Faced with the developments in the USD exchange rate in recent days, commercial banks have continuously adjusted prices, while the State Bank has intervened to stabilize the market.
On March 24, the State Bank raised the central exchange rate to 24,831 VND, an increase of 18 VND. Commercial banks adjusted the USD price to the highest level ever, with Vietcombank listing 25,435 - 25,825 VND, BIDV 25,460 - 25,820 VND, and Eximbank 25,430 - 25,810 VND. Compared to the beginning of the year, the exchange rate increased by about 1%.
On the free market, USD fluctuated around 25,810 - 25,900 VND, close to 26,000 VND.
According to forecasts from economic experts, the USD/VND exchange rate in 2025 may continue to increase slightly. KBSV Securities Company forecasts that the exchange rate at the end of 2025 will be around 26,000 VND/USD, up 2% compared to 2024. UOB Bank forecasts that the USD/VND exchange rate may reach 26,000 VND in the second and third quarters of 2025, then decrease slightly by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC) has a scenario that the exchange rate at the end of 2025 may be at 26,200 VND/USD if macroeconomic factors develop as expected.
However, it is worth noting that although the USD exchange rate at commercial banks increased sharply, the exchange rate on the free market decreased slightly and has not reached the 26,000 VND/USD mark. And commercial banks listed the highest USD selling price at 25,825 VND/USD, lower than the State Bank's selling price of 26,003 VND/USD.
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| The USD/VND exchange rate has increased about 1% since the beginning of the year. |
The State Bank listing a higher USD selling price than commercial banks is a rare development. This reflects a number of important factors in the exchange rate management policy and the market situation. The reason for this move, according to some financial experts, is that the operator is ready to intervene to stabilize the foreign exchange market.
If in the past the State Bank often listed the USD selling price lower than commercial banks to support liquidity, the Central Bank's increase in the selling price to 26,003 VND/USD this time could be a signal to regulate the market, helping to limit speculation and reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Second, the supply and demand of USD is changing: USD demand is increasing due to import and international payment factors, while USD supply is still abundant thanks to exports, FDI and remittances. This makes it unnecessary for commercial banks to push USD selling prices too high.
Finally, setting a higher selling price will help limit commercial banks from buying USD from the State Bank, reducing pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
The USD/VND exchange rate situation from the beginning of 2025 to now has had some notable developments: In January 2025, the bank exchange rate fluctuated around 25,500 - 25,700 VND/USD; in the free market, there were transactions around 25,750 - 25,850 VND/USD.
Entering February 2025, the exchange rate increased slightly due to the impact of US monetary policy, commonly around 25,600 - 25,800 VND/USD. And from the beginning of March until now, on March 24, the exchange rate reached a record high of 25,800 - 25,900 VND/USD. The free market at times reached 26,000 VND/USD.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/ty-gia-da-tang-1-ke-tu-dau-nam-379801.html
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