(NLDO)- Experts predict that the stock market in 2025 will have strong waves, even "convulsions", which can make investors seasick.
Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan - General Director of Dong A Securities Joint Stock Company (DAS)
Cash flow will be cleared
In 2024, due to the impact of exchange rates, many foreign investors will reduce their investment proportion. But now that the exchange rate has decreased, the stock market will be more positive. Previously, foreign investors expected the US to maintain high interest rates, so they gradually sold. But now that the exchange rate has decreased, the Vietnamese currency is not afraid of devaluation, so it is likely that foreign investors will return. In addition, foreign investors are worried about inflation if Vietnam supplies money, but the money they sell is temporarily sheltering in the country. This is a positive opportunity for the Vietnamese market.
On the contrary, the growth rate of enterprises in 2024 is relatively good, especially in the banking industry, except for small enterprises with low growth. A series of enterprises in the industrial park real estate sector achieved positive profits. Particularly for real estate enterprises, the difficulties from bonds have also been gradually resolved. Currently, many enterprises have mobilized new bonds, which is a favorable condition for the stock market in 2025.
However, there is an unstable scenario, the upgrading of the stock market, although planned, is still slow, which is also what makes investors reduce their expectations. However, it can be said that in March, Vietnam is likely to be included in the upgrade list, so it will be an attractive point for investors.
For the macro economy, the most important thing is that GDP growth in 2024 may be high, but the growth rate of enterprises must certainly be higher. And with P/E (price to earnings) still at a positive level as it is now (about 12 times) and the growth rate of listed enterprises reaching 18%, the market is still attractive.
When the market is upgraded, it will be positive in the near future. In the short term, the cash flow is not ready, but I believe that with solutions to strongly promote public investment and infrastructure investment on many important routes, in the next 3 years, the stock market will attract cash flow again.
Speaking more about cash flow, although it has not grown, with margin trading reaching nearly 10 billion USD, while market liquidity is only about 15,000 billion VND, it is a paradox. However, the fact that margin is increasing but not increasing shows that cash flow is concentrated elsewhere. That is also an important point that investors need to observe in 2025.
I think when businesses restructure their cash flow and return to good capital prices from banks, the confidence of domestic and foreign investors will return.
In addition, the net withdrawal of 4 billion USD from foreign investors in 2024 requires other investors to respond. Domestic investors have been "stuck" with this cash flow, unable to release it, resulting in low liquidity. I believe and expect that in 2025 this cash flow will be cleared and return after the Lunar New Year 2025.
Dr. Nguyen Anh Vu - Head of Banking and Finance Department, Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City
Expectations from new cash flow
Talking about the stock market in 2025, investors certainly expect a high possibility of market upgrade. From there, they will welcome foreign capital from investment ETFs. Because many studies show that after being upgraded to emerging markets, frontier markets will increase quite strongly, including attracting foreign capital many times.
In addition, another important foundation of the Vietnamese stock market is the force of new investors participating quite actively. In 2024 alone, more than 2 million new accounts have been added. This includes the younger generation, investors with a new perspective, who are good at technology and have an investment appetite that can accept risks and they understand the stock market, are interested in stocks, not just gold, real estate like the 6x-7x generation...
Maybe with this generation of investors, their initial investment amount is not much, but the ability to increase in the future is very good, they themselves will create a generation of sustainable stock investors for the market.
The stock market in 2025 is expected to have waves and an upward trend.
Besides, I have observed that recently investor tastes have changed a lot, organizations and open-end funds attract more professional and stable fundamental investors.
Regarding interest rates, 2025 will certainly be stable, because the Government has promoted economic growth, so the policy of maintaining low interest rates will be maintained. But to attract foreign capital, I think new investors need a new story. Especially mergers and acquisitions, we need to create more cash flow-related incentives for investors to pay attention to the stock market.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Research and Development, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company
Stock market in 2025 will have strong "waves"
Looking at the macro economy, 2025 will be a year of good growth, arguably the best since 2016. However, whether the Vietnamese stock market will increase in line with the macro economy is another story.
Because the increase or decrease of Vietnamese stocks is affected by two factors: macroeconomics and cash flow psychology. If the macro is stable, the market will be favorable, but cash flow psychology can greatly affect investors. In which, the uncertainty from the world is a big variable, especially from the decisions of US President Donald Trump.
Accordingly, Mr. Trump's decisions in the face of the US-China trade-economic tensions, from tax policies, immigration of the people... will greatly affect the US economy in the future and affect the psychology of domestic and foreign investors.
Remember, in 2017, the stock market, although still on an upward trend, had a strong "convulsion". Therefore, in 2025, this trend may return but will follow an unclear scenario. It is highly likely that Mr. Trump will make a decision that causes trade tensions between the US and China and other countries, although it has not reached its peak. For example, increasing tariffs on products imported into the US by 19-15%...
Or with the request to benefit the stock market, the request for the US Federal Reserve (FED) to reduce is there but not yet the climax.
It's really hard to predict what the market will be like in the future, but I think it's highly likely that President Trump will create things that are beneficial to the US economy and the stock market will move up.
With a frontier stock market like Vietnam, there are still many speculators, and psychological factors are even more strongly affected. Therefore, even if he only made a "light" statement on social media, it could cause the Vietnamese stock market to "convulse" strongly. Therefore, it would be very bad if any investor was afraid of "seasickness".
However, upgrading the market is an important catalyst. If the timing is right, the stock market in 2025 may explode, with a clearer trend and not stagnant like in 2025. In particular, there will be a return of foreign investors when the IPO wave (initial public offering) of large enterprises attracts foreign cash flow back.
I predict market liquidity this year will be around 25,000 billion VND/session.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-2025-co-the-lam-nha-dau-tu-say-song-196250129184935251.htm
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