India "swims against the tide" of South Asian politics

South Asia has long been a hotbed of geopolitical competition between major and middle powers. With the rise of India and the US shifting its focus to Asia, the region could see an escalation of confrontation in the coming time.

The article by author Srijan Sharma was published on the Fair Observer website on March 17. (Source: Screenshot)

Difficulties piled up

For India, its traditional sphere of influence has been challenged in recent years as its eastern and western borders have become unstable due to the crises in Myanmar and Bangladesh. New Delhi has also been concerned about the security situation in the northeast, where drug and arms smuggling is on the rise.

India is adopting a cautious diplomatic approach, but this approach is becoming less effective in the face of increasingly complex regional dynamics. Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to increase its strategic depth, especially after tensions in Afghanistan and Bangladesh. In addition, China is strengthening its strong presence in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Recent developments in South Asia and its surrounding region suggest that factors that could work against India are quietly growing.

Meanwhile, across the border, Pakistan is trying to strike a strategic balance by maintaining good relations with Bangladesh, China and Türkiye, with Dhaka included in the Islamabad-Beijing axis to counterbalance New Delhi. While this strategy makes sense in the long term, Pakistan also faces many challenges.

One is the growing threat from the Taliban in Kabul, especially the rise of the ISIS-Khorasan terrorist group that is trying to consolidate its position in Afghanistan.

Second, despite being strategic partners of Pakistan, China and Turkey may have to carefully consider how to handle their relations with Islamabad. During his visit to Pakistan on February 13, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that New Delhi and Islamabad should resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue, unlike in the past when Ankara has always strongly supported Pakistan in its border dispute with India. Meanwhile, China plans to shift its focus to the US, as Washington intends to directly confront Beijing in the South Asian region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sign a joint statement at the 7th meeting of the Türkiye-Pakistan High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council on February 13 in Islamabad. (Source: Pakistan Prime Minister's Office)

The rise of the country on the Ganges

Amid mounting difficulties, India’s deft foreign policy is helping it manage emerging threats while consolidating and expanding its traditional sphere of influence. There are many examples of this.

Regarding relations with Afghanistan, in June 2022, New Delhi sent a delegation to Kabul to discuss re-establishing relations after the Narendra Modi government closed the Indian Embassy in Kabul in August 2021. The delegation was tasked with facilitating the distribution of humanitarian aid to the Afghan people, helping New Delhi build trust with the Taliban immediately after the political transition.

Regarding relations with Bangladesh and Myanmar, after the coup in Dhaka when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina left office to go abroad, New Delhi has been in contact with leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, trying to gain influence and harmonize relations with this country. On the other hand, last year, India invited a rebel group in Myanmar to negotiate on the deteriorating security situation in the North-East border, which affects the state of Manipur.

US President Donald Trump (right) receives Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House on February 13. (Source: AFP)

On a broader scale, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the United States has created dramatic shifts in the regional balance of power. Washington and New Delhi are deepening their strategic ties through the COMPACT and TRUST initiatives to promote multilateral cooperation, especially in technology and defense.

Notably, President Trump has also offered to supply F-35 fighter jets to India. If Prime Minister Modi agrees to the deal, the situation could change, bringing New Delhi into competition with Beijing for air superiority. Along with that, India’s air defense and offensive capabilities against Pakistan would increase significantly. This could affect the China-Pakistan axis.

Despite the volatile situation in West Asia and Europe, India still has the opportunity to expand its influence and promote cooperation with the US. This process will help the South Asian country strengthen multilateral connections and contribute to enhancing New Delhi's position in the international arena. However, India needs to be cautious about the reactions of other countries to avoid unnecessary conflicts.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/an-do-loi-nguoc-do-ng-song-nga-m-chinh-tri-nam-a-308079.html