A series of key export industries such as agricultural products, textiles, footwear... all achieved high turnover growth - the foundation for exports in 2024 to reach unprecedented high numbers.
Predictive numbers
Speaking to VTV Times reporters, a representative of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that since the beginning of the year, a series of key export industries of our country such as agricultural products, textiles, footwear... have all achieved high growth in turnover.
Typically, fruit and vegetable exports have grown steadily at double digits and continuously set new records. In the first 7 months, fruit and vegetable exports reached 3.83 billion USD, up 24.3% over the same period. Exports to South Korea, Japan, China... have grown strongly. With the current momentum and growth, Vietnamese fruit and vegetables can reach a record export turnover of 7 billion USD this year. Durian alone can bring in 3 billion USD in exports.
In addition, data from the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association also shows that the total export turnover of this industry in the past 7 months is estimated at 23.64 billion USD, up nearly 5% over the same period. From now until the end of the year, it is forecasted that Vietnam's textile and garment import and export will continue to be positive, because according to cyclical factors, demand for goods often increases sharply in the last months of the year.
In 2024, the textile and garment industry aims to export 44 billion USD, according to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, this figure can be reached by the entire industry. In parallel with textiles and garments, leather and footwear exports are also growing so rapidly that the industry is completely confident in forecasting that the turnover in 2024 will reach about 26-27 billion USD.
Notably, in general, the latest statistics from the General Department of Customs show that the total export turnover in the second half of July reached nearly 19.9 billion USD, an increase of 22.3% (equivalent to an increase of 3.62 billion USD) compared to the previous period. The results achieved in the second half of July brought the total export turnover of our country in 7 months to nearly 227.5 billion USD, an increase of 16% (equivalent to an increase of 31.34 billion USD).
The representative of the Import-Export Department emphasized: According to the cycle, the demand for goods in the world market will grow strongly at the end of the year, thereby pushing up export turnover and forecasting that it may reach a record number.
Speaking to the press, Mr. Vu Ba Phu - Director of the Department of Trade Promotion (Ministry of Industry and Trade), also emphasized that with the results from the beginning of the year until now, we can completely believe in the possibility that the export growth in 2024 will exceed the 6% target set by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Don't be subjective with unpredictable fluctuations
Despite this optimism, according to economic experts, we still have to make constant efforts and be cautious because the world situation is quite complicated. Currently, the global economy still faces many risks and is difficult to predict when the war and conflict between Russia and Ukraine are still tense, while Israel and Hamas continue to escalate, showing signs of spreading to neighboring countries. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has sent out a message that there will be only one interest rate cut this year.
Not stopping there, according to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), excess capacity in China will increase competitive pressure in the global market. When consumer demand declines, China's surplus goods at cheap prices can be exported to other countries.
"One difficulty that cannot be ignored is that sea freight rates are still very high, especially for our export routes. Some seaports in Asia are congested, ships have to wait a long time to operate, affecting the delivery progress to partners...", Mr. Hai analyzed.
In that context, economic experts said that management agencies and enterprises need to strengthen trade promotion activities associated with e-commerce, digital economy and effectively connect enterprises, localities with the market through Vietnamese trade offices abroad to both have product plans suitable for current market trends and expand the market and market share.
According to Mr. Phu, our localities need to develop economic cooperation strategies and promote trade with foreign markets to expand trade and attract industrial cooperation and investment. In the immediate future, we can consider forming twinning agreements or signing agreements or establishing cooperation mechanisms to create a specific and long-term cooperation framework. Meanwhile, associations and enterprises need to study and improve their ability to access foreign distribution channels through the support of the Industry and Trade sector.
"We recommend that Vietnamese trade offices abroad coordinate with industry associations and businesses to enhance communication and image promotion, in order to improve the competitiveness of products, as well as the brand of Vietnamese export products in foreign markets," Mr. Phu emphasized.
Particularly for the giant neighboring market of China, experts recommend continuing to implement solutions to develop sustainable border trade activities by promoting exports through border gates in the form of official channels; continuing to effectively facilitate the export of agricultural products to this potential market of a billion people.
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