The art of "walking the tightrope" and trying to do something difficult

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Ukraine for just a few hours but will certainly do a lot, not only for India's benefit but also for the Russia-Ukraine conflict situation.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Italy in June 2024. (Source: Hindustan Times)

Don't want to lose what you have

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Ukraine on August 23 will be of particular interest to Russia, as India seeks to navigate its relationship with two traditionally antagonistic partners, Russia and the West.

India is one of the few countries that has had growing trade and diplomatic ties with both sides since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, sparking global tensions and leading to sanctions against the Kremlin.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has sought to maintain a neutral stance throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but has faced criticism for maintaining close trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow.

Now, India appears to be seeking closer ties with Ukraine through Prime Minister Modi's visit to Kiev this week, which came at the invitation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Mr Modi's visit will be the first by an Indian head of state to Ukraine since diplomatic relations between the two countries were established more than 30 years ago, when the European country gained independence in 1991.

Rick Rossow, an expert on US-India policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said India has a "much deeper" relationship with Russia but wants to improve its "young" bilateral relationship with Kiev.

"In the 2021-22 financial year, India's goods trade with Ukraine was only about $3.4 billion compared to $13 billion with Russia. Moscow has provided New Delhi with access to advanced weapons that other major manufacturers such as the US have only recently approved for export to India...

However, India also has students studying in Ukraine, buys defense equipment from Ukraine, and Ukraine is one of India's 50 largest trading partners,” expert Rick Rossow analyzed, concluding that the relationship between India and Ukraine is “not insignificant.”

Historical turning point

According to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, this will be a “landmark and historic” visit.

At a press conference on the visit, Tanmaya Lal, Director General of the Western Department of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, asserted that New Delhi has substantive and independent relations with both Russia and Ukraine. The visit will build on the continued and long-standing cooperation between India and Ukraine.

“Lasting peace can only be achieved through mutually acceptable options. On our part, India continues to engage with all stakeholders,” Tanmaya Lal said.

The Ukrainian side said that when the leaders of the two countries meet in person on August 23, Prime Minister Modi and President Zelensky will discuss bilateral relations and multilateral cooperation.

Relations between Ukraine and India are certainly at a new stage of development compared to those between New Delhi and Moscow.

Earlier, Prime Minister Modi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in July, his first visit to the Kremlin since 2019. During the meeting, the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the ground was very fierce and received mixed reactions from the international community.

Despite those comments, President Putin and Prime Minister Modi greeted each other with a warm hug, with Prime Minister Modi calling President Putin a “dear friend” and praising the “mutual trust and respect” between them.

India, along with China, Türkiye and several Middle Eastern countries, is seen as one of Russia's few international partners with the potential to act as a future mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

At present, the peace process between Moscow and Kiev remains a distant prospect as the conflict is in a tense phase and both sides still have many differences on the terms of a ceasefire.

Bridge for Peace

Harsh V. Pant, Vice President of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), said that India could use its influence to take up peace initiatives in the future.

“I think Prime Minister Modi has always been attentive to Ukraine because fundamentally, India has a great interest in ensuring that there is a stable security structure in Europe that meets the aspirations of both sides. What India has tried to do is to orient its response to Russia-Ukraine relations in particular and Russia-West relations in general,” Pant assessed.

Mr Pant said that Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine had highlighted India’s desire to end the conflict and “have both sides actually come to the negotiating table”. Mr Pant added that from India’s perspective, without Russia at the negotiating table, no solution could be reached.

Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian ambassador to Myanmar and fellow at the Mumbai-based foreign policy think tank Gateway House, also shared the same view. He added: “Russia is a long-standing traditional ally and Ukraine also has very friendly relations with India. Striking this balance is a difficult task, especially when Ukraine receives strong support from the West.”

According to Mr. Bhatia, New Delhi is not concerned that the visit to Kiev could jeopardize relations between India and Russia.

In recent months, Kiev has repeatedly sought India’s support in resolving the conflict with Russia. In March this year, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba paid an official visit to India to encourage New Delhi to participate in the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland in June.

Despite participating in the conference, like many other countries, India chose not to sign the joint statement because the discussions did not include Russia. India's Ministry of External Affairs said that its participation in the conference was in line with its consistent approach to facilitating peaceful and lasting resolution of conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy.

In addition, analysts say Prime Minister Modi's visit to Ukraine will help India maintain balance in its foreign policy.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/thu-tuong-an-do-tham-ukraine-nghe-thuat-di-tren-day-va-thu-lam-mot-viec-kho-283535.html