Demand is growing 9-10% per year, but new sources are scarce
On November 13, Vietnam Electricity (EVN) organized an event related to emulation in the enterprise's trade union. During the ceremony, representatives of 12 coal-fired thermal power units under EVN signed an emulation agreement to reduce incidents and ensure the readiness of coal-fired thermal power plants to generate electricity. Mr. Tran Dinh Nhan, General Director of EVN, informed at the ceremony that in 2024, with the expected load growth of 8.96%, the total electricity output of the entire system will be 306.4 billion kWh. Of which, the coal-fired thermal power plants of the 12 units participating in the emulation agreement will contribute 78.6 billion kWh and is likely to be even higher due to the forecast that 2024 will continue to face difficulties in hydrology and weather.
The "competition to reduce incidents" agreement of the electricity industry sounds strange at first, because incidents of coal-fired thermal power plants that have occurred in the past were often due to the plants proactively stopping for maintenance, or running at full capacity to compensate for hydropower, causing overload, incidents, and maintenance... Meanwhile, the hydrological difficulties for hydropower this year were also predicted. Therefore, maintaining stability and no incidents is also an important contribution to the entire industry's electricity output.
Fighting power shortages requires the coordinated participation of many sectors, ministries and local leaders.
Another solution that EVN is urgently implementing is to build a transmission system to buy electricity from Laos. On November 14, EVN worked with the National Power Transmission Corporation (EVNNPT) to speed up the progress of transmission projects to import electricity from Laos and release small hydropower capacity in the Northwest region. According to EVNNPT, this unit is implementing 3 projects to buy electricity from Laos (in the northern region) and implementing 12 projects to release small hydropower capacity in the Northwest region. However, according to EVNNPT leaders, despite many efforts to speed up the investment and construction progress, many projects still face difficulties in compensation for site clearance, conversion of forest use purposes, route navigation, investment approval policies, etc.
The above developments show that the pressure of power shortage in the hot season next year is not small. In fact, the total power capacity of the Vietnamese power system is 80,000 MW, but the available power source of the system is only from 50,000 MW to a maximum of 52,000 MW. In 2023, the peak consumption time will sometimes exceed 52,000 MW. EVN forecasts that the demand for electricity will increase by an average of about 9% per year, equivalent to about 4,000 - 4,500 MW/year. However, the available capacity of the entire system mobilized in the 7 months since the beginning of the year is less than 48,000 MW, not including the amount of electricity imported from China and Laos, accounting for 1.5% of the total mobilized power output, equivalent to 3.56 billion kWh.
Mr. Ngo Duc Lam, former Director of the Department of Technical Safety and Environment (Ministry of Industry and Trade)
According to EVN, the power source expected to be put into operation in 2024 is only 1,950 MW and in 2025 is 3,770 MW, mainly concentrated in the Central and Southern regions. In the North, demand increases by 10% each year, and reserve capacity is low, so it is forecasted that during the peak hot season (around June - July 2024), there may be a shortage of 420 - 1,770 MW of electricity.
Experts say the power system is at risk of facing an imbalance in supply and demand next summer, especially in the Northern region, where new power sources are rare in the next two years and new power sources are still quite vague.
The involvement of ministries, provincial and municipal leaders...
Energy expert Dao Nhat Dinh expressed concern about the risk of power shortages that is still very high. "A problem that is not new, and has been talked about over and over again, is that the plan to implement Power Plan 8 is too slow. If the plan is slow to be approved, how can it be implemented properly and who will do it? There are projects calling for capital, but there are also projects that EVN is responsible for investing in. Without a plan, without a direct electricity purchase and sale mechanism, renewable electricity prices... how can there be a source to supplement soon? Then suppose the South and Central regions have excess electricity, how can it be transmitted to the North while the 500 KV line project, circuit 3, is still not sure to be on time, at the time assigned by the Prime Minister? The efforts of the electricity industry and the will of the industry alone are not enough," said Mr. Dao Nhat Dinh frankly.
Sharing the same view, energy expert Ngo Duc Lam, former Director of the Department of Technical Safety and Environment (Ministry of Industry and Trade), said that the political task that the Government emphasized for the industry and trade sector in general, and the electricity sector in particular, is "absolutely not to let there be a shortage of electricity in any case" related to many sectors and localities. He emphasized: "In a recent meeting, the Government also requested the implementation of a series of solutions to quickly accelerate the progress of electricity projects, build a price mechanism, transparent operation and especially soon have a synchronous legal corridor to attract investment in new power source and grid projects. Notably, the role of the State Capital Management Committee at enterprises should also be considered because it is the unit that holds all state capital, manages, updates progress...
Regarding energy, financial resources for investment, how to allocate money to keep up with progress, the role of the Ministry of Finance at this time is also very important. Then the work of site clearance for transmission line projects through localities is also constantly stuck, this is the task of the chairmen of the relevant provinces and cities. So the story of the electricity industry is actually related to many ministries, branches and localities."
Solving the above problems, according to Mr. Ngo Duc Lam, is to clean up and clearly assign tasks. In the short term, specifically next summer, if subjective reasons are not overcome right now, and there is no good preparation, the power shortage will still be alarming. He said: "It is not natural that thermal power plants must commit to not letting incidents happen and ensuring timely power generation. The overhaul of many coal-fired thermal power plants occurs at the same time as hydropower plants run out of water. Now, the maintenance of thermal power plants must be prepared early, from now. Second, the coal supply for the plant must be sufficient, absolutely not lacking. Third, to prevent drought and extreme water shortages like this year, is there another alternative source?
Fourth, renewable electricity this year and last year were "argued about" because of excess electricity, not being able to be sent to the grid, and not being able to be sold directly... Currently, there is still no mechanism for direct electricity trading, not through EVN; the purchase price of electricity from renewable energy projects is transitional... These problems must be resolved this year, as soon as possible. In the long term, if Power Plan 8 is not implemented soon, ensuring enough electricity until 2030 will still be a challenge."
By 2025, the North may lack electricity of over 3,630 MW and output of about 6.8 billion kWh during the peak dry season because very few new power sources come into operation.
EVN Representative
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