The state-owned banking group is still leading and the lending market share is mainly concentrated in the 'Big 4' group. Four banks (including Agribank) account for 45% of the market share.
State-owned banks have large lending market share - Photo: QUANG DINH
Banks have not yet announced their financial reports for the fourth quarter of 2024, but estimated figures show that the "Big 4" group (Vietcombank, Vietinbank, BIDV, Agribank) will continue to set new peaks in profits in 2024.
Speaking with Tuoi Tre Online , the director of research at a securities company said that the "Big 4" banking group has many advantages in both mobilization and lending.
"The bond channel has not recovered, businesses still depend on credit capital, credit growth is still high despite economic difficulties. Lending interest rates have decreased but not significantly while mobilization interest rates are low, gradually increasing towards the end of the year," he said.
4 banks account for nearly half of the market share
Most analysis reports from securities companies assess Vietcombank (VCB), Vietinbank (CTG), BIDV (BID) (except Agribank because it is not listed)... as banks with competitive advantages in capital costs, thereby giving them many opportunities to maintain NIM (net interest) and increase market share in the context of recovering credit demand.
VPBank Securities Analysis Department (VPBanks) said that the state-owned banking group is still leading and the lending market share is mainly concentrated in this "Big 4" group. 4 banks (including Agribank) account for 45% of the market share.
MBB, VPB, and TCB account for significant market shares, but the top three private banks' lending is only approximately equal to BIDV's lending alone.
Data: Consolidated financial statements
At Vietcombank, the bank did not give a figure, only saying that pre-tax profit in 2024 continued to be the highest in the banking industry and completed the assigned plan.
With the 5% growth target set at the beginning of last year, Vietcombank's consolidated pre-tax profit is estimated to exceed VND43,300 billion, and separately VND42,500 billion. This level continues to break the record set last year.
According to SSI, VCB's profit increased beyond forecast due to net interest income, increased asset quality, and a sharp decrease in credit provisions, although these improvements had to offset a nearly 15% decrease in operating income over the same period.
At BIDV, the bank announced that its pre-tax profit in 2024 is estimated at VND30,006 billion (equivalent to more than USD1.1 billion), an increase of 12.4% over the previous year.
With this profit, BIDV is the second most profitable bank in the system, after Vietcombank. Like its three "brothers", BIDV has a large lending market share.
BIDV also has the largest asset size by the end of 2023 in the entire banking industry, reaching more than VND2.3 million billion. Of which, the retail segment contributes the largest proportion to BID's credit structure, reaching 44%, according to data from KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV).
Meanwhile, at VietinBank, this bank revealed that its profit reached and exceeded the set plan. The figure is estimated at about 26,300 billion VND, an increase of 8.7% compared to 2023.
According to an analyst from VPBanks, Vietinbank's lending potential is large, always in the top 4 largest in the market. The credit structure has shifted positively to the retail and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) segments. The recovery of SME businesses, despite the cautious mentality, still creates a driving force for capital demand.
Previously, CTG's retail segment in the third quarter of 2024 grew by 11.8% compared to the beginning of the year, 1.7 times higher than the growth of large corporate customers.
Not to mention, Vietinbank's FDI segment also grew by 17.8% compared to the beginning of the year, showing that the bank has an advantage over other banks in FDI credit products and is absorbing credit from the good FDI wave, according to VPBank experts.
Sharing more, Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Director of Analysis of MB Securities (MBS) - said that state-owned banks are in the group that manages costs well.
"Last year, the banking industry tended to reduce the opening of branches, transaction offices, ATMs, and increase digitalization and online. In addition, in the period of 2018 - 2020, many banks had to invest in core banking, and now the depreciation is almost complete," said Ms. Hien.
Banking Industry Forecast 2025: Increasingly Fierce
According to VPBanks experts, net interest income increased compared to the same period due to more positive credit growth and more attractive capital costs (due to low deposit interest rates).
But when looking at NIM, it is easy to see that competition is even fiercer in the banking industry when most of them have decreased compared to the same period. "The decrease in NIM is in both the state-owned and private sectors, not just in the private sector as before," VPBanks experts said.
This shows that the banking industry may be entering a saturation cycle as interest rates in Vietnam will continue to stay at the current level, so it is very important for banks to diversify their non-interest income sources.
However, non-interest income of most banks decreased last year, except for some cases that recorded unusual income such as LPB and SHB. One reason is that the life insurance cross-selling market has recovered but not significantly.
Forecasting the banking industry's 2025 profit, the ACB Securities (ACBS) analysis group forecasts an increase of nearly 15% compared to 2024. Non-interest income alone is forecast to grow slowly at 8.5% due to the forecast of continued difficulties in the insurance cross-selling segment.
Ms. Hoang Viet Phuong - Director of Analysis and Investment Consulting at SSI - said that in the early stages of economic recovery, many banks still face difficulties in resolving bad debts as well as finding ways to control debts with potential credit risks.
However, SSI experts believe that the recovery of the Northern real estate market will somewhat improve investor sentiment and confidence.
"We expect this to gradually spread to the Southern market in the coming time. In case the real estate market recovers faster than expected and legal issues are resolved in 2025, banks with a high proportion of outstanding loans to the real estate sector will benefit," SSI experts predicted.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/nho-dau-4-ong-lon-ngan-hang-lai-khung-toi-gan-5-ti-usd-20250115185524366.htm
Comment (0)