The bloody terrorist attack in Moscow on March 22 could have a major impact on Russia's foreign policy, creating a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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| The terrorist attack in Moscow occurred amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Illustrative photo: Ukrainian artillerymen load ammunition inside a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled gun in the Donetsk region. (Source: AFP) |
To this day, Russians are still in shock after the terrorist attack on March 22 that killed 144 people and injured more than 360. What is noteworthy is that the terrorist attack occurred amid the fierce, persistent and potentially prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict as the two sides have yet to determine victory or defeat.
Potential for conflict escalation
French geographer Jean Radvanyi, an expert on Russia and the Caucasus, warned that this serious event that has shocked Russia risks becoming a real turning point in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and even further, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The incident occurred at a time when Ukrainian forces have stepped up their bombing of infrastructure, especially energy, deep inside Russian territory. This has also led to fierce retaliation from Russia. A day before the terrorist attack, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that two new armies and 30 new units (including 14 divisions and 16 brigades) would be created this year.
Although the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility, the terrorist suspects have been arrested and the incident is still under investigation and trial, Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Russian officials in their statements have not ruled out doubts about Ukraine's role in the incident.
In a televised address on March 24, Mr. Putin said that 11 people involved in the terrorist attack had been detained, including four main suspects. According to the Russian President, the terrorists were caught while trying to escape and move towards Ukraine, where "a door was prepared to cross the border."
On March 28, the Russian Investigative Committee said it had found evidence that the gunmen who carried out the massacre at the Crocus City Hall theater were linked to “Ukrainian nationalists.” The Russian Investigative Committee report clearly stated that the suspects received money from Ukraine in the form of cryptocurrency, which was then used to prepare for the attack.
Li Wei, an expert at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said the concert hall attack did not entirely fit the IS's previous attack model. "Driven by religious extremism, IS members often carry out 'lone wolf' or 'suicide' attacks," he argued.
At the same time, Mr. Li Wei noted that if IS changes the core characteristics of religious extremism, it will no longer be IS.
According to Mr. Li Wei, it is unlikely that the Ukrainian government would engage in terrorist activities, but if any extremist forces in Ukraine were found to be involved, it would put Ukraine at a disadvantage.
Meanwhile, Mr. Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the US and the West hope that the culprit behind the incident is a terrorist organization because if Ukraine is involved, they will lose the legitimacy in supporting Kiev.
Some analysts note that the possibility of extremists in Ukraine being involved in the attack cannot be ruled out, given the pessimism about the conflict and the dwindling support from the West. However, it is too early to assign blame for the attack and the final conclusions will be determined by the ongoing investigation.
Analysts say the incident could have a major impact on Russia's foreign policy, creating a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prompting a new phase of escalation, depending on the results of Russia's investigation.
The door to negotiation is still open.
An underground gas storage site in Ukraine was hit on March 24 in the latest Russian missile attack on power grid facilities. On the same day, Kiev reported that Russia had hit critical infrastructure in the western Lviv region with missiles in a major airstrike.
In an interview with CBS News on March 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needs more help from its allies to respond to a major Russian offensive that could come in late May or June. Ukrainian military officials have warned that Moscow may be preparing for a new major offensive, mobilizing a force of 100,000 troops.
Wang Xiaoquan said the latest attacks showed that the situation on the battlefield was changing. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could also affect the security situation in other regions. Terrorists may see geopolitical conflicts as an opportunity to launch attacks, warning many countries to be on guard.
In a speech to Russian Air Force pilots on March 27, Putin dismissed claims by some Western leaders that Russia was planning to invade NATO countries.
At the same time, the Russian leader also warned countries not to support fighter jets destined for Ukraine. Mr. Putin stressed that if F-16 fighter jets provided to Ukraine by Western allies operate from airfields in other countries, those bases would be “legitimate targets” for Russia to attack.
Despite all the tough statements, Russia still leaves the door open for negotiations to end the conflict. In the Izvestia daily on March 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov affirmed that if Moscow’s interests are respected, they are ready to ensure the legitimate interests of other participants in the negotiations on the Ukraine issue.
Regarding China's proposal for a solution to the Ukrainian issue, Lavrov stressed the need to lift unilateral Western sanctions imposed long before Moscow began its special military operation in Ukraine. According to the Russian Foreign Minister, this is important and will be the basis for negotiations aimed at ensuring the security of all parties involved in the process.
Foreign Minister Lavrov also said that the negotiations cannot be based on the peace formula proposed by Ukrainian President Zelensky and promoted by the West and the United States, but must be based on a serious analysis of current security issues and ensuring Russia's legitimate security interests. At the same time, the Russian diplomat also confirmed that he will meet with ambassadors of several countries to discuss the situation in Ukraine in early April.
It can be seen that the terrorist attack in Moscow on March 22 has more or less affected the Russia-Ukraine conflict and will likely have more impact when the investigation results are officially announced. Hopefully, strategists will recognize the unpredictable consequences of instability and escalating conflict, and at the same time assess the importance of joining hands in solidarity in the fight against terrorism to make the right decisions.
(according to Reuters, Kyivindependent, NY Times, Global Times)
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