After the Lunar New Year holiday, the Vietnamese stock market started the new trading week with a sharp decline on February 3 due to the impact of the Trump administration's announcement of imposing high import tariffs on goods exported from Canada, Mexico and China.

However, the market quickly stabilized and recovered in the session on February 4, when the US announced a one-month delay in imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The two neighbors made concessions.

China is different. The US has decided to impose a 10% tariff on its goods, and Beijing has also retaliated. China has imposed a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas imported from the US and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural equipment.

Trump appears to be postponing his scheduled talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping after China’s latest tariff move. The trade war between the world’s two largest economies has begun.

Stock markets around the world fluctuated in different directions. Vietnamese stocks continued to increase in the last 3 sessions of the week, from February 5-7. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,275 points, up slightly by 0.7% compared to the closing level before the holiday. At one point, the VN-Index almost reached 1,280 points in the last session of the week.

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The stock market fluctuated strongly at the beginning of the new year. Photo: HH

Domestically, supporting information continues to be good business results of many pillar stocks, including banking stocks, some large real estate corporations, retail, consumer...

In addition, the information that the Government plans to submit to the National Assembly an adjustment of the GDP growth target for 2025 from 6-6.5% to 8% and loosen the inflation target (CPI) to 4.5-5%... is a factor that positively affects stock prices.

Banking stocks, often referred to as the “king” stocks, have strong appeal to cash flow and are the factor that helped the VN-Index maintain its green color in the last session of the week. Strong gainers include Vietinbank (CTG), BIDV (BID), Techcombank (TCB), MBBank...

Some other stock groups also attracted cash flow, such as minerals (MSR, BMC), pharmaceuticals (IMP, DHT)...

However, a worrying signal is that foreign investors continued to sell strongly in the first week of the new year of At Ty, with more than 4,200 billion VND, focusing on many bluechips such as Masan (MSN), Vinamilk (VNM), FPT... In 2024, foreign investors net sold a record of more than 94,000 billion VND.

It can be seen that the stock market started the year of At Ty 2025 positively and enthusiastically, bringing expectations for a year of good growth. However, the market also has many potential risks due to the lack of supporting information.

Testing the resistance zone of 1,280-1,300 points

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy Department, VnDirect Securities Analysis Division, analyzed that the Government is very determined to promote growth and this implies that fiscal policies, especially monetary policies, will continue to be strongly expanded in 2025.

According to Mr. Hinh, this trend has a positive impact on asset channels, including stocks. At the same time, the January macroeconomic data released by the General Statistics Office on February 6 shows that the economy in 2025 has a quite positive start.

Despite being affected by the long holiday, industrial production (IIP) and realized public investment still grew positively compared to the same period despite fewer working days.

It can be seen that the economic growth has accelerated since the beginning of this year, not slowing down due to the holiday mentality like previous years. The current context is helping to improve the psychology of domestic investors.

However, in the new week (February 10-14), according to VNDirect experts, the VN-Index will test the resistance zone of 1,280-1,300 points. This is a very strong resistance zone that the index cannot overcome in 2024.

In the context of foreign investors continuing to net sell and domestic cash flow not being able to pull the market up alone, VN-Index is unlikely to increase immediately but needs to accumulate in this area for a while longer, before strong enough supporting information appears and gathers enough momentum to overcome the above resistance zone.

According to a stock expert, in the new week, the early wave of the year has faded, the 2024 business results season is over. This is also the time when there is usually very little information from businesses. If foreign investors continue to sell net, the pressure on the stock market will be quite large.

Foreign investors have not stopped net selling partly because the gap between domestic and foreign interest rates remains large. Moreover, emerging and frontier markets are potentially at risk from the threat of a global trade war.

VN-Index may also be affected by shock drops from major stock markets around the world, due to Mr. Trump's strong policies.

Mr. Quang Hinh believes that the stock market may move sideways and accumulate, and cash flow will quickly circulate between groups of stocks to seek short-term opportunities.

The probability of breaking through the strong resistance zone of 1,280-1,300 points is low.

However, investors are waiting for growth-supporting policies, such as reducing interest rates, increasing public investment and institutional reforms... to realize ambitious economic growth targets in 2025. These policies can create positive impacts on the stock market, helping businesses increase profits and attract investment.

On the other hand, there are challenges such as potential inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and unstable world economy...

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