Experts say that Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 will likely decrease in both volume and price compared to the record number in 2024.
2024 records record high
According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam exported a total of 9 million tons of rice in 2024, earning 5.67 billion USD, up 11.1% in volume and 21.2% in value compared to 2023. This is a record volume and export value in the history of the rice industry. At the same time, 2024 is also the 5th consecutive year that rice export value recorded positive growth.
However, the price of this commodity has been on a downward trend in recent months and reached an average of 624 USD/ton in December 2024, continuing to decrease by 0.8% compared to the previous month and 9.2% compared to the same period in 2023.
In 2024, Vietnam's leading rice export markets will still mainly be concentrated in Asia and Africa such as: Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ghana... In which, rice exports to the above markets will increase compared to 2023.
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| Experts say that Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 will likely decrease in both volume and price compared to the record number in 2024 - (Illustration photo). |
In 2024, white rice continued to be the most exported variety last year, reaching 6.75 million tons, worth 4.15 billion USD, a sharp increase of 33.2% in volume and 45.2% in value compared to 2023. This variety accounted for 74.7% of Vietnam's rice export volume in 2024, a sharp increase compared to the proportion of 62.3% of the previous year. On the contrary, fragrant rice exports in 2024 reached 1.55 million tons, worth 1 billion USD, down 20.5% in volume and 15.1% in value compared to 2023.
According to the General Department of Customs, in the fourth quarter of 2024, rice export turnover of provinces and cities such as Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Thap, Soc Trang, and Can Tho increased sharply by double digits compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, especially Tien Giang increased by 198.6%, reaching 50.12 million USD. However, rice export of other provinces and cities such as Hanoi, Long An, Kien Giang, and An Giang decreased significantly.
In 2024, the whole country had 20 provinces and cities participating in rice export activities, a decrease of 4 provinces and cities compared to 2023. Ho Chi Minh City continued to lead the country in rice export in 2024 with a turnover of 1.52 billion USD, an increase of 4.7% over the same period in 2023.
Rice exports in 2025 face many challenges
Experts predict that Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 will likely decrease in both volume and price compared to the record number in 2024.
The reason is due to weakening demand while competition is increasing among producing countries. There is very little room for rice exports in 2025 in the context of the base level in 2024 being already high while there are too many unfavorable factors related to the market, especially when India eases the rice export restriction.
Since the end of last year, many major rice-growing countries have entered the harvest season, including Vietnam, which is entering the winter-spring harvest, causing the price of Vietnamese rice to drop rapidly. At the same time, importers are also in a hurry to sign contracts with Vietnam because they have many new sources.
Therefore, the year-end orders signed for delivery at the beginning of this year are not too many. Traders assess that this year's supply is quite abundant. As of the first half of January 2025, Vietnam's rice export prices have fallen sharply to their lowest level in more than two years, while Indian rice prices remain stable near a 17-month low and Thailand's hit its lowest since April 2023.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Vietnam's rice exports will reach just 7.5 million tons in 2025, down from a record 9 million tons last year. By 2024, Vietnam will be the world's third-largest rice exporter, after India and Thailand, with the Philippines and Indonesia as its main markets. Vietnam's rice exports this year will face challenges due to a possible increase in supply from India and Indonesia's efforts to cut imports. However, exports to China are expected to improve.
| In the export market, Vietnam's rice export prices today are stable compared to yesterday. According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), currently 5% standard rice is at 397 USD/ton; 25% broken rice is at 372 USD/ton; 100% broken rice is at 310 USD/ton. |
Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-gao-doi-mat-voi-nhieu-thach-thuc-373821.html
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