TPO - Experts say the 8% economic growth target set by the Prime Minister this year is quite high. To achieve the target, there needs to be breakthrough policies to support businesses, promote double-digit export growth and effectively spread public investment capital flows.
TPO - Experts say the 8% economic growth target set by the Prime Minister this year is quite high. To achieve the target, there needs to be breakthrough policies to support businesses, promote double-digit export growth and effectively spread public investment capital flows.
Expecting leadership from public investment
Speaking to Tien Phong reporter, Associate Professor, Dr. Pham The Anh - Head of the Faculty of Economics, National Economics University - assessed that the bright spot of Vietnam's economy in the past year was maintaining a stable macro economy, with inflation forecast to be controlled at below 4%. In 2024, Vietnam will also be a country with high economic growth, expected to reach over 7% in the context of many world instabilities.
According to Mr. The Anh, in previous years, Vietnam only talked about economic reform in the narrow scope of tax policies, subsidies or interest rate reduction... to promote economic growth, but now, the Government has expanded its focus on institutions and the business environment, demonstrated through the rearrangement and streamlining of the State apparatus.
Commenting on the growth momentum in 2025, Mr. The Anh said that in the short term, the main driving force will still be public investment, with key projects being completed and a series of new projects being launched this year. For example, in 2025, the Government aims to complete the Long Thanh airport project phase 1 and complete 3,000 km of highways...
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The government aims to complete Long Thanh airport in 2025. Photo: Ha Anh Chien. |
The Government currently estimates public investment capital in 2025 at over VND790,000 billion, a fairly large figure. If approved, this plan will create a large resource that will spread into the economy, creating momentum for growth.
In the medium term, Mr. The Anh said that the Government is determined to implement major programs and projects such as the North-South high-speed railway, nuclear power, and attract "eagles" in the technology sector. These programs will have a profound impact on the economy.
“This is a decisive moment and an important foundation to help Vietnam escape the middle-income trap. Accelerating the disbursement of public investment capital, combined with appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, will boost domestic consumption and strengthen economic recovery momentum,” said Mr. The Anh.
There is a basis for 8% growth
Dr. Nguyen Duc Do - Deputy Director of the Institute of Finance and Economics, Academy of Finance - said that the economic growth target of 8% as set by the Prime Minister this year can be achieved if the world economic context is favorable.
According to Mr. Do, in 2024, exports will reach a record of more than 400 billion USD; many key products will grow beyond expectations. This year, exports will continue to be one of the main drivers of the economy because they are the output of many industries.
To achieve the above goal, this expert said that Vietnam needs to prepare plans to support the economy in case the global economic situation suddenly worsens.
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Exports are expected to continue to be the driving force for growth this year. Photo: Samsung. |
These policies should focus on supporting workers and businesses in the export sector to increase competitiveness and maintain production even in less favorable circumstances. Currently, interest rates are low, so there is not much room for further interest rate reduction. However, the State Bank may need to prepare a plan to continue debt extension for businesses if necessary.
Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Phuc Hien - Lecturer of International Finance, Foreign Trade University (Hanoi) assessed that with the growth results of 2024, the economic growth target for 2025 set by the Government of about 8% is well-founded.
Commenting that exports remain an important driving force, Mr. Hien said that Vietnam needs to continue promoting double-digit export growth, focusing on high-tech, manufacturing and agriculture.
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According to experts, Vietnam needs to continue promoting double-digit export growth, focusing on high-tech, manufacturing and agriculture. Illustrative photo. |
To attract foreign direct investment (FDI), Vietnam needs to prioritize high-tech sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence (AI), digital economy, circular economy, and at the same time encourage domestic private investment.
“This is an important driving force with much room for development. To develop this area, it is necessary to create a favorable business environment, encourage and support start-up businesses, especially in the field of innovation,” said Mr. Hien.
According to the expert, the Government is promoting public investment in transport infrastructure, green energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure. However, in the context of limited budget, it is necessary to identify priorities for investment and invest effectively and sustainably...
Policy needs to be multidimensional and have a roadmap.
Assessing that growth drivers such as public investment, private investment and import-export activities are all maintaining their momentum, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) - noted that 2025 will have many challenges. For example, fluctuations in the world economy and protectionist trade policy trends of the US and major countries may reduce Vietnam's economic growth. Pressure from world oil and commodity prices and exchange rate fluctuations may negatively affect exports, imports and purchasing power.
Along with that, Vietnamese enterprises still face high input costs, uneven and unsustainable order recovery, and increasing demands for digitalization and greening from markets.
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There needs to be a policy to minimize business risks and compliance costs for businesses. Photo: BT. |
Mr. Viet believes that it is necessary to stabilize the macroeconomy associated with faster and stronger growth recovery, avoid hasty thinking, macro policies need to be issued carefully, with multi-dimensional impact assessment and a specific roadmap.
“It is necessary to reform and streamline the State apparatus towards an effective, efficient, modern, transparent, easy-to-understand and easy-to-implement institutional and state management system to reduce business risks and compliance costs,” Mr. Viet said, emphasizing the need to promote the sustainable development momentum of the economy based on new growth models and linked to global trade and investment trends.
The Government needs to have strong solutions to improve the qualifications and skills of the workforce and develop science and technology to improve competitiveness; promote innovative and sustainable business.
On the occasion of the New Year 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh wrote an article "Innovation, creativity, acceleration, breakthrough, bringing the country firmly into the era of national growth, development, wealth, civilization, and prosperity".
The Prime Minister emphasized that 2025 is the year of acceleration and breakthrough to successfully achieve the 2021-2025 socio-economic development plan. The Prime Minister requested that from 2025, maximum efforts must be made to create breakthrough factors to attract investment, strongly promote production and business, and strive to achieve a growth rate of at least 8%, to create a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth from 2026.
Source: https://tienphong.vn/chuyen-gia-noi-ve-dong-luc-giup-viet-nam-tang-truong-8-nam-2025-post1706493.tpo
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