strongest increase since the beginning of 2024.
The highlight of the session was the strong improvement in liquidity, nearly double that of the previous session, showing that active demand has improved positively, investors' cautious psychology has loosened and investors are willing to pay a high price to buy stocks. At the same time, the green color also spread widely to all industry groups. In particular, the group of real estate, public investment and securities stocks showed the most outstanding strength with many stocks hitting the ceiling.
In particular, the public investment group responded positively to the Prime Minister's Directive on focusing on Medium-term Public Investment Expenditure, along with efforts to disburse more than VND 450 trillion in the second half of 2024.
Regarding the securities industry, positive information was recorded regarding the prospect of the State Securities Commission passing the final technical barrier on the issue of "non-prefunding" for foreign organizations, expected to be finalized at the end of August, giving the Vietnamese market the opportunity to be considered for upgrading to the Russell FTSE organization in the September review.
According to HSC Securities experts, the positive changes in the market today helped the index successfully conquer the resistance level of 1,240 points (MA20) and return above the threshold of 1,250 points. Not only that, the strong increase also opened a FTD session (follow-through explosion) after 9 recovery sessions since August 5, complete in both quality and quantity. This means that the current recovery is being consolidated with higher sustainability.
Accordingly, new disbursement positions are being reactivated and when the market retests support levels in the coming sessions, there will be more attractive buying opportunities, increasing the probability of winning.
The short-term trend of VN-Index has become more positive. The index is regaining the strong psychological support zone of 1,250 points, and in the short term, it has also broken the current short-term downtrend line (as shown in the figure). VN-Index may face short-term profit-taking pressure in the early sessions of next week before returning to conquer the resistance of 1,250 points once again. Similarly, VN30 may need to adjust before retesting the resistance zone around 1,290 points.
Sharing in the talk show "Finance for everyone" with the topic: "Identifying cash flow and investment opportunities at the end of 2024", securities expert Le Dinh Toan sees the prospect from now until the end of the year of the stock market will be intertwined with both positive and negative factors.
The positive points of Vietnam's macro economy in the first 6 months of the year are GDP growth exceeding forecasts; PMI, foreign investment capital, and international visitors all increased compared to the previous year; corporate profits increased by an average of 26%; interest rates were stable at 5.5%; inflation was also at an average level. In addition, the Vietnamese stock market also had a story of upgrading.
In the coming time, interest rates will likely continue to decrease, if they increase, it will only increase slightly. From now until the end of the year, the FED is forecast to lower interest rates 3 more times and may continue through early 2025. However, it should be noted that if the US economy shows signs of recession, cutting interest rates can still cause the stock market to decline.
Mr. Toan assessed that the stock market has many risks but has the strength of fast liquidity. Vietnam's economy is very positive, the indicators are all good, overall the stock market from now until the end of the year will be good. However, if the question is whether to buy tomorrow, investors should wait, around September there will be reasonable buying points, however, investors need to choose the right business and manage leverage well.
When the Vietnamese stock market is upgraded, Mr. Toan believes that bluechip stocks will "run" first.
Experts are relatively in agreement with the entire securities group - which will be the group that directly benefits from the upgrade story and is sensitive to market fluctuations.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-co-hoi-mua-hap-dan-hon-khi-kiem-dinh-lai-cac-nguong-ho-tro-d222709.html
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