Wagner Prigozhin, the mafia boss, reached a deal to move to Belarus after the riots, but faces an uncertain future as Minsk sets out legal conditions for their stay.
At a press conference in the capital Minsk on July 6, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko suddenly announced that Wagner tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin and members of this private military corporation are not currently in Belarus and it is unclear whether they have moved to take refuge in this country or not.
"He is in St. Petersburg or maybe this morning he went to Moscow or somewhere else. But now he is not on the territory of Belarus," President Lukashenko said. This announcement contradicts what Mr. Lukashenko had said earlier, and is not similar to the agreement that the Belarusian president brokered between the Kremlin and Prigozhin to end the rebellion on June 24.
Under the deal, Wagner would go to Belarus and be granted immunity from prosecution after ordering the withdrawal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at the time that the deal was reached because Prigozhin and Lukashenko had known each other for "a long time, about 20 years." But on July 6, Lukashenko said that President Vladimir Putin was Prigozhin's longtime friend, as the two had known each other for about 30 years.
Mick Krever and Matthew Chance, two analysts of CNN , commented that the leaders of Russia and Belarus now seem to not want to be considered Prigozhin's "best friend".
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in Moscow, Russia in April. Photo: Reuters
One of the biggest causes of Prigozhin's rebellion was a decree issued by Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, requiring Wagner fighters to sign contracts directly with the Russian government.
Wagner tycoon steadfastly refused, fearing that Wagner would come under the direct control of the Ministry of Defense, effectively eroding his power. However, signing a government contract was a condition that President Lukashenko put forward for accepting Wagner into Belarusian territory.
If troops are deployed in Belarus, the Russian private military corporation will have to sign a legally binding contract with clear terms, Mr Lukashenko said. He said Wagner's operating mechanism would be regulated by law or presidential decree.
“If Wagner is deployed here, they will protect our interests just like the Belarusian army,” he said.
This means that Prigozhin will have to accept the conditions he once rejected and use military means to fight back. If he does not sign the contract with the Belarusian government, Wagner and his loyalists will be left with no place to go, with all sides turning their backs on him.
It is unclear whether this is the reason for Prigozhin's return to Russia. A businessman in St. Petersburg confirmed that Wagner had returned to the city and had received back money and weapons that were seized by Russian security services in raids after the riot.
“The riots were not the end for Prigozhin,” the businessman said on July 5. “They returned all his money. They even returned his Glock pistol and other weapons.”
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the Russian political analysis firm, said the Kremlin appeared to be giving Prigozhin time in Russia to sort out his complex business network. Stanovaya believes Prigozhin would not be in Russia without Putin's permission.
"President Putin did this not because he was afraid of Prigozhin or had no other choice, but because he saw it as a simpler way. That means he no longer considered Prigozhin a danger," she said.
At a press conference in Minsk, President Lukashenko stressed that the Russian leader would not “destroy” Prigozhin, and asserted that Wagner’s rebellion did not weaken Putin’s power. “This only makes him more focused and determined to defend the country and face challenges,” he said.
Mr Lukashenko, a close and loyal ally of President Putin, also reaffirmed his enduring friendship with the Russian leader. He said that even in times of tension, "we have communication channels and within minutes we can arrange a conversation or meet face-to-face for hours. We are in the same boat."
The Belarusian leader said he and President Putin would soon meet and discuss Wagner's future.
"I don't think there is any problem with Wagner working in the interests of Russia. Such a unit should not be lost," Mr. Lukashenko said, commenting that Wagner is a very strong fighting unit.
Wagner's 24 Hours of Rebellion. Source: AFP, Reuters, TASS
But what will happen next to Prigozhin remains a mystery, as neither Belarus nor Russia seem willing to directly address the man.
"We do not monitor his actions. We do not have the ability and do not want to do so," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 6, when asked about Prigozhin's current whereabouts.
David Silbey, a history professor at Cornell University in New York, said Mr Peskov's remarks showed Russia was trying to downplay the role of Wagner.
“Russia clearly has the capacity to monitor Prigozhin’s every move, and they are certainly doing so now that Wagner is back in the country,” Silbey said. “But it’s a way of marginalizing him, that Prigozhin is now a thing of the past.”
Wagner's future became even more uncertain when President Lukashenko said Prigozhin was not eliminated after the uprising because Putin "is not a cruel and vindictive person". However, Wagner's move to Belarus "will depend on the decision of the Russian leadership and Wagner", Mr Lukashenko said.
Robyn Dixon and Catherine Belton, two analysts of the Washington Post , commented that this announcement by the President of Belarus implies that Mr. Putin could reverse the agreement with Wagner at any time.
While Mr Lukashenko has left the door open for Prigozhin to move to Belarus, the two sides have a clear conflict of interest, according to Pavel Slunkin, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"Prigozhin is determined to maintain his power over Wagner, which provides him with financial benefits, security and political influence. Meanwhile, Lukashenko will also seek to fully or partially control Wagner, asserting his position against Prigozhin," Slunkin said.
According to Slunkin, it is clear that Prigozhin paid a high price for risking everything from relations with Russia, military influence and even his life with his impulsive act of rebellion.
"Prigozhin's decision to withdraw his troops prevented the destruction of Wagner and avoided bloodshed, but it also destroyed his image as a trustworthy commander in the eyes of the Russian public and leadership. His decision to send troops close to Moscow last month made him look like a traitor, a loser and a coward," Slunkin said.
Thanh Tam (According to CNN, Washington Post, BelTa )
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